Black Monday

[bull....]

IMO the terminal rate is the easier part of the puzzle and at this point I don't think its overly important where it stops +/- 50bps... the harder part is how long will rates persist, will it be a plateau or will it be undulating after the peak. The labour market is still incredibly tight so that'll be the bellwether for me. Recent generations of the population, lawmakers, investors and even some of the RBNZ staff don't have a whole lot of experience with battling inflation. The whole expectation has been until lately that a couple rate hikes would fix the job and it'd come right down which has proven incredibly naïve and inconsistent with history. there are many decision makers responsible for fiscal / monetary policy that will declare mission accomplished when CPI hits (say) 5-6% and start bringing out the fiscal stimulus and dropping interest rates which if the labour market is still tight could just see inflation rebound and we have a years upon years of high rates. a whole lot of unknowns. Fed staff are people who are as imperfect as the rest of us and what ought to happen rarely nicely fits with what ought to happen with the benefit of hindsight

the how long inflation will persist is the part the equity market is betting on it is defeated.
gold market the way it is going higher now is probably due to weakening dollar and central bank demand but if it stays high for extended time is that because it believes inflation is staying higher for longer ?

[alokdhir]

Today got message from ASB Securities that margin lending rates going up from today ...wow ...its gone from 3.95% to 8.6% already and still some upside left ...floating rate may top 10% soon !!!!! Thats some change so fast ...imagine same happening to home mortgages ...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/brings-tears-to-my-eyes-family-consider-selling-after-2500-monthly-interest-rate-rise/LGT6FRARRZAELKHDWVHJJYDIHE/

[Rawz]

Today got message from ASB Securities that margin lending rates going up from today ...wow ...its gone from 3.95% to 8.6% already and still some upside left ...floating rate may top 10% soon !!!!! Thats some change so fast ...imagine same happening to home mortgages ...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/brings-tears-to-my-eyes-family-consider-selling-after-2500-monthly-interest-rate-rise/LGT6FRARRZAELKHDWVHJJYDIHE/

I feel sorry for this Nelson family but only a little. Seems to be blaming everyone else but himself.

I love it when people hate on the banks and complain that they make too much money. I’m like if you think they are creaming it get on the gravy train and become an owner- buy their shares.. normally they look back at ya with a confused look on their face

[causecelebre]

I feel sorry for this Nelson family but only a little. Seems to be blaming everyone else but himself.

I love it when people hate on the banks and complain that they make too much money. I’m like if you think they are creaming it get on the gravy train and become an owner- buy their shares.. normally they look back at ya with a confused look on their face

I read that article as well. It occurred to me they leveraged themselves to the eye ball without self stress testing their ability to pay. If you thought interest rates were going to stay sub 3% forever then you are idiot. They only have themselves to blame.

[Dlownz]

I read that article as well. It occurred to me they leveraged themselves to the eye ball without self stress testing their ability to pay. If you thought interest rates were going to stay sub 3% forever then you are idiot. They only have themselves to blame.

Agree. While it was good times with low rates. I started at 7.8%. Followed by 1 year at 9.3%. And it then slowly came down.
At the mo I'm at 5.85% and its about whst I was use to for awhile besides those few years of extremely cheap rates.
Have to adjust and change budgets make cuts etc. I haven't cut my streaming yet or nz heard sub 😂. But everything had gone up

[alokdhir]

I feel sorry for this Nelson family but only a little. Seems to be blaming everyone else but himself.

I love it when people hate on the banks and complain that they make too much money. I’m like if you think they are creaming it get on the gravy train and become an owner- buy their shares.. normally they look back at ya with a confused look on their face

Not everyone is super smart like u mate and not everyone is born privileged or got great understanding of financial markets ...Yes its easy for us to say they shud blame themselves but in a perfect society we look after all thus it remains perfect ...otherwise all goes to S..t soon ...

Thats why I think its Govt's duty to form policies which trys to take away extremeness in housing markets and causing pain to financially innocent and naive people ...let the smart people like Rawz play share markets but not let them compete unequally in basic fields like housing ...as survival of the fittest will make sure Rawz will have it all from them in no time ...lol One great leader justified brilliance as " genetic accident " ...so advocated equality by not making some basic things competitive ...

[Entrep]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...uverify%20wall

The death throes of crypto - only manipulators, mugs and dumbos left in the crypto gutter.

An excellent indication that inflection point for financials market is not that far off.

Death throes:

123.jpg

[Rawz]

Not everyone is super smart like u mate and not everyone is born privileged or got great understanding of financial markets ...Yes its easy for us to say they shud blame themselves but in a perfect society we look after all thus it remains perfect ...otherwise all goes to S..t soon ...

Thats why I think its Govt's duty to form policies which trys to take away extremeness in housing markets and causing pain to financially innocent and naive people ...let the smart people like Rawz play share markets but not let them compete unequally in basic fields like housing ...as survival of the fittest will make sure Rawz will have it all from them in no time ...lol One great leader justified brilliance as " genetic accident " ...so advocated equality by not making some basic things competitive ...

Yeah i agree with all that. But come on take some ownership as well..

to service their $1m+ original mortgage they would have both had to be on $100k plus salaries so they are doing above avg, one would assume they understood the risks of rising rates better than the average person

i do feel for the true workers in our economy like the truck driver + officer worker mum and dad families. these need protection from themselves

[sb9]

We're on our own today, no guidance from ASX being closed for Australia Day. Probably they needed that break after that shocking hot inflation of 7.8%, which came in much higher than consensus. Proving to be interesting 2023 at least for us two neighboring countries.

[dobby41]

I read that article as well. It occurred to me they leveraged themselves to the eye ball without self stress testing their ability to pay. If you thought interest rates were going to stay sub 3% forever then you are idiot. They only have themselves to blame.

They got a $1mil mortgage in Nelson - I'm sure that wasn't necessary at the time (ie the average is below that).
Last year they fixed for another year - why not 2 or 5?
Bad decisions are no one else's fault.