Black Monday

[winner69]

bubbles typically collapse in not one, but a series of capitulations - each punctuated by a "fast, furious, prone-to failure" recovery


this chart is popular among market historians and doing the rounds at the moment

[alokdhir]

Like we discussed with Hoop ...level of 4800 is not easy to cross this time ...we will end up taking support around 4500 ...hopefully and then reattempt to cross the most important and transformational level of 4800 ....should happen in last qtr of this year .

Lets see if that happens ...ie ending the year over 4800 or ending the year below 4500 !!!

[winner69]

S&P 3500 By Year End If QT Continues

The Fed is not the only game in town, but they are the biggest game in town. While many other factors account for stock price performance, liquidity may be the most important to grasp.


https://realinvestmentadvice.com/sp-...f-qt-continues

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...SAN3XKWCYM4LQ/

Not all are gloomy ...its becoming better ....so I am pretty hopeful we will end the year higher then where we are at present ....even 12500 possible !!!

[bull....]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...SAN3XKWCYM4LQ/

Not all are gloomy ...its becoming better ....so I am pretty hopeful we will end the year higher then where we are at present ....even 12500 possible !!!

but the nzx didnt even get over its 50% retracement or 200 d m/a yet

[bull....]

sp500 retreated off 200d last night in an over brought condition though. lets see how it behaves going forward after a strong bounce from lows.

sp 500 heading down nicely off that 200d m/a , us dollar still working , rates heading up again . powell at jackson hole big event this week .... hawkish surely

[alokdhir]

Expected pull back ...almost all expected it thats why its going down so fast as all were ready for this .

Big question is where it will take support eventually ? IMO wont be making new low ...so we may have a shallow pull back and another attempt at 200DMA or a little deeper pull back and make bigger cycle higher low then before
Only time will tell

[bull....]

Expected pull back ...almost all expected it thats why its going down so fast as all were ready for this .

Big question is where it will take support eventually ? IMO wont be making new low ...so we may have a shallow pull back and another attempt at 200DMA or a little deeper pull back and make bigger cycle higher low then before
Only time will tell

you wont be happy to hear saudi not happy with oil price fall , they might want to cut production to ramp price higher higher inflation again

[peat]

IMO wont be making new low ...

yeh thats what I'm thinkin.... I'm seeing bullish patterns on lots of charts. But I dont think equities are ready for a new bull market yet, it will more likely find a new level higher than here and do some consolidation around that level

[alokdhir]

yeh thats what I'm thinkin.... I'm seeing bullish patterns on lots of charts. But I dont think equities are ready for a new bull market yet, it will more likely find a new level higher than here and do some consolidation around that level

Agree fully ...as conditions not right for new bull market ....but not that bad to make new lows ...so range trading till conditions improve .

My guess is 11400 -12200 or 11700 -12500 ....slowly slowly it will shift upwards while doing waves ...