Black Monday

[SailorRob]

https://www.claytoncountyregister.co...perform/67743/

Analysts at JPMorgan have identified five global consumer staple stocks that they believe are in a prime position to outperform in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s recent rate hike. The Fed’s decision marks its 11th interest rate hike since the tightening process began in March 2022, bringing borrowing costs to their highest level since 2001.

JPMorgan is particularly bullish on consumer staples, highlighting that it has been one of the best-performing sectors following the last Fed hike. The bank believes that lower bond yields and better relative earnings per share momentum will further support this sector.

This bot needs to have it's plug pulled and preferably soon.

[SailorRob]

But also an individual investor will get different returns as you can't reinvest index dividends fee and tax free.

Remember Berkshire pays tax on all their dividends they receive from equity portfolio. But index return you see online doesn't factor this in.

All that matters is our real world returns.

Another way to think about it is that if Berkshire was a company that had 100% of assets in a SP500 index fund, then Berkshire would underperform the index by quite a lot over time, as it would be paying tax.

[Baa_Baa]

Another way to look at it, rather than just capital share/index price, is that neither the SP500 nor BRKa pay dividends, per se. Invest in a SP500 index linked fund, vs BRKa and it's clear which is winning. BRKa is winning, over the short, medium and longer long term.

So taking the entire 500 companies combined, in the SP500 and comparing it to just one company, BRKa, on capital share price vs index alone, is valid. BRKa has smashed the capital index​ comparison.

But, comparing BRKa that doesn't pay dividends, against 500 of the largest companies in the USA combined, including their dividends, it's remarkable that BRKa is even close to those total shareholder returns. Just a few 10ths of percentage points either way.

Remarkable.

The only difference, in real terms, is that if you owned some of every one of the 500 companies in the SP500 (which is not realistic) and got their dividends as well as unrealised capital gains, you'd be doing a little bit better than EPS on BRKa.

500 companies combined, capital unrealised gains + dividends, versus one company BRKa that doesn't pay dividends, and it's neck and neck. Only a few 10th's of percentage separating them.

That's what Barrons are suggesting. An impossible investment proposition, unless maybe you're a massive fund. Certainly it's impossible for an average investor.

[ValueNZ]

But also an individual investor will get different returns as you can't reinvest index dividends fee and tax free.

Remember Berkshire pays tax on all their dividends they receive from equity portfolio. But index return you see online doesn't factor this in.

All that matters is our real world returns.

Good point. Buffett was bragging about how much tax they paid in his most recent shareholders letter lol.

[SailorRob]

But, comparing BRKa that doesn't pay dividends, against 500 of the largest companies in the USA combined, including their dividends, it's remarkable that BRKa is even close to those total shareholder returns. Just a few 10ths of percentage points either way.

Remarkable.

Yes, but the 500 companies are dramatically underperforming Berkshire and always have, they are just currently getting more votes but weigh much less.

Its all multiple expansion that's done it. The SP500 trades around 20 x vs BRK at around 13.

Berkshire EPS growth is far higher. Accounting is much better and far less write downs, dumb buybacks and equity going to insiders.

[ronaldson]

Yes, but the 500 companies are dramatically underperforming Berkshire and always have, they are just currently getting more votes but weigh much less.

Its all multiple expansion that's done it. The SP500 trades around 20 x vs BRK at around 13.

Berkshire EPS growth is far higher. Accounting is much better and far less write downs, dumb buybacks and equity going to insiders.

And isn't another problem that the Index is a constant, but the constituents are dynamic. BRKa doesn't get the benefit of comparison against companies that either fail absolutely (eg Signature Bank) or perform sufficiently poorly to drop out of the Index over time and be replaced, because you are always measuring vis-a-vis the Index.

[Daytr]

And isn't another problem that the Index is a constant, but the constituents are dynamic. BRKa doesn't get the benefit of comparison against companies that either fail absolutely (eg Signature Bank) or perform sufficiently poorly to drop out of the Index over time and be replaced, because you are always measuring vis-a-vis the Index.

So you just highlighted a positive for investing in the index.

[bull....]

All that matters is our real world returns.

exactly and for all investors that is measured from div's and capital gains

[nztx]

When the Craft Breweries, Wineries & Hospitality outfits start feeling the pinch, falling over and getting sold at fire sale values then there would appear to be a large problem out there ..

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...BDGRDKBFZIBRE/

Brothers Beer put into voluntary administration

How many is that in craft beer / wine line including likes of Good Spirits being hocked off at less than loans value ?

A sure sign of things getting tougher

[Daytr]

When the Craft Breweries, Wineries & Hospitality outfits start feeling the pinch, falling over and getting sold at fire sale values then there would appear to be a large problem out there ..

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...BDGRDKBFZIBRE/

Brothers Beer put into voluntary administration

How many is that in craft beer / wine line including likes of Good Spirits being hocked off at less than loans value ?

A sure sign of things getting tougher

Yep, also a bit of a saturated market if you will pardon the pun