Black Monday

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow...storical-chart

[kiora]

People with negative bias on the market or with current valuations will always love Bearish sounding posts ...but did markets collapse when we went down last time ....No they didnt and neither they will ...Keep analysing charts and ratios to justify bearish bias ...but reality is that long term investing is done best when most are bearish ....I get and got before also ie June last year the impression that experts love to be bearish ...but they keep forgetting markets keep climbing walls of worries and bearishness ....

I am very bullish ahead for markets per se ...especially NZX50G

VIX doesn't seem very worried
https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/%5EV...llciI6MX19XX0-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIX

[winner69]

So currently VIX is saying the SPX is estimated to go up or down 1% a third of the time

Let’s hope it’s all up days

[alokdhir]

Nothing is linear in markets ....but as long as higher highs and lower lows are being formed on medium term basis then it's all good ...imo

Thats what is happening since last June-Oct 2022 ...so all good if we go down some to go little higher then before

Stock Prices follow long term fundamentals of companies ...not easy to make a case for good companies not doing better ahead ...U can keep a good man down for a while but not always !!

Its all about rates then prospects must be rosier ahead ...can max stay higher for LITTLE longer then currently anticipated by markets ....but eventually they will revert to neutral or below neutral ....so nothing much to deter long term investing .

[Daytr]

I think physical roles will become more secure and pay will go up over time. It's something that AI can't do and there's an aging population which means that most people can't do them either.

Some physical jobs might but robotics & machines will have more & more AI tech so things like picking up the garbage, or laying drains etc over a fairly short space of time will become automated. Even building houses will be similar to car assembly plants or perhaps 3D printed. Most of this tech is already out there but will improve rapidly due to AI.

Any rules based function such as accounting or quite a bit of legal work will be performed by AI. It's the creative, the deal makers, the disrupters or where human interaction adds value that will remain in the human domain, at least for a while anyway.

Will there be mass unemployment as a result is the big question & I can't see how people will adapt quick enough to new careers, so I think there has to be.

[Valuegrowth]

AI will take some jobs. AFAIK, companies like IBM and BT either they announced job cuts or paused hiring for jobs. For me it's too early to get an idea about AI,s influnce on the job market.

https://www.fastcompany.com/90906438...ry-sentient-ai

[Daytr]

AI will take some jobs. AFAIK, companies like IBM and BT either they announced job cuts or paused hiring for jobs. For me it's too early to get an idea about AI,s influnce on the job market.

https://www.fastcompany.com/90906438...ry-sentient-ai

And this is why I say the change will be too quick for people to adapt or change career.

If you are graphic artist now I would be thinking of retraining or I wouldn't be advising school leavers to get an accounting degree.

By the time people realise, I.e they see evidence, effectively it will be too late for many. AI is the reason many governments including our own have been promoting a UBI.

[SailorRob]

Not quite. Just some random examples:

BMW has a dividend yield of 5%, BASF of 7.2%, MBG of 6.8%, VOW of 7.3% (but yes, they (VOW) have some issues as well). But yes, they reinvest on top of that a lot into their companies. I like that.

Maybe you look into the wrong direction?

No sport, I look at reality and the math.

If these companies had PE's as you suggest AND were reinvesting earnings into their businesses at attractive rates of return then either the share prices would race up as earnings grew with the retained earnings compounding in which case I find it hard to fathom the PE staying low, or the PE's would forever get lower and lower as the price stayed the same while retained earnings compounded.

But what is actually happening is that retained earnings are destroyed and these companies actually have no economic franchise as explained by Greenwald and the cash generating abilities are far removed from reported earnings.

[BlackPeter]

No sport, I look at reality and the math.

If these companies had PE's as you suggest AND were reinvesting earnings into their businesses at attractive rates of return then either the share prices would race up as earnings grew with the retained earnings compounding in which case I find it hard to fathom the PE staying low, or the PE's would forever get lower and lower as the price stayed the same while retained earnings compounded.

But what is actually happening is that retained earnings are destroyed and these companies actually have no economic franchise as explained by Greenwald and the cash generating abilities are far removed from reported earnings.

Clearly - you don't understand these companies, otherwise you would not use the conjunctive.

Clearly - as well - you seem to subscribe to the efficient market theory, which has been proven wrong again and again.

But keep talking - it sounds like you like the noise your words are making. Somebody has to.

[SailorRob]

Clearly - you don't understand these companies, otherwise you would not use the conjunctive.

Clearly - as well - you seem to subscribe to the efficient market theory, which has been proven wrong again and again.

But keep talking - it sounds like you like the noise your words are making. Somebody has to.

BP

Look at your returns and you will understand what I'm saying. I understand these companies all too well.

If you retain earnings and then use them like your Labour government... you will have low PE's old boy.