Black Monday

[alokdhir]

As I had mentioned before while quoting Mark Lister of Craigs fame ...that in one month equities can give 10% return when suddenly sentiment / outlook change ...which in NZX terms can be elections conclusion satisfactorily or market getting sure next move in rates is down and not up etc ....as no one can pin point that turning point ...its always advisable to be invested wisely and not try to time the markets ....that was the advise of Mark Lister / Mary Holm and so many experts ...but still people try their luck ...its more luck based then knowledge at play ...imo

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/election-2023-mark-lister-will-we-see-a-post-election-sharemarket-rally/3KPSQ2ZOBVF3LOUKLOZ2RC5YVE/

[Daytr]

As I had mentioned before while quoting Mark Lister of Craigs fame ...that in one month equities can give 10% return when suddenly sentiment / outlook change ...which in NZX terms can be elections conclusion satisfactorily or market getting sure next move in rates is down and not up etc ....as no one can pin point that turning point ...its always advisable to be invested wisely and not try to time the markets ....that was the advise of Mark Lister / Mary Holm and so many experts ...but still people try their luck ...its more luck based then knowledge at play ...imo

Yeah all the fund managers say that as they get paid to manage your portfolio mot to manage cash. Which begs the question what are you paying them for. Some are better than others no doubt.
And for most people I think that's reasonable advice & as I said its not for everyone.
But have you ever had a fund manager say it's a good time sell up or lighten your equities exposure? Why is that? Because they are benchmarked against the market. So if the market drops by 20% they can just point to the market. The last time I did this cash thing the NZX dropped around 10% & I went back into equities & gained 11% in six month on my KS, whereas if I hadn't my KS would likey have been negative after fees and now it would be down again as the NX50 is down since that switch.

Iys not luck if it's a deliberate decision & there are signals in the market that could bring about a decent correction.
2020 was pretty obvious once the pandemic started to take hold in Europe. Unfortunately I only rode half the correction as I didn't anticipate it dropping 40%.
As I say, I'm not saying I'm right its just my view & I am losing very little if any in opportunity cost & I am still Day Trading the volatility in the US markets, but that's my trading portfolio not my investment portfolio.

One thing I have learnt the hard way over the years, is that when opportunity knocks, be in the position to take advantage of it.

[Panda-NZ-]

When there's a signficant correction leveraged ETF's seem attractive (like TQQQ). I wish I learned about them before the pandemic though.

It also allows you to take more risk with general unleveraged ETFs. It matters much less if you're down 40% when you have the opportunity to sell and buy one of the leveraged ETF's instead.

[Daytr]

When there's a signficant correction leveraged ETF's seem attractive (like TQQQ). I wish I learned about them before the pandemic though.

It also allows you to take more risk with general unleveraged ETFs. It matters much less if you're down 40% when you have the opportunity to sell and buy one of the leveraged ETF's instead.

Wow and you aren't the only one to say yhat they didn't know about or understand ETFs on here until quite recently.

ETFs have been around for 30 years but really became prevalent in the last 20 years or so along with CFDs of course which is what I trade.

[Panda-NZ-]

I know what ETF's are... just wasn't aware of the existence of leveraged ETF's (x2 or x3 the index).

[Daytr]

I know what ETF's are... just wasn't aware of the existence of leveraged ETF's (x2 or x3 the index).

Right. The leverage has been around a long time as well.

[winner69]

More money is lost looking for good stocks than is made in finding them …old saying

[Daytr]

More money is lost looking for good stocks than is made in finding them …old saying

Gold as well!

[winner69]

Gold as well!

Better not post on NTL thread then eh

[ValueNZ]

Iys not luck if it's a deliberate decision & there are signals in the market that could bring about a decent correction.
2020 was pretty obvious once the pandemic started to take hold in Europe. Unfortunately I only rode half the correction as I didn't anticipate it dropping 40%.
As I say, I'm not saying I'm right its just my view & I am losing very little if any in opportunity cost & I am still Day Trading the volatility in the US markets, but that's my trading portfolio not my investment portfolio.

Can't be luck if it's a deliberate decision? Pretty sure the blokes at the pokies make a deliberate decision to use the slot machine and will occasionally win a bit of cash.

Just like gambling, timing markets like you did will occasionally pay off. Doesn't mean the wins are statistically significant though, so you don't have the ability to time markets consistently. However if you did I'm sure you'd be one of the richest people in the world quite quickly