Black Monday

[Azz]

A mortgage free home and passive income to cover day to day life is a luxury I worked hard for. I would never put that at risk. Anything specie is done with spare monies. Im not 25 and I have generations following me who can't eat art or crypto.
I thought kfl warrants looked a little specie today 🤔

I agree: get rid of the table as quickly as possible.

But when paid off, add a revolving credit facility. It's very valuable; well at least I find it so. I keep it at zero most of the time. Need money for, well, anything? boom there she is, no questions asked, no hassles, no minimum payments, no nothing. During the low-interest days it was essentially free money; a little more expensive now lol.

[Snoopy]

Best investment in history, actually.

Rome wasn't built in a day. The 20 years it will take for Bitcoin yearly highs and lows to get closer and closer together (ie, stability) will mean big payoff for those on the ground, first, second floors of this incredible 4-storey asset.

"Failed" huh. Interesting. Guess you don't hold it!

I was talking of a collection of failed cryptocurrencies in my cryptocurrency gallery comment, excluding bitcoin. I have actually changed my mind about bitcoin of late. I think it has an early mover advantage and momentum that will likely see it persist. I see you recognize that in order for Bitcoin to be useful as a currency it must stabilize, reflecting a volatility at most similar to what people expect of 'stable' FIAT currencies today. At that point it ceases to be an 'investment' in its own right. But at what level will it stabilize and when? I don't see a way to rationally answer that question. But I suspect it will take a major crash in value to dislodge all the speculative holders, the last leg of the bitcoin stabilization process.

I also see a risk that certain countries will declare bitcoin an illegal money laundering device and ban all transactions with platforms dealing in bitcoin. You may end up having to go to Azzerbaijen to do your bitcoin banking Azz!

SNOOPY

[Azz]

Back to 'Black Monday'. What thoughts are there on Burry (and Hussman, let's give him credit too, fair is fair) predicting a BIG drop, soon, in the US stock market?

[Azz]

I was talking of a collection of failed cryptocurrencies in my cryptocurrency gallery comment, excluding bitcoin. I have actually changed my mind about bitcoin of late. I think it has an early mover advantage and momentum that will likely see it persist. I see you recognize that in order for Bitcoin to be useful as a currency it must stabilize, reflecting a volatility at most similar to what people expect of 'stable' FIAT currencies today. At that point it ceases to be an 'investment' in its own right. But at what level will it stabilize and when? I don't see a way to rationally answer that question. But I suspect it will take a major crash in value to dislodge all the speculative holders, the last leg of the bitcoin stabilization process.

I also see a risk that certain countries will declare bitcoin an illegal money laundering device and ban all transactions with platforms dealing in bitcoin. You may end up having to go to Azzerbaijen to do your bitcoin banking Azz!

SNOOPY

I apologize; I thought you meant Bitcoin.

[Azz]

I see you recognize that in order for Bitcoin to be useful as a currency it must stabilize, reflecting a volatility at most similar to what people expect of 'stable' FIAT currencies today. At that point it ceases to be an 'investment' in its own right. But at what level will it stabilize and when? I don't see a way to rationally answer that question.

When will this happen (when will it have happened)? When the difference between YEARLY highs and YEARLY lows get closer and closer together, where one day extreme volatility is a thing of the past.

[Azz]

When will this happen (when will it have happened)? When the difference between YEARLY highs and YEARLY lows get closer and closer together, where one day extreme volatility is a thing of the past.

My prediction as to when (a date) this will be is 20 years since the first mined coin. Maybe it's longer. But I think that we, today, are closer to stability than we are to the beginning.

[Valuegrowth]

No recession yet. We can't say this time is different. Every bubble will end up with burst. I prefer defensive stocks(undervalued) more than before after seeeing asset prices in global markets.

Back to 'Black Monday'. What thoughts are there on Burry (and Hussman, let's give him credit too, fair is fair) predicting a BIG drop, soon, in the US stock market?

[Azz]

No recession yet. We can't say this time is different. Every bubble will end up with burst. I prefer defensive stocks(undervalued) more than before after seeeing asset prices in global markets.

I'm pretty worried about New Zealand actually - a proper recession could hit. Like a bad one. People out of work and no money, that sort of thing.

The US, I'm not so sure, re a bad recession. But the US stock market is a bit hot, with too many boats rising with the A.I. tide.

[SailorRob]

"[/COLOR]

What about the one staring at your phone right now?

[SailorRob]

1) Inflaton is not how a recession is measured, it can contribute to a recession, but a recession is declared when there have been two consecutive quarters of negative GDP just like the last two quarters reported which announced the country is in recession. It might be what is called a technical recession, but none the less saying the country isn't in recession let alone "running hot" is a falsehood.

​Oh man. Amateur day. To get GDP you need to know inflation... GDP isn't nominal. So if inflation calc a bit off then your GDP off....

2) My reference to inflation was in your response to you saying consumer spending is high versus GDP as if that is an indication how hot the economy is. Well with consumer spending being inflated by 7% p.a. without any additional consumption, just cost increase against a stalled or negative GDP is the real reflection of that ratio. So people are spending more to get the same or perhaps even less in goods and services.
With half the mortgage market still yet to roll onto higher interest rates, billions more is about to be sucked out of the economy over the next 12 months let alone an estimated $5Bln in export revenue being wiped out from dairy. These numbers don't include the mulitplier effect on the economy as belts are tightened and spending reduces dramatically. So we may be in a 'technical recession' its soon to become a full blown recession.

Agreed

3) Yes I have been shorting US stocks via indicies over the last month or so. And this is where the what planet are you on comes in.
To claim I must be on a big loser when day after day all the indicies are down. The best performer is down about 3.5% in the last month, the worst is down around 14%. So how on earth would you conclude I must be losing money being short US stocks? You just shoot from the hip with mud and hope it sticks. Meanwhile to anyone & I mean anyone that listens to the news or follows stocks would see how stupid these comments are.

You have been shore most of the year. If you havent deleted posts I can prove it. Your latest bout of imbecility may have been successful but so what.

4) Yes I swapped my Kiwi Saver from Equities to cash earlier in the year when the NZX50 was around 12100 & have made a steady 3 - 5% since. So yes, the right move by some margin. Again, that ganja you're smoking must be good!

Oh man why you paying in that rubbish? You lost out massively by not being in USD and US equities... you comparing one relative pile of crap to another.

You have run your mouth off a few times now, only to make a fool of yourself and at the same time insult others.
I am all for constructive healthy interactions but will not sit by and let someone just write absolute fiction to denigrate others to make themselves feel better.

Perhaps you were having a tough day yesterday, going by the litany of posts you put out, it doesn't mean you can't make amends or should get away with such garbage.

No, I've been busy, so when I get time I have to sort out many comments at the same time, not in real time. Like now.



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