Black Monday

[Bobdn]

Yes that's true, the govt is super poll driven and polling every week.

I'm 13 per cent now in NZ shares and that feels too much. Down from 16 per cent so I'm doing my best. Got a house in NZ, that's more than enough risk..

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...JEF5EM43EABXI/

The other side's story why OCR wont go to 5+% !!

[Aaron]

this story has the potential to drive nz50 lower over time if public out rage occurs during the cost of living crisis. power companies may need a risk premium to there stock prices now ? lower div coming or stalled div's ?

Unions are piling pressure on the Government to reform the electricity industry, saying big power firms have starved the electricity network of investment while hiking prices and paying out $3.7 billion in “excess dividends” to shareholders

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130...nd-the-economy

I doubt it will make much difference in a couple of weeks from now. Merdian got caught spilling water back in Dec 2019 to keep wholesale prices high. Someone should have been jailed for that sort of carry on but nothing happened. The media will be rushing to the next mole hill to make a mountain out of rather than following up on the stories that matter.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300...icity%20prices.

In your article I see this quote from Meridian.

Meridian said it disagreed with the union-backed report.
“We are a company of people who care for New Zealanders and we're working hard to deliver a clean energy future that is good for everyone,” it said in a statement.

Working hard to deliver clean energy??? I obviously do not understand how the power market works but I would have thought spilling water to get the higher rates from other non-renewable energy sources does not sound honest or clean.

Is 3 years enough to turn around a corrupt organisation or are the spin doctors boldly lying as they know lying is so prevalent in today's society no one even cares anymore.

Mind you the report is from a "green union" group so no doubt distorted beyond belief with lazy media not checking the figures before posting.

We need Snoopy to get in here and tell us if the report has any credibility, I think there was mention of capital from thin air as the companies paid out more in dividends than profits.

[BlackPeter]

Yes that's true, the govt is super poll driven and polling every week.

I'm 13 per cent now in NZ shares and that feels too much. Down from 16 per cent so I'm doing my best. Got a house in NZ, that's more than enough risk..

Impossible to predict the future.

Hey - we could have next year a wise and forward looking government turning NZ in these uncertain times into the Switzerland of the South Pacific, couldn't we?

If this happens you probably would wish to be with more than just 13% invested in NZ ;

But sure - I might just be dreaming. More likely we end up again with with what we have now (no matter whether National or Labour led): A government with good intentions but little ability to execute and somehow meddling through. Still, if we do that better than some others (which might not be hard), we still might end up being one of the luckier countries.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Yes that's true, the govt is super poll driven and polling every week.

I'm 13 per cent now in NZ shares and that feels too much. Down from 16 per cent so I'm doing my best. Got a house in NZ, that's more than enough risk..

I agree with the posts Govt unlikely to do anything re power prices. I read the Meridian report. Revealing with coal and oil generation on the outer and wind and solar in the cost per unit of power has halved. Does this show up in reduced prices for the consumer.

Guess the right answer Y or N

[Bjauck]

Yes that's true, the govt is super poll driven and polling every week.

I'm 13 per cent now in NZ shares and that feels too much. Down from 16 per cent so I'm doing my best. Got a house in NZ, that's more than enough risk..

The NZ investment benchmark I use - Smartshares NZ Top 50 ETF has returned 11% pa for the past 10 years, under a mostly low interest rate environment. I am not sure how likely it is to return as much for the next 10 years under a higher interest rate regime, if that continues. Unless as BP suggests NZ becomes a Switzerland, which would require much demolition of vested interests and political pain for the parties that implement the changes.

NZ cannot become an Ireland as I think Ireland's success is predicated on its being an EU member yet with a lower tax environment. Switzerland is also in a sweet spot in the middle of rich Western Europe too.

[bull....]

guess your all right govt probably do nothing ..... nothing petrol , nothing supermarkets , nothing nothing nothing on almost everything lol so the smart money would be on nothing

anyway see the fed speakers are jaw boning this morning that the market got ahead of itself .... so a consolidation this week ?

[Hoop]

Finally we saw something concrete in data which matters ...just a beginning of better times or just one off ...only time will tell but like heard many times on CNBC today that investors need stay in the market rather then trying to time the market

Dr Copper is showing early signs of positivity ahead ....but again before I upset permabears that nothing is confirmed till we get another few more data points showing inflation will continue to cool ...but today's data is surely very positive and its REAL

alokdhir posted this on 11th Nov..
The medium term chart below shows up to and including the 11th Nov.
The breakout is one data point, the indicators are very encouraging but caution is still needed..We need the breakout to be sustainable to be be convincing. Looking at the copper chart previous price attempts to break through the resistance zone were with lower volumes so the buyer strength wasn't powerful enough to break through even though the indicators were encouraging..This time the buyer strength is more powerful (higher volume)...but is it powerful enough?
Today (14th Nov US time) we see the price fall back into the soup (resistance zone). It fell as low as $3.73 then stopped..This fall is expected and still encouraging as it is retesting the breakout zone. This retest is a common action after a breakout.
If the breakout is genuine (a continuation upwards) then according to market physics the resistance zone becomes a support zone which then requires a powerful seller strength to break back below $3.70.
Note that the breakout has to go above the ~$4.00 area for Copper to reverse from a Bear market back to Bull Market. This I think is what is required (a definite end to the downtrend) to meet the criteria of Copper being a leading indicator in the Equity Bear endgame.

So far so good..alokdhir...Lets hope the rising volume is due to factories buying up raw materials for near future increase in production demand. Warehouse stock storage is low but don't read to much into that re pricing...

At time of posting this Copper has risen off the $3.73 low point (another data point) to $3.79..encouraging. The above link also shows current prices on the 24 hour chart..

EDIT:- ERROR My chart below showing $3.76 was not todays closing price....

Copper 11112022.jpg

[alokdhir]

guess your all right govt probably do nothing ..... nothing petrol , nothing supermarkets , nothing nothing nothing on almost everything lol so the smart money would be on nothing

anyway see the fed speakers are jaw boning this morning that the market got ahead of itself .... so a consolidation this week ?

" Govt has no business to be in any business " Famous quote from capitalist economy

We all admire capitalism as we all are stock holders ...so why we want Govt to intervene in anything ...let market forces decide how companies need behave

Shareholders interest only shud matter to Boards nothing else as long as they are following Rules made by Govts of the land

Govt shud be only in the business of making rules for its people not directly involved or micromanaging any business ....this has proved to be best policy always

Govt or legislature makes rules and enforce them in the right spirit ...Companies can do anything to maximise shareholders wealth within those rules

So doing nothing to circumvent market forces is the right thing to do in the long run ....UK's mess caused by trying to help people but actually they have managed to hurt them ...less Govts do better it is ....

[winner69]

Suppose the RBNZ will hike the OCR 75bp next week ....... lots of inflationary surprises in recent data

'terminal' rate over 5% then