Black Monday

[bull....]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...est-rates-drop

BNZ research thinks RBNZ will be surprised on downside print of upcoming inflation on 25th Jan and also suggests RBNZ will acknowledge that in Feb meeting by going 50bips and not 75 as anticipated ....they are of the view labour market is about to turn ...if all goes as per their research or outlook then we are in for good times on NZX in this year ahead

ardern said she is going to focus on the economy this year.
So i guess that means the rate of decline of the economy will be faster hence inflation might well drop quicker

[alokdhir]

ardern said she is going to focus on the economy this year.
So i guess that means the rate of decline of the economy will be faster hence inflation might well drop quicker

Thats a worry if u put it that way ...lol

But we know economy downturn is easily managed with lowering rates which stocks love ...last example covid lows then V shaped recovery as RBNZ went ballistic on downside ...FED also says the same .. " We happy to overkill the inflation as we can always revive the economy easily latter "

[winner69]

OMG the sky is falling

NZIER Business Confidence - Westpac comment:

Looking first at activity, business confidence has plummeted, dropping to its lowest level since 2005. Notably, the past three months saw a sharp fall in trading activity, with a net 13% of businesses reporting weaker trading activity in the December quarter. There was particular weakness in the retail and services sectors.



The majority of businesses expect activity will continue to weaken over the early part of 2023. In particular, builders and retailers are reporting sharp falls in forward orders. Consistent with that, we’ve seen businesses scaling back their plans for hiring and capital expenditure.

[alokdhir]

OMG the sky is falling

NZIER Business Confidence - Westpac comment:

Looking first at activity, business confidence has plummeted, dropping to its lowest level since 2005. Notably, the past three months saw a sharp fall in trading activity, with a net 13% of businesses reporting weaker trading activity in the December quarter. There was particular weakness in the retail and services sectors.



The majority of businesses expect activity will continue to weaken over the early part of 2023. In particular, builders and retailers are reporting sharp falls in forward orders. Consistent with that, we’ve seen businesses scaling back their plans for hiring and capital expenditure.

So in your opinion now OCR will peak where ? 5.5% or lesser and stay there for how long ? 6 months or more ??

[nztx]

ardern said she is going to focus on the economy this year.
So i guess that means the rate of decline of the economy will be faster hence inflation might well drop quicker

more free gifts to the usual quotient ? It is deflection or deflation year after all ..

the problem might be getting the rest to swallow all the shallow BS being spun on what they wind up wearing

[winner69]

So in your opinion now OCR will peak where ? 5.5% or lesser and stay there for how long ? 6 months or more ??

Might even go as high as 6% ..... we won't have politics meddling in things in 2023 will we?

[alokdhir]

Might even go as high as 6% ..... we won't have politics meddling in things in 2023 will we?

Ok lets see ...If NZIER report right and BNZ research has any credibility then it cant even go to 5.5% and wont even stay there 6 months as economy will collapse like house of cards ...but both maybe not happen as reality maybe more sanguine then these sensational reports

[alokdhir]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money...-freefall.html

Maybe this is whats markets celebrating today with big up push ...as markets know what happens next ...

[Aaron]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money...-freefall.html

Maybe this is whats markets celebrating today with big up push ...as markets know what happens next ...

The old bad news is good for financial markets, I am guessing.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130...-faster-deeper

It suggested profits were “collapsing” and hiring intentions were down, but that costs pressures for businesses remained extremely elevated, the difficulty in finding labour is extreme and their expectations of price rises are as high as ever, the bank said in a research note.

“It’s all starting to look like stagflation on steroids.

“There is no sign inflation is abating in any meaningful way, yet the survey adds more weight to our long-held argument that the economy is headed for recession. Moreover, that recession could come faster, and be much deeper, than many care to believe.”

If prices are still rising in a stagflationary environment will central banks worry about asset prices or price stability overall?

Maybe we should wait until the 25 Jan CPI report. alokdhir knows how financial markets work. Low interest rates and easy money.

If CPI is still high in the next CPI report and the stock market is falling due to reduced earnings and pressure to provide a return on investment in a world with moderate interest rates Adrian will be torn between his personal mandate of elevating asset prices and his official mandate of providing price stability.

[alokdhir]

The old bad news is good for financial markets, I am guessing.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130...-faster-deeper

It suggested profits were “collapsing” and hiring intentions were down, but that costs pressures for businesses remained extremely elevated, the difficulty in finding labour is extreme and their expectations of price rises are as high as ever, the bank said in a research note.

“It’s all starting to look like stagflation on steroids.

“There is no sign inflation is abating in any meaningful way, yet the survey adds more weight to our long-held argument that the economy is headed for recession. Moreover, that recession could come faster, and be much deeper, than many care to believe.”

If prices are still rising in a stagflationary environment will central banks worry about asset prices or price stability overall?

Maybe we should wait until the 25 Jan CPI report. alokdhir knows how financial markets work. Low interest rates and easy money.

If CPI is still high in the next CPI report and the stock market is falling due to reduced earnings and pressure to provide a return on investment in a world with moderate interest rates Adrian will be torn between his personal mandate of elevating asset prices and his official mandate of providing price stability.

Nothing is easy in this complicated world ...but if we see the bigger picture then eventually we shud end up with a deep recession thus labour market collapse leading to inflation pressures yielding as u cant chase prices if u dont have jobs or money in the pocket ....people just do forced austerity ....

All roads will lead to lower rates one way or the other eventually ...may become little ugly in the short term but imo now market participants are too smart and they easily look thru near term pain

In recent survey about average mortgage rates for Nov 2022 ....came same as Nov 2019 ...so actual pain of rates is still further ahead making people serious about spending curbs showing in retail spending patterns and profit downgrades from retail oriented companies like WHS