Black Monday

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=winner69;974198]Alokdhir ..I see 10 year govt over 4% again

Wonder if it will head back to 6% odd like it did in GFC[/QUOTE

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ba...?mod=home-page

GFC was a different matter and it was handled very poorly by Central Banks ....at that time if they had provided liquidity to totally frozen financial markets then it would have been a much easier problem to handle ...they let it become very big ...when one big tree caught fire ...they let all others also burn before trying to help ....unlike Covid times ...all Central Banks took decisive prompt action ....which helped world recover fast from much bigger disaster possibility ...this inflation is much easier to tackle then what would have happened if Central banks had not done what they did in 2020 .

Also GFC debt levels were much lower then now ...now even 4% will work like 8% of 2007-08 !!!

[alokdhir]

Alokdhir ..I see 10 year govt over 4% again

Wonder if it will head back to 6% odd like it did in GFC

Many things have reached almost June low levels like Bond prices and NZD etc but not stocks and copper ...Oil surely is coming down every day but not Copper

If Copper has bottommed already at 3.13 then we all know stocks have also bottomed ....Hoop's wisdom ...I am watching Dr Copper ...its much above 3.13 levels

[bull....]

nice bounce from oversold conditions. powell speaks tomorrow

[alokdhir]

Strong rebound from S&P 500 3900 levels ....lets c how long it lasts in Bull's lala land ...lol

3900 is key for the time being ....break of 3900 should open the path to retest of June lows ...so I hope it holds

Oil surely done its dash for this time ...Oil is also leading indicator of slower economies ahead leading to lower inflation

Its easy to see market sentiment yo-yoing between hope and doom ...while reality is somewhere in between ...so yields will yield lower ...rates have also done their dash ...

Most likely what our Gov Orr said in Bloomberg interview will happen ..." Two more hikes ie to 4% then wait and watch for few months " ..ie till March 2023 ...then bias will become dovish with RBNZ expected to be first to lower rates by 25 bps before May 20223 ....its a long term forecast ...lot can change but at present its very feasible option

[bull....]

Strong rebound from S&P 500 3900 levels ....lets c how long it lasts in Bull's lala land ...lol

3900 is key for the time being ....break of 3900 should open the path to retest of June lows ...so I hope it holds

Oil surely done its dash for this time ...Oil is also leading indicator of slower economies ahead leading to lower inflation

Its easy to see market sentiment yo-yoing between hope and doom ...while reality is somewhere in between ...so yields will yield lower ...rates have also done their dash ...

Most likely what our Gov Orr said in Bloomberg interview will happen ..." Two more hikes ie to 4% then wait and watch for few months " ..ie till March 2023 ...then bias will become dovish with RBNZ expected to be first to lower rates by 25 bps before May 20223 ....its a long term forecast ...lot can change but at present its very feasible option

agree around 3900 is a line in the sand for now but im in the camp it will fold and lows will be in play again at some stage. takes time for rate hikes to feed thru to earnings contraction

[alokdhir]

agree around 3900 is a line in the sand for now but im in the camp it will fold and lows will be in play again at some stage. takes time for rate hikes to feed thru to earnings contraction

Here u are underestimating the market's forward looking abilities ...they fully understand what u saying and have taken into account . As it will feed thru earnings when recessions will be full on at that time markets will be pricing in better times ahead ....markets have seen many such cycles

Only problem will be it doesn't play as per past playbook ...10% chance of that ....as its a medium term scene .

Oil's SP is showing its playing as per past ...Oil peaked as its a leading indicator of inflation now its very bearish as its still leading indicator of recessions ahead or at least very anaemic growths ....Only biggest difference this time is record employment rates ...that makes me think rates can stay higher for little longer then usual but will not go higher then normal . But that can change when rates take effect as its too high too fast ...give them 6 months u will see unemployment creeping up and giving govts and central banks nightmares

[winner69]

This blew somebody’s mind and put hair on his back

Last week, institutional traders bought $8.1 billion worth of put options. They bought less than $1 billion in calls. This is 3x more extreme than 2008.

Suppose he interpreted it as indicator the‘experts’ think the US market is going to head down.

[winner69]

Alokdhir …. What’ll happen to NZ if the the situation in Europe is much worse than we think - like they could be on the brink of another banking crisis, a collapse of our industrial base and households,…. and thus on the brink of the collapse of their economies.

We won’t be able to avoid the carnage will we

[alokdhir]

This blew somebody’s mind and put hair on his back

Last week, institutional traders bought $8.1 billion worth of put options. They bought less than $1 billion in calls. This is 3x more extreme than 2008.

Suppose he interpreted it as indicator the‘experts’ think the US market is going to head down.

So much put buying has made the market resilient ...thats why I think it will not tank

Also institutional buy puts as insurance of their long positions ...those are not naked puts or naked shorts

Normally after a huge rally and in worst period historically ...institutions spent money to buy insurance as puts ...they didnt sell their stocks

I interpret it as prudent and market supporting data not negative

[alokdhir]

Alokdhir …. What’ll happen to NZ if the the situation in Europe is much worse than we think - like they could be on the brink of another banking crisis, a collapse of our industrial base and households,…. and thus on the brink of the collapse of their economies.

We won’t be able to avoid the carnage will we

Situation is Europe is bad ...but mother of all markets is USA not Europe ...Did Greek crisis or Italian or Spanish cause any collapse ...Germany is too strong to be in trouble as they are super productive economy unlike I named

I wont be too much worried about European troubles causing worldwide financial crisis ....USA is a different story ...Europe can cause minor trouble to USA thus to world