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Thread: Black Monday

  1. #14471
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    BREAKING: White House says if the US defaults, the stock market is expected to decline by more than 45%.. ….from an outfit called Spectator

    Big bargains on the way …….cash ready
    Last edited by winner69; 21-05-2023 at 04:51 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    BREAKING: White House says if the US defaults, the stock market is expected to decline by more than 45%.

    Big bargains on the way …….cash ready
    Almost negligible chance of that happening ...so why prepare for such an event !!

    They need scare people to get their suitable deal ...which will happen few days before money finishes ...lol

  3. #14473
    Advanced Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    However,I don't rule out kind of panic situation. At the end patient and disciplined investor will win.
    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    BREAKING: White House says if the US defaults, the stock market is expected to decline by more than 45%.

    Big bargains on the way …….cash ready
    I don't think so. Only thing I expect is coming bear market after the longest bull market. Of course time to time there could be heavy sell-off, volatitity in all types of markets. Bull market will follow bear market. Bear market will follow bull market. This time is no different to me. Under the current situation,value investing makes sense. Rule number one: Never make lossess again.
    Last edited by Valuegrowth; 21-05-2023 at 04:59 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    BREAKING: White House says if the US defaults, the stock market is expected to decline by more than 45%.. ….from an outfit called Spectator

    Big bargains on the way …….cash ready
    Panic!!!!!!! Sell all your shares tomorrow…….. oh wait when was the last time they ever defaulted. Please remind me.

  6. #14476
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    Quote Originally Posted by Valuegrowth View Post
    However,I don't rule out kind of panic situation. At the end patient and disciplined investor will win.

    I don't think so. Only thing I expect is coming bear market after the longest bull market. Of course time to time there could be heavy sell-off, volatitity in all types of markets. Bull market will follow bear market. Bear market will follow bull market. This time is no different to me. Under the current situation,value investing makes sense. Rule number one: Never make lossess again.

    Meanwhile on a place called planet Earth in Q1 of 2023;

    As of quarter-end, if our portfolio were viewed as one see-through company, based on sell-side consensusestimates (or when unavailable our own estimates), our portfolio would be trading at a 1-year-forward P/Emultiple of 7.6x and a 3-year forward P/E multiple of 5.2x.10,11 This implies a ~21% net income CAGR andassumes no share repurchases over that period. I am optimistic about the prospects of our currentportfolio, particularly the margin of safety that I believe is embedded in our see-through multiple.

    Here I was thinking we are in a generational bear with many hundreds of quality companies that have had 10 years wiped of their share prices not to mention 50%.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Valuegrowth View Post
    Sorry. It should be "can't find any strong Tech company below a 15 P/E".

    https://www.currentmarketvaluation.c...e-earnings.php
    https://www.currentmarketvaluation.c...-indicator.php

    And run me through the math of why we should find them?

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    https://www.squirrel.co.nz/blogs/hou...cri-1131155066

    Other side of the story

    IMO ...we will have another 25-50bips increase ...but thats actually inconsequential to real rates ...markets have already done it ...But will Banks raise usable rates for masses ...fearing more business loss ...so overall theme that we are done is easier to see ...rates topped shud encourage equity investment in next few months

    RV stocks big reversal is showing early signs of that

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    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by alokdhir View Post
    https://www.squirrel.co.nz/blogs/hou...cri-1131155066

    Other side of the story

    IMO ...we will have another 25-50bips increase ...but thats actually inconsequential to real rates ...markets have already done it ...But will Banks raise usable rates for masses ...fearing more business loss ...so overall theme that we are done is easier to see ...rates topped shud encourage equity investment in next few months

    RV stocks big reversal is showing early signs of that
    Good to see you back into happy / cheery / positive mode alokdhir after appearing to be down in the dumps of late.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #14480
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Good to see you back into happy / cheery / positive mode alokdhir after appearing to be down in the dumps of late.
    Never want to be a " Sour Pusses " as referred by our dear friend on other site ....lol

    Thanks for your encouragement as ever ...U r not only very informative poster but a perfect gentlemanly one too ...

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