Black Monday

[SailorRob]

Interesting articles and discussion.

So, sell all rental properties and buy BRK-B?

Also, those examples account for the inherit leverage in property correct? It seemed like they did from the wording.

Not really, even if you didn't use any leverage at all you'd still get awful results. Leverage will help only if the rate you're borrowing at is lower than the rate of inflation over a long period of time. *edit, or of course if you time it right buy 2016 sell 2021 etc...

If you own rental property then have a look at your price to revenue and ask what margins you are going to achieve and compare to say Google or Apple.

If as per his example you have a million dollar property returning GROSS 800/w that's a Price to Sales of 24 times.

More expensive than just about any business in the world. Now even if your margins are higher than Apple and Google you're going to have a pretty awful result.

Berkshire Price to sales is less than 3 times.

A property returning 800/w with a 50% Net margin (impossibly high) is worth $260,000 if you want a 8% return. It's that simple.

In aggregate investors cannot earn more than the 800/w less all expenses as that is all the cash generated.

[SailorRob]

I see what you mean. Berkshire is well positioned. They seem to have plenty of cash to invest at any time, purely because it just generates cash. I am not familiar with Abel I have to admit. He seems very successful in his own right and he has been part of the Berkshire ecosystem. I do get the feeling Buffett has always been stern in decision making, but never liked confrontation. So this direct approach from Abel is an interesting contrast. Knowing Buffett he would have done a thorough job sussing him out for the role.

Its interesting they are buying into Japan banks. It reminds me of the the Chandlers brothers from Hamilton. At one time they bought into a Japan Bank. They ran a very concentrated portfolio and achieved a excellent investment record. I don't think too many people in this country know about them. But they are right up with the great investors. I think 30% plus p.a over 20 years.

Berkshire is not buying into any Japanese banks.

Chandler Brothers is one of the greatest investing stories of all time, completely unknown.

Phenomenal article - https://www.institutionalinvestor.co...s-of-sovereign

The only investor I have ever heard of that is better than the Chandlers is Bull.

[winner69]

Care to comment on the massive gain NZD posted overnight?

Care to comment on the “massive” fall NZD posted overnight, against Most major currencies as well

[SailorRob]

Care to comment on the “massive” fall NZD posted overnight, against Most major currencies as well

No comment as I have no idea.

My original care to comment question was in response to someone who posted about a 'massive' move down in the NZD, which I could hardly even see, and a day or two later there was a massive gain that went without commentary.

My point being that day to day movements in the NZD USD cross are pointless pontificating about.

I have no idea how the Kiwi is above .55 US but there you go. I don't hold very much of it at all.

[Fortunecookie]

Berkshire is not buying into any Japanese banks.

Chandler Brothers is one of the greatest investing stories of all time, completely unknown.

Phenomenal article - https://www.institutionalinvestor.co...s-of-sovereign

The only investor I have ever heard of that is better than the Chandlers is Bull.

Apologies SR, thanks for the correction. Trading houses not banks. I wonder if they are the same as keiretsu.

I read the article a while back. It is a very good read from what I remember. The only other write up I could find was through twitter, but I forgot who posted it. It's hard to find information on these brothers which is unfortunate.

I am starting to hear more about Bull's awesome track record. Doesn't it make him a goat.

[bull....]

Berkshire is not buying into any Japanese banks.

Chandler Brothers is one of the greatest investing stories of all time, completely unknown.

Phenomenal article - https://www.institutionalinvestor.co...s-of-sovereign

The only investor I have ever heard of that is better than the Chandlers is Bull.

they have done very well , i couldnt see any per yr gains analysis or more in depth analysis on how they did it but my rough guess was if you started with 10m to get 5 billion you would need at least 35% - 36% per annum compounded over 20 yrs
less return needed per annum if they contributed to there fund along the way with div re-investment etc etc .
so on face value they are a way better investor than me , + i started with quite a few zero's less

[winner69]

Guy on tv says s&p500 heading to 4800

[bull....]

adding to the story about property investment being crap esp old homes

Landlord interest payments jump up by thousands due to new tax rules

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/pro...-new-tax-rules

[SailorRob]

they have done very well , i couldnt see any per yr gains analysis or more in depth analysis on how they did it but my rough guess was if you started with 10m to get 5 billion you would need at least 35% - 36% per annum compounded over 20 yrs
less return needed per annum if they contributed to there fund along the way with div re-investment etc etc .
so on face value they are a way better investor than me , + i started with quite a few zero's less

Someone who compounded at 36.44% for 20 years is 'on face value' a way better investor than bull.

Thanks for clearing that up mate, we were wondering if they were on face value any better than you.

[SailorRob]

I am starting to hear more about Bull's awesome track record. Doesn't it make him a goat.

Indeed.

He can make money off any chart, anywhere any time.

As he runs 12 Screens and has 4 charts per screen, and with some markets being open 24/7 these days...

His actual performance is only limited by one single thing.

The 60 hours a week he spends busting his gut in his ordinary job.

But even while working 60 hours a week he has still destroyed the market over the last 10 years, he's still getting his figures together but will soon let us know what they were.