Black Monday

[Leemsip]

Yes MFT for long term portfolio. In my view bright horizon, not necessarily within the next year but 5-10 yr +
Management succession gets a big tick from me

Agree with that. I love the way you are just holding the super high quality stocks. I tend to (against my will) buy a lot of down on their luck but will turn around stocks. Do ok with this strategy but involves a lot more focus and analysis time..... and a bit of luck.

[kiora]

Thanks Leemsip. The way I look at it is not buying the shares but buying the company.
What company would I like to own for the long term?
Hence 80% portfolio IFT,20 % FPH
I do have the odd flutter on top. Usually the fluttering just reinforces that fluttering is crap for me.

[Leemsip]

Thanks Leemsip. The way I look at it is not buying the shares but buying the company.
What company would I like to own for the long term?
Hence 80% portfolio IFT,20 % FPH
I do have the odd flutter on top. Usually the fluttering just reinforces that fluttering is crap for me.

Recession coming so hopefully get to splash a big % of my cash (currently getting 5% in a TD) into the top quality - set and forget - companies at a discount.... Hmmmm live and hope eh

[Swala]

I think we can waste a lot of time waiting to get top companies at a discount. If you are a long term investor just buy and forget.

Disc. IFT my biggest holding.

[Leemsip]

Good advice guys. Thanks

[Daytr]

Recession coming so hopefully get to splash a big % of my cash (currently getting 5% in a TD) into the top quality - set and forget - companies at a discount.... Hmmmm live and hope eh

I think having a war chest of cash available at the moment is smart especially when you can get 5% on TD. As I have mentioned before and criticised for 🙄, I switched my Kiwisaver to cash 6 months or so ago and it's worked out well.

I am also looking to free up some more cash to be on standby if overall stocks go where I think they will.

[alokdhir]

Why US markets did not have any capitulation this time when Bull and many others were waiting for S&P 2800 ?

Main reason being all thought its coming so all cashed up and had to chase stocks up from 3500 to 3800 levels !!

Markets only rewards 20% not majority views most of the time ...

MFT has already sounded recession numbers in its trading update and market has already reacted to it ...

Now more chance it will bounce upwards on Nov results then more downwards

Yes if looking for last dominos like retail to fall then can wait few more months to buy HLG / TRA / KMD / WHS types

[thegreatestben]

NZX50 change within first 100 days of an election for the past 30 years.
Looks like markets have done better seeing labour coming rather than going.

Election	Date	Winner	NZX 50 change in first 100 days
1990	October 27	National	-1.2%
1993	November 6	Labour	5.9%
1996	October 12	National	3.2%
1999	November 27	Labour	1.6%
2002	November 27	Labour	0.2%
2005	September 17	Labour	8.5%
2008	November 8	National	-1.1%
2011	November 26	National	6.2%
2014	September 20	National	-10.2%
2017	September 23	Labour	11.5%
2020	October 17	Labour	1.1%

[alokdhir]

NZX50 change within first 100 days of an election for the past 30 years.
Looks like markets have done better seeing labour coming rather than going.

Election	Date	Winner	NZX 50 change in first 100 days
1990	October 27	National	-1.2%
1993	November 6	Labour	5.9%
1996	October 12	National	3.2%
1999	November 27	Labour	1.6%
2002	November 27	National	0.2%
2005	September 17	Labour	8.5%
2008	November 8	National	-1.1%
2011	November 26	National	6.2%
2014	September 20	National	-10.2%
2017	September 23	Labour	11.5%
2020	October 17	Labour	1.1%

I agree that fear / uncertainty of election results is main reason why markets lack lustre at the moment or in limbo ...

After Oct it can come alive barring some very bad outcomes and real economy badly faltering ...small chance of that happening ...imo

[winner69]

I agree that fear / uncertainty of election results is main reason why markets lack lustre at the moment or in limbo ...

After Oct it can come alive barring some very bad outcomes and real economy badly faltering ...small chance of that happening ...imo

.........and the 'blue chips' will take off .....quality wins out .....and Kingfish will be happy