Black Monday

[causecelebre]

OPEC+ announces surprise oil output cuts


https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ts-2023-04-02/

not to good for inflation reading mth's ahead if it holds.

Nek minit: Saudi will announce it will start pricing oil in Yuan

[winner69]

Hard to believe that next 12 years return on US equities is negative and that bonds outperform equities.

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status...Lj1Ccl5JFHMPjA

[BlackPeter]

OPEC+ announces surprise oil output cuts

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ts-2023-04-02/

not to good for inflation reading mth's ahead if it holds.

Maybe, maybe not. I am wondering whether the oil Russia is under circumvention of the Western embargo selling to Putin's dear friends (China, North Korea and India) is counted against the OPEC quota?

If not, than OPEC decision might be quite irrelevant for the future oil price, and even the Western world gets the Russian stuff through India.

Anybody knows?

[SailorRob]

Hard to believe that next 12 years return on US equities is negative and that bonds outperform equities.

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status...Lj1Ccl5JFHMPjA

I don't think it's hard to believe at all, unlikely perhaps but very easy to see how it could happen, after all it happened very recently.


​My base case which is grounded in math is for low single digits over the next 12.

[SailorRob]

Nek minit: Saudi will announce it will start pricing oil in Yuan

Yes they were going to do that in 1975

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/statu...822987266?s=20

[SailorRob]

Maybe, maybe not. I am wondering whether the oil Russia is under circumvention of the Western embargo selling to Putin's dear friends (China, North Korea and India) is counted against the OPEC quota?

If not, than OPEC decision might be quite irrelevant for the future oil price, and even the Western world gets the Russian stuff through India.

Anybody knows?

It's a good point but the market has spoken.

[BlackPeter]

It's a good point but the market has spoken.

Market bubbles a lot ... but, lets face it - market changes as well its view faster than any bipolar person can cycle from depression to euphoria and back. Super-rapid cycler. Just wait for the next news tomorrow or the day after. Market shoots first, checks later and has no clue either what the future brings.

Market hype does not mean anything for long term investments.

[SailorRob]

Market bubbles a lot ... but, lets face it - market changes as well its view faster than any bipolar person can cycle from depression to euphoria and back. Super-rapid cycler. Just wait for the next news tomorrow or the day after. Market shoots first, checks later and has no clue either what the future brings.

Market hype does not mean anything for long term investments.

Totally agree.

[Daytr]

For those interested in banking...

Remember my response to the above where I stated this was a dramatic misunderstanding and then I got attacked and told 'Mate I worked in international banking for 20 years in both London & Sydney in the wholesale markets. I'm not here to educate you on how banking works'. Which then led to me defending myself and so on...

Well in case I got it wrong I wrote to Michael Reddle, one of New Zealand's premiere banking experts https://www.centralbanking.com/author/michael-reddell

I asked him;

'Michael, would you say NZ banks primarily make loans by borrowing from the reserve bank and then lending it out at a margin'? (please note this is a directly taken from Daytr explanation).

His reply;

'No definitely not. Generally banks have v low levels of borrowing from the cen bank (and on the other side of the balance sheet their deposits with the cen banks pre Covid were 1-2% of total bank assets)'.

So... as I said yesterday... Datry misunderstood how banking worked and then attacked me for pointing it out. Perhaps I should not have been so rude about it but it is important if you are posting publicly that you strive for accuracy with what you state particularly if you claim to be an expert and to shut down others using your professional credentials as proof they're wrong.

No hard feelings Datry, but I am sorry I stand behind what I said. You have a dramatic misunderstanding of basic banking.

Please people, keep it REAL.

Are you still harping on? Are you also being selective as I have already posted this yesterday.
Daytr

Guru Join DateMay 2013LocationNZPosts2,620

Originally Posted by SailorRob
Look, banks do not primarily make loans by borrowing from the reserve bank and lending it out at margin.

Let's get some cash to a charity by making a bet that I'm right and you're wrong.

As with others on sharetrader you will back down at 100 miles an hour.



No fair enough it's from multiple sources, domestic deposits, international borrowing & the Reserve Bank.

So it's not just funded from deposits either.
Last edited by Daytr; Yesterday at 10:08 AM.

I think Mark Twain said it best. "When arguing with a fool, you will never convince the idiot and bystanders wont be able to tell the difference." or something along those lines.

Now where is that block button to turn off the constant ego driven drivel.

[Daytr]

Problem

When I tried to send the pm it says you are not receiving pm

Crypto crude was banned but just uses his other personalities.
it’s very frustrating when they keep appearing.
needs putting down

No problem Fish, I just worked out how to do it. Peace at last! ;-)
I forgot I turned off private messaging some years ago as I kept getting spammed.
All the best to you