Golly gosh - bloody hell - just came across this -
@husssmanjp
Easy to forget that the 1973-74, 1981-82, 2000-02, and 2007-09 bear markets all unfolded AFTER the initial Fed pivot. The '73-74 pivot was short lived amid high inflation. Unless market internals are favorable (read my stuff), pivots amid recession risk say "something just broke"
Not sure everyone can already smell it ... but if I look at some of my European stocks - many managed to push over the last days through the MA50, and some even through the MA100. Portfolio starting to shine in more friendly colours.
Some of my NZ stocks look like a double bottom might be in the cards ... and hey, just look at banking stocks - ANZ even managed to smash the MA200!
Still early days and I am sure another frost can destroy lots of promising buds, but hey - winter might be over ;
Obviously - maybe it is just the nice weather outside? Who knows ... but I am starting to become a bit more optimistic ...
Last edited by BlackPeter; 22-10-2022 at 01:46 PM.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
Not sure everyone can already smell it ... but if I look at some of my European stocks - many managed to push over the last days through the MA50, and some even through the MA100. Portfolio starting to shine in more friendly colours.
Some of my NZ stocks look like a double bottom might be in the cards ... and hey, just look at banking stocks - ANZ even managed to smash the MA200!
Still early days and I am sure another frost can destroy lots of promising buds, but hey - winter might be over ;
Obviously - maybe it is just the nice weather outside? Who knows ... but I am starting to become a bit more optimistic ...
Unless you're on your last legs optimism means that you are hoping things become much much cheaper.
Unless you're on your last legs optimism means that you are hoping things become much much cheaper.
Actually if I look at European stocks, some of them are already ridiculously cheap.
Here are some examples:
Bayer (huge and long established chemical and pharmaceutical company with amazing earnings) is on a forward PE of 9.2 and an earnings CAGR of 15;
Daimler Trucks is on a forward PE of below 8;
Mercedes Benz (the cars) is on a forward PE of 5 and a backwards PE of 7;
Fresenius (dialysis equipment and running hospitals) is on a forward as well as backward PE of around 7
Heidelberg Cement (maybe like our FBU just global and much much bigger) is on a forward PE of below 6;
... and there are plenty more.
Clearly - these prices are already severely depressed by the fear of Putins war. Historically we are ways in overblown territory ... but sure, they always can get still cheaper.
Personally I don't mind too much. I have enough cash to navigate the storm ... and still some powder left to buy more when a trend change is confirmed.
However - I don't enjoy times of economical distress - they push politics to its extremist poles and flush inept idiots and populists into the political leadership: Putin, Xi, Trump, Bolsonaro, Johnson, Truss, Johnson (again?) ... and so many others. People are suffering for their folly all over the world.
Optimism means that this craziness stops, that the idiots and extremists crawl back under their respective rocks and people learn again to peacefully coexist and flourish. This will only happen when economy and markets stabilize ... and this is what I am hoping for.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
Actually if I look at European stocks, some of them are already ridiculously cheap.
Here are some examples:
Bayer (huge and long established chemical and pharmaceutical company with amazing earnings) is on a forward PE of 9.2 and an earnings CAGR of 15;
Daimler Trucks is on a forward PE of below 8;
Mercedes Benz (the cars) is on a forward PE of 5 and a backwards PE of 7;
Fresenius (dialysis equipment and running hospitals) is on a forward as well as backward PE of around 7
Heidelberg Cement (maybe like our FBU just global and much much bigger) is on a forward PE of below 6;
... and there are plenty more.
Clearly - these prices are already severely depressed by the fear of Putins war. Historically we are ways in overblown territory ... but sure, they always can get still cheaper.
Personally I don't mind too much. I have enough cash to navigate the storm ... and still some powder left to buy more when a trend change is confirmed.
However - I don't enjoy times of economical distress - they push politics to its extremist poles and flush inept idiots and populists into the political leadership: Putin, Xi, Trump, Bolsonaro, Johnson, Truss, Johnson (again?) ... and so many others. People are suffering for their folly all over the world.
Optimism means that this craziness stops, that the idiots and extremists crawl back under their respective rocks and people learn again to peacefully coexist and flourish. This will only happen when economy and markets stabilize ... and this is what I am hoping for.
Agree.
BASF another one, BMW... there are many. Plus you're buying a depressed currency (using a depressed currency)!
Not to mention the financials.
Lots of opportunities in the UK too.
But to my point, being able to poke back in a few dividends at these levels will lead to massive future returns.
be interesting how nzx goes today , good day on the asx yesterday my lithium stocks went berserk and us markets up so good day ahead ? everything everywhere pretty quiet focus on fed and mid terms now probably
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Originally Posted by BlackPeter
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