Black Monday

[alokdhir]

FED rates futures dropping full 1.5% from 10 days old 5+% to 3.5% ....thats the theme which many market pundits or punters are working on ...Lehman type crisis maybe unfolding due to dominos effect of SVB ...main ingredient of financial stability is " Confidence " in the system ...that has been hurt very broadly at a very critical time when most of the banks are sitting on huge securities mark to market losses ...their liquidity requirement going up suddenly on this lack of trust will either make them book losses on some securities or go under .

FED this time will be smarter then Lehman time and will try its best to avoid contagion effect of this confidence depleting incident of SVB ...Nomura is looking for rate cut now in march meeting ....If they see financial stability issue then they may have to do that ...hopefully not !!

Tonights US CPI print will fix views more clearly ....anything hot will lead to big trouble all over as that will reduce FED's options to deal with SVB troubles

[Nor]

Not to worry, Biden says he has it under control so sleep well.

Guarantee everything and print money as required. Simple. Should help get the deficit down too.

[SailorRob]

LOL man good laugh ... wow you have been investing in the Energy sector since 2020 ..good for you

So how do you think all these successive Banking O&G Coal Giants created Capital .... If they have been like you say such bad business models then they shouldn't have High earnings to share values they should have HIGH P/E right so you think TESLA was a better business when it had a very high P/E 1000 to present 40's as TESLA has increased earnings ..

.. XOM been around in present form since 1999 and direct descend back to standard oil from 1870 ... paying many dividends all along the way growing into the giant it is today ... one of the largest revenues in the world ...but in you view a poor investment

Both Saudi Aramco and Apple have the same net Profit margin late last year report which I found interesting...

yes I should have replaced FCF with Cashflows(was very late several hours in front of a screen etc!!) as I did recall the 2011 to 2016 period investing in the micro-jnr resources sector as being very tough ..as you see I've been investing trading the sector since early 2000's

Still I'd love to know your much better sectors to be invested in going forward that have far better Cashflows and high potentials for great FCFs.. I'll take Banking / Energy / Minerals ...

I think my point was Sport, that I wasn't dumb enough to have been it in before 2020. By investing in the energy sector during 2020 I was able to put significant portions of my net worth into ARLP at $2.89 which is now paying me $2.89 in dividends per year. Most investors don't experience this in a lifetime. And into Occidental Petroleum Warrants at $3 which then more than 10 bagged in 2 years. As well as XOM around $30...

I was not highlighting 'since 2020' as having been a lengthy amount of time. I have followed the sector closely for over 20 years and worked in it for 20 years sport so this is what I was meaning.

How did they create capital, well sport you should know the answer to this. They got it from people like yourself. In spades. And then destroyed it all.

Investing trading the sector? I don't even know what investing trading is mate.

Two companies have an identical net profit margin for a moment in time, wow so interesting bro, Costco has a net margin of 2% and is a far better business than some with 60% margins, why? Margins mean nothing. It's all about what can be earned with what capital.

I agree it will be hard to find a better sector going forward than Energy, this is why I am heavily invested.

XOM has indeed been a poor investment, a VERY poor one over the last cycle as the ALL have been. The share price went nowhere Sport for 15 years... But at times, and indeed over it's entire history it has done well.

Largest Revenues in the world mean nothing. You can generate large revenues tomorrow by setting up a company that flies people Auckland to London for $100 return. It's PORFIT sport that matters and only in relation to invested capital.


If they have been like you say such bad business models then they shouldn't have High earnings to share values they should have HIGH P/E right so you think TESLA was a better business when it had a very high P/E 1000 to present 40's as TESLA has increased earnings ..

Took a while to even understand what you're saying here. Firstly yes, banking and energy are not good businesses but at times can be good investments. In fact on reflection I have no idea what you're saying. High earnings to share values means that the market is saying the earnings are not sustainable. A high PE is the opposite as well as reflecting rising earnings.

Are you Bull posting under a different name?

So tell us how you've been doing since the early 2000's what's your record like, you sound like a real pro.

[bull....]

I think my point was Sport, that I wasn't dumb enough to have been it in before 2020. By investing in the energy sector during 2020 I was able to put significant portions of my net worth into ARLP at $2.89 which is now paying me $2.89 in dividends per year. Most investors don't experience this in a lifetime. And into Occidental Petroleum Warrants at $3 which then more than 10 bagged in 2 years. As well as XOM around $30...

I was not highlighting 'since 2020' as having been a lengthy amount of time. I have followed the sector closely for over 20 years and worked in it for 20 years sport so this is what I was meaning.

How did they create capital, well sport you should know the answer to this. They got it from people like yourself. In spades. And then destroyed it all.

Investing trading the sector? I don't even know what investing trading is mate.

Two companies have an identical net profit margin for a moment in time, wow so interesting bro, Costco has a net margin of 2% and is a far better business than some with 60% margins, why? Margins mean nothing. It's all about what can be earned with what capital.

I agree it will be hard to find a better sector going forward than Energy, this is why I am heavily invested.

XOM has indeed been a poor investment, a VERY poor one over the last cycle as the ALL have been. The share price went nowhere Sport for 15 years... But at times, and indeed over it's entire history it has done well.

Largest Revenues in the world mean nothing. You can generate large revenues tomorrow by setting up a company that flies people Auckland to London for $100 return. It's PORFIT sport that matters and only in relation to invested capital.


If they have been like you say such bad business models then they shouldn't have High earnings to share values they should have HIGH P/E right so you think TESLA was a better business when it had a very high P/E 1000 to present 40's as TESLA has increased earnings ..

Took a while to even understand what you're saying here. Firstly yes, banking and energy are not good businesses but at times can be good investments. In fact on reflection I have no idea what you're saying. High earnings to share values means that the market is saying the earnings are not sustainable. A high PE is the opposite as well as reflecting rising earnings.

Are you Bull posting under a different name?

So tell us how you've been doing since the early 2000's what's your record like, you sound like a real pro.

no im not jbmurc
anyway
what's porfit ? your spelling is getting as bad as mine at times
dont know if i agree with your margins dont matter statement

[SailorRob]

no im not jbmurc
anyway
what's porfit ? your spelling is getting as bad as mine at times
dont know if i agree with your margins dont matter statement

It's getting worse but I wouldn't go as far as
being as bad as you.

A business such as a supermarket can be phenomenal with 2% margins as can a software business with 80% margins.

The 2% could be better.

It all depends...

[alokdhir]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money...y-to-rise.html

End game of rate hikes and capitulation is very close ...need get ready !!

[BlackPeter]

Not to worry, Biden says he has it under control so sleep well.

Better keep politics out of this thread. Nothing to do with Biden. Trump managed to screw the system up (and he did that by severe and incredibly dumb deregulation) ... and now its his successors fault?

[bull....]

Better keep politics out of this thread. Nothing to do with Biden. Trump managed to screw the system up (and he did that by severe and incredibly dumb deregulation) ... and now its his successors fault?

the bank failure was just bad management and poor regulatory oversight and yes possibly due to rollback of reg's

[Muse]

actually the bank failure was just bad management and poor regulatory oversight

According to the WSJ, SVB didn't have ANY hedges on its bonds at the end of last year, and didn't have a risk officer for the majority of last year (which it also failed to disclose). That coupled with it had very little sticky retail deposits, and instead transient tech based company deposits. Seems an incredible F'up.

[percy]

Ord Minnett notes two distinct differences between SVB and Australian banks:

SVB customers are concentrated towards concentrated and lumpy deposits whereas household deposits make up 40% to 50% of deposits across major Australia banks

SVB had a large percentage of their assets held in investment securities, which were out of the money, whereas Australian banks primarily invest in mortgages and corporate debt

“We do not believe the conditions that allowed a run to happen on SVB exist for Australian banks,” the report said.