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Thread: Black Monday

  1. #14671
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike2020 View Post
    I think you extrapolated his results out to something he never stated he did over the longer term. If you took his 400k loss plus interest and inflation into account and maybe counted use of money verses some index that he could have used at the time what result would you come up with?

    Not at all.

    His statement was very clear and simple.

    He stated a 20% CAGR for the decade ending 2016, beginning in 2006.

    Then he stated each years return from 2018 though to this year.

    So it's easy to calculate.

    The bad years are already counted for in his 20% CAGR, that's the definition of CAGR.

    And remember this is unleveraged, so actual returns far higher.

  2. #14672
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike2020 View Post
    I think you extrapolated his results out to something he never stated he did over the longer term. If you took his 400k loss plus interest and inflation into account and maybe counted use of money verses some index that he could have used at the time what result would you come up with?
    As you said, someone needs to learn to read, such as "I only took capital out".

    But apparently everyone lies on this forum, except SailorRob and he has some distorted view that everyone owes him an explanation.

    It really makes this thread quite tiresome & makes me wonder if it's really worth contributing at all.

    My preference is that we all help each other to make a buck, not snap like a rabid terrier.
    Last edited by Daytr; 05-06-2023 at 06:24 PM.

  3. #14673
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SailorRob View Post
    I have trouble believing that anyone on Sharetrader has the best record in the entire world of professional investing.

    That's all.

    I also find it hard to believe that anyone with these phenomenal returns like Bull, also needs to work a day job.
    why does musk still keep his day job
    one step ahead of the herd

  4. #14674
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    why does musk still keep his day job

    Because he doesn't work a parallel job as a truck driver alongside his money making entities.

    He is entirely focused on his businesses.

  5. #14675
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daytr View Post
    As you said, someone needs to learn to read, such as "I only took capital out".

    But apparently everyone lies on this forum, except SailorRob and he has some distorted view that everyone owes him an explanation.

    It really makes this thread quite tiresome & makes me wonder if it's really worth contributing at all.

    My preference is that we all help each other to make a buck, not snap like a rabid terrier.

    Taking capital out doesn't affect a CAGR calculation...

    Your contributions won't be missed, particularly those such as stating the commercial banks borrow money from the RBNZ and lend it at a spread. And then doubling down by saying you're a pro investor.

  6. #14676
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    https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/k-...020014906.html

    K-Pop Stocks’ $5.4 Billion Rally Emboldens Bulls


    Last edited by Valuegrowth; 05-06-2023 at 06:47 PM.

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  8. #14678
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SailorRob View Post
    If these numbers are true then you are more than a world class trader.

    I spend a huge amount of time reading the fund letters from around 50 of the best investors with long term outperformance records and many others as well. And I haven't ever seen numbers close to this from any of them. Not even close.

    If you CAGR 20% for the decade beginning in 06 and started with 50k, then added 50k per year (as you would if you were punching out 20%) then you'd end up with 2 million in 2016 and then on that if you earned nothing until 2018 and then on numbers provided by you, through 2023 youd have 17.7 million now.

    This is without the effect of leverage as you say, also you'd have unlimited capital from friends and family if you were getting these numbers.

    So with some leverage etc you'd have to have an absolute minimum of 25 million now, and that's not factoring in your 2017 returns.

    Very very impressive and possible if you're working in nanocaps in that sector.
    Well since 2006 ... I haven't added much if any real extra funds than the 40k I started with and doubled pre forming the company 06 (on advice from the accountant)next big add was 2016 after selling Queenstown property going debt free and having few dollars left over

    I would pay the interest on the loans out of my seasonal job along with other costs many years(then later had small vending business pay costs)

    I agree when you look at my average return last 6yrs I should have way more capital ?? I did pay off loans, buy new car for the wife ..and of course pay the TAX man upwards 28% of my profits ..

    Longer term if indeed once I go through all my accounts for the trading company which I will one of these days ... I'm missing Pre 07 numbers ..

    I know from memory I was smashed over the 08/09 period and then again 12-15 ...I recall if I'd sold all my shares at the bottom i the mid 2010's I'd still have owed the bank and parents over 200k so I must have been down some pretty horrible number -50%+ etc ...it was a very bleak time for me and many Micro-cap ASX resource stock traders of the day wiped out many ..seemed like good or bad news the SP would still fall ..

    COVID 2020 was another date I recall being dumbfounded how such a heather portfolio could turn to ****!! ...smartly I didn't cash out and was rewarded massively...

    I think one must remember I'm not trading millions/billions like the buffets of the world I'm 95% trading 10's thousands ,,, much easier to hunt out those gains ..just go look at say MAY or LRS chart two of my largest holdings at present ... 5%+ moves either way daily is common ...not hard to see how one can trade pips here and there and collect good returns more so swing trade for me... these companies have great volumes and value MAY today total A$1.4Mill LRS A$2.5mill ....I could never trade the NZX

    I had a rough add up last 12months I've had 240x trades
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  9. #14679
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBmurc View Post
    Well since 2006 ... I haven't added much if any real extra funds than the 40k I started with and doubled pre forming the company 06 (on advice from the accountant)next big add was 2016 after selling Queenstown property going debt free and having few dollars left over

    I would pay the interest on the loans out of my seasonal job along with other costs many years(then later had small vending business pay costs)

    I agree when you look at my average return last 6yrs I should have way more capital ?? I did pay off loans, buy new car for the wife ..and of course pay the TAX man upwards 28% of my profits ..

    Longer term if indeed once I go through all my accounts for the trading company which I will one of these days ... I'm missing Pre 07 numbers ..

    I know from memory I was smashed over the 08/09 period and then again 12-15 ...I recall if I'd sold all my shares at the bottom i the mid 2010's I'd still have owed the bank and parents over 200k so I must have been down some pretty horrible number -50%+ etc ...it was a very bleak time for me and many Micro-cap ASX resource stock traders of the day wiped out many ..seemed like good or bad news the SP would still fall ..

    COVID 2020 was another date I recall being dumbfounded how such a heather portfolio could turn to ****!! ...smartly I didn't cash out and was rewarded massively...

    I think one must remember I'm not trading millions/billions like the buffets of the world I'm 95% trading 10's thousands ,,, much easier to hunt out those gains ..just go look at say MAY or LRS chart two of my largest holdings at present ... 5%+ moves either way daily is common ...not hard to see how one can trade pips here and there and collect good returns more so swing trade for me... these companies have great volumes and value MAY today total A$1.4Mill LRS A$2.5mill ....I could never trade the NZX

    I had a rough add up last 12months I've had 240x trades

    Yeah for sure much harder to do with larger amounts of capital.

    Sounds like you've done pretty well, but the CAGR figures might be a bit off after considering what you have posted above.

    What were the reasons you set up the trading company?

  10. #14680
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    why does musk still keep his day job
    MY day job since MAR22 is Share-trading ... after I returned more in one day than I'd made working at sea the previous two year!!! I knew it was time to focus on the main earner ... do have 1x commercial property that adds a few dollars but mostly pays off the loan it still has ..sold my other vending business ..

    So one year later I'm so very happy to be able to continue to focus on what I love trading the ASX ...and not working for anyone else .. I spent many hours over the previous 20 years working at sea dreaming of the day I could walk away be my own boss .. so much doubt in recent years ,,I'd fail and have to go back cap in hand broke ,,I've made it past a year heres hoping I can continue to do what I love ..
    Last edited by JBmurc; 05-06-2023 at 07:38 PM.
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

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