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Thread: Black Monday

  1. #12631
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    must also remember when fed pivot historically markets keep going down for a while too before true bottom

    Have u put Elections next year in the mix mate ? I am sure it will also have some influence on the final outcome

  2. #12632
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by alokdhir View Post
    Have u put Elections next year in the mix mate ? I am sure it will also have some influence on the final outcome
    yea maybe santa not come this yr
    one step ahead of the herd

  3. #12633
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    What can Labour do to make people happy about economy by late 2023 ? Surely not gifting them further Cost of living payments as that will only prolong our agony .

    Maybe encourage RBNZ to go 100 bps Nov and Feb then by next 6 months we can be looking at Santa rally 2023 . Hopefully our FM reads our posts

  4. #12634
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    A world view -

    Central banks have fooled themselves into thinking they have power over inflation

    Over forty years ago, the Cambridge economist Bob Rowthorn argued that high inflation occurred whenever there was a lack of consensus about the distribution of income, especially between profits and wages. A wage-price-spiral would rapidly develop which could only be broken by a sharp rise in unemployment.

    Rowthorn’s idea, in the current context, is worrying and suggests inflation will stick around for some time to come.





    https://paulormerod.com/central-bank...ver-inflation/
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by alokdhir View Post
    What can Labour do to make people happy about economy by late 2023 ? Surely not gifting them further Cost of living payments as that will only prolong our agony .

    Maybe encourage RBNZ to go 100 bps Nov and Feb then by next 6 months we can be looking at Santa rally 2023 . Hopefully our FM reads our posts
    Doubt whether Adhern will be too worried ….she would have moved on by then …maybe even in next month or two
    Last edited by winner69; 19-10-2022 at 02:54 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #12636
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Doubt whether Adhern will be too worried ….she would have moved on
    I think they will surely try their best as its still even fight but if we are in deep recession economically then her rout is almost certain and will be convincingly also

    This factor is not getting enough attention here at the moment while in USA it matters a lot as people are very sensitive to their own plight and they hold ruling party responsible fully
    Last edited by alokdhir; 19-10-2022 at 02:54 PM.

  7. #12637
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    Also last two days of trading has showed clearly that our market is not controlled by local data or local rates ....Disastrous CPI data came and we still keep going up ...Rates are up ...NZ10Y yield is up but NZX50 also up both days

    When bad news stop moving markets down then its told bottom done ...Is it ??

  8. #12638
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    nz 10yr at 4.65 now only matter of time before bear bounce ends

    another nail in the coffin of some stocks

    anz raises 1 yr term deposit to 4.3%

    ANZ is the first to react to the much higher wholesale swap rates that have flowed from the surprise CPI data. They have raised fixed home loan rates by about +45 bps and term deposit rates by about +30 bps
    https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-...d-surprise-cpi

    if orr doesnt get cracking 10% mtge rates next yr possible and depression in nz

    actually 10yr at 4.68 now

    Last edited by bull....; 19-10-2022 at 04:52 PM.
    one step ahead of the herd

  9. #12639
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    big jump in bond rates offshore
    be interesting if it flows thru in nz today after yesterday rises in nz
    one step ahead of the herd

  10. #12640
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    there we go folks nz10yr opened in the 4.70s this morning
    nz terminal rate since cpi release is inching closer towards 6

    guess orr gave his thinking away by not declaring there terminal rate last meeting and eluding to the 75pt hike maybe 100? is actually on the table now? considering the big gap to feb
    one step ahead of the herd

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