Black Monday

[alokdhir]

Litmus test of Hoop's Dr Copper breakout ahead ...fingers crossed that we make new recent high by crossing 11852 or 4800 on NZ50C index ...that shud set the cat among the pigeons surely .... Need keep mind open ...so waiting patiently to see what future has in store for us

Bull will have some expert opinions for us soon ....

[Bobdn]

I don't think of copper when I think of the nzx.

[alokdhir]

I don't think of copper when I think of the nzx.

U need to read and understand Hoops historical posts ...its a leading indicator of market bottoms as per him and he had suggested if it crosses $ 4 then it wud be safe to assume that it has bottomed which implied as per his theory that stocks wud have also done so or about to do ....

[bull....]

Litmus test of Hoop's Dr Copper breakout ahead ...fingers crossed that we make new recent high by crossing 11852 or 4800 on NZ50C index ...that shud set the cat among the pigeons surely .... Need keep mind open ...so waiting patiently to see what future has in store for us

Bull will have some expert opinions for us soon ....

i have already said im neutral at moment as most US indices are in a trading range , just like nzx

[Bobdn]

@Alokdhir I have no cash on the sidelines so I hope Dr Copper is giving the all clear.

[alokdhir]

i have already said im neutral at moment as most US indices are in a trading range , just like nzx

Thats what I mentioned ....Litmus test of your neutrality mate ...soon U will need to pick a side ...Bear or Bull ...hopefully for Bob and me its Bull ...

[Bobdn]

It's just easier always being long in the market. I might take a bath this year but over the longer term, I'll be fine. Infact it's nearly impossible to lose money over a 17 year period. In the market that is, not ones favourite 10 to 15 stocks. Still, it's good to have a little bit on the other side just to help out when things get rough - some cash or bonds (useless over the last year sadly).

I'm up to chapter 27 in Stocks for the Long Run. It continues to impress.

I think many will know this: Phillip Morris has had the best returns for any stock from 1926 to 2021. Stock picking is hard.

Even from 1968 - with the litigation, the decline in cigerette consumption, tobacco still smoked the comptetion.

https://money.cnn.com/2015/02/19/inv...st-stock-ever/

Will it continue to be a good investment - who knows. I own everything so I don't care.

[bull....]

inflation outlook

food crisis in nz this yr ? drive food inflation big time this yr in NZ

weather related shortages
co2 issues
egg shortage leading to many price rises across the board
shortages caused by trucks being unable to travel some roads because of pothole's
growers growing less due to not using fertilizer
lack of labour to pick

[alokdhir]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...est-rates-drop

BNZ research thinks RBNZ will be surprised on downside print of upcoming inflation on 25th Jan and also suggests RBNZ will acknowledge that in Feb meeting by going 50bips and not 75 as anticipated ....they are of the view labour market is about to turn ...if all goes as per their research or outlook then we are in for good times on NZX in this year ahead

[bull....]

Latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion recorded that a net 73% of businesses expect deteriorating conditions in coming months - the weakest reading in the survey's history dating back to 1961

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/...inesses-expect