Black Monday

[bull....]

Can you name 5 of these many investors?

And can you point me to data that proves I'm wrong that over 90% don't? As this is a very well known statistic. Virtually everyone knows this...

sure , bull and 4 of his bowser mates. anyway i doubt your find data on unknown individuals many probably who beat index's
most data is on fund managers who are all mostly biased to only meet there benchmark and bonus criteria nothing else so all rather meaning less comparing them in data.

only important thing is your money goal and what return each yr to acheive it. all else is noise

[SailorRob]

sure , bull and 4 of his bowser mates. anyway i doubt your find data on unknown individuals many probably who beat index's
most data is on fund managers who are all mostly biased to only meet there benchmark and bonus criteria nothing else so all rather meaning less comparing them in data.

only important thing is your money goal and what return each yr to acheive it. all else is noise

Hmmm I don't recall discussing unknown individuals. Pretty sure I said professional investors.

If your goal is to get from A to B but you unnecessarily climb a mountain each day to get there as you don't understand there is a much easier way then it's not noise...

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...MI3LPIV6HY7WE/

Is this the start of the flood gates or will remain a trickle is the only question in my mind ...

[SailorRob]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...MI3LPIV6HY7WE/

Is this the start of the flood gates or will remain a trickle is the only question in my mind ...

Never be too sure of some future macroeconomic event.

It's not what you don't know that will hurt you, it's what you know for sure that just ain't so.

If I had to bet I'd be inclined to go with you but I have absolutely no idea.

[bull....]

In a pre-Christmas move, our largest bank trims some key mortgage rates, and some not-so-key term deposit offers. Given where wholesale rates have been trending, this may be the start of a move down across the board

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-...rates-and-some

the peak in term deposit Rates is here

although ANZ dropped term deposits rates more than they dropped mtge rates lol. a few more dollars to the banks bottom line

[alokdhir]

Can easily be June or earlier !!

"Q3 GDP and revisions show the economy has been losing momentum to a greater extent than envisaged • Inflation pressures will follow suit • Accordingly, we now expect the RBNZ will first cut the OCR in August 2024

We have brought forward our forecast for the first OCR cut to August 2024, six months earlier than our previous view. We think the recent GDP release was significant: it showed momentum in the economy is grinding to a halt more rapidly than anticipated. We expect weakness will continue into 2024. If it does, inflation pressures are likely to reduce quicker than we had been previously thinking." Although current headline inflation is still high, we are also seeing encouraging signs in recent monthly pricing data that show inflation is falling slightly quicker than the RBNZ had recently been expecting. And while there will be pockets of migration-driven concern for the RBNZ, such as rents and any potential rebound in construction costs, we expect that by the second half of next year the inflation outlook will be comfortable enough for the RBNZ to cut.

[SailorRob]

https://x.com/alifarhat79/status/173...654577394?s=20

Plus a constant stream of inventions that the entire world desires...

Meanwhile we have milk powder and Chinese Gooseberries.

[winner69]

Hey Rob …..you up at Opua at the moment?

[SailorRob]

Hey Rob …..you up at Opua at the moment?

Negative, why do you ask?

I've been off the Sea for a couple of years, currently refitting a new to me yacht.

[Muse]

Hmmm I don't recall discussing unknown individuals. Pretty sure I said professional investors.

If your goal is to get from A to B but you unnecessarily climb a mountain each day to get there as you don't understand there is a much easier way then it's not noise...

There will most likely be some active funds / hedge funds what have you that beat the benchmark but the question is are they comparing the right benchmark and over what time period. It would be easy to pick and choose and put one's performance in a favourable light. And even then, say, they have outperformed a broadly acceptable index and over a consistent period, how does luck factor into it, particularly w/ respect to future returns.

Not a perfect example but one that stuck with me from school.

Imagine a thousand people compete in a coin flipping contest to see who can get heads consistently the most.

After the first flip, ~500 people would be out.

By the fifth flip, statistically 97% people would be out and 3.13% (50%^5) would have flipped heads 5 times in a row. So a lucky 31 people who appear to be masters in their trade, outperforming the lesser 969 mere mortals. People flock around them to see what it was they did to make it happen. Was it the custom suit they wore, the way they polished their nails before flipping, the good luck charm they wore around their neck, or the way they flicked their thumb that made it so.

5 more flips later - getting to 10 flips in a row - only one person stands tall - flipping 10 heads in a row (50%^10 x 1000). All 999 fell by the wayside. The champion is crowned and all are in awe. Go on - flip one more for good fun - you just did 10 in a row surely the odds are a banger for another heads. After all, they've beaten the odds, and over a long period of time. But in reality the chance of flipping another heads is just 50%.

Point being there are thousands of active mutual funds, hedge funds, and so on globally, and each probably managing a handful or two of products - so a huge number of products, and statistically a good chance at least some will have outperformed the index. But is that just luck or skill? Hard to know, IMO.