sharetrader

Thread: Black Monday

  1. #14381
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,911

    Default

    Suppose many different interpretations of this chart

    @TaviCosta on Twitter says -

    As shown in the chart below, the ratio between tech stocks and the S&P 500 is now over 2 standard deviations above the historical mean.

    During other times when this indicator also reached such high levels, the tech sector significantly underperformed in the following decade.

    It's unlikely that this time will be any different.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by winner69; 07-05-2023 at 08:39 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #14382
    Member Fortunecookie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2023
    Posts
    293

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Suppose many different interpretations of this chart

    @TaviCosta on Twitter says -

    As shown in the chart below, the ratio between tech stocks and the S&P 500 is now over 2 standard deviations above the historical mean.

    During other times when this indicator also reached such high levels, the tech sector significantly underperformed in the following decade.

    It's unlikely that this time will be any different.
    Cant see the chart. But easy to see it's a lack of cheap money. When it currently doesn't make money and lack optimism, how does it get funded.

  3. #14383
    ****
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Location
    NZ
    Posts
    4,641

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Valuegrowth View Post
    Something to learn from great value investor. Sold 8 stocks and bought 2 stocks. Has sold off most of its holdings in semicondutor(TSM), cut its investment in U.S. Bancop(USB) by 91% and in Bank of New york Mellon(B) by 56%.

    https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/...ng-and-selling
    He did well to cut the banking stocks but TSM is up around 10% on average since Q4.
    I wouldn't be surprised if he's cashing up a bit to buy into various stocks at lower levels.

  4. #14384
    ****
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Location
    NZ
    Posts
    4,641

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Suppose many different interpretations of this chart

    @TaviCosta on Twitter says -

    As shown in the chart below, the ratio between tech stocks and the S&P 500 is now over 2 standard deviations above the historical mean.

    During other times when this indicator also reached such high levels, the tech sector significantly underperformed in the following decade.

    It's unlikely that this time will be any different.
    Looking back as a predictor of the future is a dangerous game in my view, particularly when it comes to the tech space. Always going to be high risk & volatile are but over time tech is going to grow to be part of all areas of the market with the development of AI, nano bots, advances in medicine etc. The list is endless. My prediction a few years ago is the NASDQ will be higher than the DOW at some point.

  5. #14385
    Member Fortunecookie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2023
    Posts
    293

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Daytr View Post
    Looking back as a predictor of the future is a dangerous game in my view, particularly when it comes to the tech space. Always going to be high risk & volatile are but over time tech is going to grow to be part of all areas of the market with the development of AI, nano bots, advances in medicine etc. The list is endless. My prediction a few years ago is the NASDQ will be higher than the DOW at some point.
    I am not saying it's all doom and gloom. But things go in cycles. Because of the higher finance rate, companies that are not generating a profit or adequate return will be punished more. Typically those are the tech stocks. Hence the volatility.

    You can see it, companies are not pursuing growth and focusing on improving margin. I am starting to see evidence of standardising of goods and services across different industries.

    No doubt innovation will continue. But at the moment companies arent prepared to support these endeavours at the same level as previously.

    At some point tech will outperform in the future. The question is when.

  6. #14386
    ... have power to make you great
    Join Date
    Aug 2020
    Location
    Far North
    Posts
    1,089

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Valuegrowth View Post
    Something to learn from great value investor. Sold 8 stocks and bought 2 stocks. Has sold off most of its holdings in semicondutor(TSM), cut its investment in U.S. Bancop(USB) by 91% and in Bank of New york Mellon(B) by 56%.

    https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/...ng-and-selling
    "Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and billionaire value investor Warren Buffett said that the conglomerate has sold the entirety of its equity position in the U.S. airline industry. The prior stake, worth north of $4 billion in December, included positions in United , American , Southwest and Delta Air Lines .2/05/2020"

    "Why did Buffett sell airline stocks?

    But last spring, the Omaha-based conglomerate sold these holdings for far less than the $7 billion to $8 billion it had paid for them, and Buffett called his decision to invest in air travel a “mistake,” arguing it could take years for airlines to fully recover from Covid-19.1/05/2021"

    Buffett said that investing in air travel was a mistake. I would also add that divesting his air travel stocks was a huge mistake at the covid pivot point. One year later airlines had tripled in value. From that you can conclude that investors and instos don't follow Warren to the letter

  7. #14387
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Posts
    1,282

    Default

    @Winner, it's funny I was just reading that TaviCosta tweet about 15 minutes ago, and then I see your reference to it here.

    Twitter is so addictive.

  8. #14388
    ****
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Location
    NZ
    Posts
    4,641

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Fortunecookie View Post
    I am not saying it's all doom and gloom. But things go in cycles. Because of the higher finance rate, companies that are not generating a profit or adequate return will be punished more. Typically those are the tech stocks. Hence the volatility.

    You can see it, companies are not pursuing growth and focusing on improving margin. I am starting to see evidence of standardising of goods and services across different industries.

    No doubt innovation will continue. But at the moment companies arent prepared to support these endeavours at the same level as previously.

    At some point tech will outperform in the future. The question is when.
    Quote Originally Posted by Habits View Post
    "Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and billionaire value investor Warren Buffett said that the conglomerate has sold the entirety of its equity position in the U.S. airline industry. The prior stake, worth north of $4 billion in December, included positions in United , American , Southwest and Delta Air Lines .2/05/2020"

    "Why did Buffett sell airline stocks?

    But last spring, the Omaha-based conglomerate sold these holdings for far less than the $7 billion to $8 billion it had paid for them, and Buffett called his decision to invest in air travel a “mistake,” arguing it could take years for airlines to fully recover from Covid-19.1/05/2021"

    Buffett said that investing in air travel was a mistake. I would also add that divesting his air travel stocks was a huge mistake at the covid pivot point. One year later airlines had tripled in value. From that you can conclude that investors and instos don't follow Warren to the letter
    Yep fair points. Tech reminds me of the mining industry, where you have the explorers & the producers.

  9. #14389
    Banned
    Join Date
    Nov 2018
    Posts
    3,166

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Habits View Post
    "Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and billionaire value investor Warren Buffett said that the conglomerate has sold the entirety of its equity position in the U.S. airline industry. The prior stake, worth north of $4 billion in December, included positions in United , American , Southwest and Delta Air Lines .2/05/2020"

    "Why did Buffett sell airline stocks?

    But last spring, the Omaha-based conglomerate sold these holdings for far less than the $7 billion to $8 billion it had paid for them, and Buffett called his decision to invest in air travel a “mistake,” arguing it could take years for airlines to fully recover from Covid-19.1/05/2021"

    Buffett said that investing in air travel was a mistake. I would also add that divesting his air travel stocks was a huge mistake at the covid pivot point. One year later airlines had tripled in value. From that you can conclude that investors and instos don't follow Warren to the letter

    Not at all.

    Process vs Outcome.

    Be extremely worth your while spending a whole day studying this move alone, read all the transcripts and the 10Q's and the K.

    Then write an essay with your findings, will improve you massively as an investor.

    With this logic it was a massive mistake not to have bought ****coin and in hindsight it was.

  10. #14390
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    11,074

    Default

    Buffett annual meeting had some good nuggets

    buffett admitting their earnings are likely to decline going forward
    selling way more stocks first quarter than buying ie building up there cash position

    which all makes sense

    here's a shortened take of a good interview by daiio on what he thinks is a head too

    Ray Dalio's Warning for The U.S. Economy and The Coming Crisis


    one step ahead of the herd

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •