*current* OCR track only shows 5.5% peak - that would be a relief! Although of course will be data dependent and rbnz track record of forecasting its own OCR has been poor.
First time Vote needed ...so there was no consensus ...Vote count ?? Who has read MPS ? U r most likely to....enlighten us also please
*current* OCR track only shows 5.5% peak - that would be a relief! Although of course will be data dependent and rbnz track record of forecasting its own OCR has been poor.
Relief to who? The debt holders who've had zero for 12 years? Elderly savers? Or imbeciles who borrowed 900% of net worth for a dung box that produces nothing.
Most home loan borrowers are yet to roll onto the new rates. This will continue to increase over the next 18 months.
Orr said at the last meeting that banks hadn't passed on the previous rate rise, so here's another 50bp.
That says to me he wasn't wanting to go 50bps last time but the banks forced his hand.
This time around the banks are doing the opposite and factoring in 50bps.
My guess is that Reserve Bank will either go into holding pattern to see the impact of what they have already done or go 25bps.
Pretty much as I called it.
Great news for mortgage holders particularly those who purchased in the last 2 years.
Also great news for NZ stocks & exporters who will benefit from a lower dollar.
Markets are not out of the woods yet.That doesn't mean there are no opportunities in global stock markets. Only intelligent stock pickers will manage to identify them. In my opinion, buying stocks without doing home work is a recipe for disaster in an environment like today.Only positive thing is still average unemplyment rate is lower than long term average. More and more volatitlity, sell-off could prevail in markets untill 2025 at least.
I just looked at the OCR track in the excel file - first thing I went to. Haven’t read the MPS or anything other than the summary announcement.
"The RBNZ surprised all and sundry by lifting the OCR 25bp and signalling it has most likely done enough to contain inflation. Expectations were spread over a 25bp vs. 50bp for this meeting, and for an eventual peak of 5.75% - 6% (we had expected a 50bp OCR hike today and a 5.75% OCR peak). Rather than a choice between 25bp and 50bp, the RBNZ debated between pausing and lifting the OCR .by 25bp, with the vote 5-2 in favour of an increase."
ASB commentary has answered ...5-2 ...means 2 voted for pause !! Interesting
"The RBNZ surprised all and sundry by lifting the OCR 25bp and signalling it has most likely done enough to contain inflation. Expectations were spread over a 25bp vs. 50bp for this meeting, and for an eventual peak of 5.75% - 6% (we had expected a 50bp OCR hike today and a 5.75% OCR peak). Rather than a choice between 25bp and 50bp, the RBNZ debated between pausing and lifting the OCR .by 25bp, with the vote 5-2 in favour of an increase."
ASB commentary has answered ...5-2 ...means 2 voted for pause !! Interesting
We all know higher rates take time to filter through as people roll-over off fixed. The actual surprise is the rbnz doing something right for the moment. Give them time, they are sure to mess it up.
ORR statement saying they are done has managed to give nzd a good old savaging on the downside overnight and i guess the nzd dollar could be headed further south now that it is even more at the mercy of what the fed does going forward now.
anyway doesnt a weak nzd + fuel subsidy coming off shortly + supermarkets rorting us on the upside with food prices mean a upside in inflation at some stage ..... ill stick too my sticky inflation outlook at a lower than now level but higher than there 2 - 3% and staying higher for longer than there forward outlook
anyway i see debt ceiling jitters starting to hit markets , volitilty likely to increase the closer to deadline with no out come it becomes. insurance on default is highest its been in history
ORR statement saying they are done has managed to give nzd a good old savaging on the downside overnight and i guess the nzd dollar could be headed further south now that it is even more at the mercy of what the fed does going forward now.
anyway doesnt a weak nzd + fuel subsidy coming off shortly + supermarkets rorting us on the upside with food prices mean a upside in inflation at some stage ..... ill stick too my sticky inflation outlook at a lower than now level but higher than there 2 - 3% and staying higher for longer than there forward outlook
anyway i see debt ceiling jitters starting to hit markets , volitilty likely to increase the closer to deadline with no out come it becomes. insurance on default is highest its been in history
Is all this like the OCA capital raise that you and Balance saw too?
NIVIDA massive after hours kick higher on better revenue numbers ---up USD$170Billion in minutes (NZ Gross GDP USD$250Bill.)
Ai saving the market.....
AI is booming – so is its carbon footprint
AI uses more energy than other forms of computing, and training a single model can gobble up more electricity than 100 US homes use in an entire year...
while US Energy stocks continue to be values very cheaply >>>
"With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu
Originally Posted by Fiordland Moose
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