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21-05-2023, 04:48 PM
#14471
BREAKING: White House says if the US defaults, the stock market is expected to decline by more than 45%.. ….from an outfit called Spectator
Big bargains on the way …….cash ready
Last edited by winner69; 21-05-2023 at 04:51 PM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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21-05-2023, 04:51 PM
#14472
Originally Posted by winner69
BREAKING: White House says if the US defaults, the stock market is expected to decline by more than 45%.
Big bargains on the way …….cash ready
Almost negligible chance of that happening ...so why prepare for such an event !!
They need scare people to get their suitable deal ...which will happen few days before money finishes ...lol
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21-05-2023, 04:54 PM
#14473
However,I don't rule out kind of panic situation. At the end patient and disciplined investor will win.
Originally Posted by winner69
BREAKING: White House says if the US defaults, the stock market is expected to decline by more than 45%.
Big bargains on the way …….cash ready
I don't think so. Only thing I expect is coming bear market after the longest bull market. Of course time to time there could be heavy sell-off, volatitity in all types of markets. Bull market will follow bear market. Bear market will follow bull market. This time is no different to me. Under the current situation,value investing makes sense. Rule number one: Never make lossess again.
Last edited by Valuegrowth; 21-05-2023 at 04:59 PM.
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21-05-2023, 05:55 PM
#14474
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21-05-2023, 07:13 PM
#14475
Originally Posted by winner69
BREAKING: White House says if the US defaults, the stock market is expected to decline by more than 45%.. ….from an outfit called Spectator
Big bargains on the way …….cash ready
Panic!!!!!!! Sell all your shares tomorrow…….. oh wait when was the last time they ever defaulted. Please remind me.
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21-05-2023, 08:31 PM
#14476
Originally Posted by Valuegrowth
However,I don't rule out kind of panic situation. At the end patient and disciplined investor will win.
I don't think so. Only thing I expect is coming bear market after the longest bull market. Of course time to time there could be heavy sell-off, volatitity in all types of markets. Bull market will follow bear market. Bear market will follow bull market. This time is no different to me. Under the current situation,value investing makes sense. Rule number one: Never make lossess again.
Meanwhile on a place called planet Earth in Q1 of 2023;
As of quarter-end, if our portfolio were viewed as one see-through company, based on sell-side consensusestimates (or when unavailable our own estimates), our portfolio would be trading at a 1-year-forward P/Emultiple of 7.6x and a 3-year forward P/E multiple of 5.2x.10,11 This implies a ~21% net income CAGR andassumes no share repurchases over that period. I am optimistic about the prospects of our currentportfolio, particularly the margin of safety that I believe is embedded in our see-through multiple.
Here I was thinking we are in a generational bear with many hundreds of quality companies that have had 10 years wiped of their share prices not to mention 50%.
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21-05-2023, 08:32 PM
#14477
Originally Posted by Valuegrowth
And run me through the math of why we should find them?
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22-05-2023, 07:51 AM
#14478
https://www.squirrel.co.nz/blogs/hou...cri-1131155066
Other side of the story
IMO ...we will have another 25-50bips increase ...but thats actually inconsequential to real rates ...markets have already done it ...But will Banks raise usable rates for masses ...fearing more business loss ...so overall theme that we are done is easier to see ...rates topped shud encourage equity investment in next few months
RV stocks big reversal is showing early signs of that
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22-05-2023, 07:56 AM
#14479
Originally Posted by alokdhir
https://www.squirrel.co.nz/blogs/hou...cri-1131155066
Other side of the story
IMO ...we will have another 25-50bips increase ...but thats actually inconsequential to real rates ...markets have already done it ...But will Banks raise usable rates for masses ...fearing more business loss ...so overall theme that we are done is easier to see ...rates topped shud encourage equity investment in next few months
RV stocks big reversal is showing early signs of that
Good to see you back into happy / cheery / positive mode alokdhir after appearing to be down in the dumps of late.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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22-05-2023, 08:08 AM
#14480
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