Black Monday

[cyclist]

Looking briefly at the treasury website the rates being quoted are all well less than 7% ...

FYI Aaron, I think Bull's 7% reference was to a % change. e.g. 4.00% increasing to 4.28% (as a made up example).

[Aaron]

FYI Aaron, I think Bull's 7% reference was to a % change. e.g. 4.00% increasing to 4.28% (as a made up example).

Now I understand, thanks. I was concerned I was missing out on a 7% govt bond and if govt bonds were 7% corporate bonds would be even better but looking at the nzx debt market my fomo is misplaced.

https://www.nzx.com/markets/NZDX

Also worked out I can buy these debt securities easily through ASB Securities. Not sure where you look to be informed of new debt issues but I am probably not a big enough investor to worry.

Also nice to know that Bull is not full of sh*t.

[bull....]

Now I understand, thanks. I was concerned I was missing out on a 7% govt bond and if govt bonds were 7% corporate bonds would be even better but looking at the nzx debt market my fomo is misplaced.

https://www.nzx.com/markets/NZDX

Also worked out I can buy these debt securities easily through ASB Securities. Not sure where you look to be informed of new debt issues but I am probably not a big enough investor to worry.

Also nice to know that Bull is not full of sh*t.

if you want a free site to access a more up to date nz 10yr bond have a look on tradingview - you dont have to sign up i just had a look and it shows 4.6% as of now .. on there site

others a like paid for sites like bloomberg platform and other trading platforms

[Bobdn]

Massive rally overnight. Most non ESG kiwi saver funds would have exposure to oil, coal, copper and silver through the allocation to the ASX, which is usually pretty meaty. The ASX is around 10 per cent of my kiwisaver. Home bias includes, fortunately, both NZ and Australia because of the beneficial tax arrangements.

Oh what a night! Copper up 8 per cent. Oil up a respectable 5 per cent. I didn't want to go to bed, it was glorious watching the action.

Rio and BHP up 10 per cent. These are not small companies. Who knows what will happen next week - could just as easily drop by the same amount. The main thing for me is that super high dividends are continuing to be paid and reinvested which keeps me happy.

Isn't it great seeing low profit/no profit tech companies sinking? Couldn't take my eyes off Twilio.

The Revenge of the Old Economy, as the Goldman guy refers to it.

Without the energy and materials sector, there are no yoga retreats in Bali or iphones.

[bull....]

Massive rally overnight. Most non ESG kiwi saver funds would have exposure to oil, coal, copper and silver through the allocation to the ASX, which is usually pretty meaty. The ASX is around 10 per cent of my kiwisaver. Home bias includes, fortunately, both NZ and Australia because of the beneficial tax arrangements.

Oh what a night! Copper up 8 per cent. Oil up a respectable 5 per cent. I didn't want to go to bed, it was glorious watching the action.

Rio and BHP up 10 per cent. These are not small companies. Who knows what will happen next week - could just as easily drop by the same amount. The main thing for me is that super high dividends are continuing to be paid and reinvested which keeps me happy.

Isn't it great seeing low profit/no profit tech companies sinking? Couldn't take my eyes off Twilio.

The Revenge of the Old Economy, as the Goldman guy refers to it.

Without the energy and materials sector, there are no yoga retreats in Bali or iphones.

big commodities rally for sure. dont know how long it last as it was based mainly on chinese rumours around re-opening which have been squashed by authorities over the weekend
Big week wall st this week mid - terms and cpi data should make for a volatile week again

[causecelebre]

big commodities rally for sure. dont know how long it last as it was based mainly on chinese rumours around re-opening which have been squashed by authorities over the weekend
Big week wall st this week mid - terms and cpi data should make for a volatile week again

Mid-terms start tomorrow in the US. History has shown the market rallies following mid-terms (6 months post), not because of the result per se but because the certainty it brings. Be interesting to see if this plays out this year

[Bobdn]

Yes so much going on. It's a lot of fun watching all this stuff. Thank god for the internet.

[winner69]

RBNZ keep a close eye on the.2 year number …but Orr doesn’t have much incentive to do much about it for a few years now.

survey of expectations they do -

Inflation expectations

One year ahead: 5.08% (Prev: 4.86%)

Two years ahead: 3.62% (Prev: 3.07%)

Five years ahead: 2.44% (Prev: 2.33%)

Ten years ahead: 2.18% (Prev: 2.13%)

A good Governer would becworried ….OCR heading over 5% …maybe to 6%

[Rawz]

RBNZ keep a close eye on the.2 year number …but Orr doesn’t have much incentive to do much about it for a few years now.

survey of expectations they do -

Inflation expectations

One year ahead: 5.08% (Prev: 4.86%)

Two years ahead: 3.62% (Prev: 3.07%)

Five years ahead: 2.44% (Prev: 2.33%)

Ten years ahead: 2.18% (Prev: 2.13%)

A good Governer would becworried ….OCR heading over 5% …maybe to 6%

Who cares about the OCR when the swaps front run it so much?

[Muse]

Who cares about the OCR when the swaps front run it so much?

Swap rates (or indeed any other bond type instrument) are all anchored to expectations of where the OCR might go. Plus or minus, in the short and slightly medium term, gyrations in the price of offshore funding