Black Monday

[Daytr]

There will most likely be some active funds / hedge funds what have you that beat the benchmark but the question is are they comparing the right benchmark and over what time period. It would be easy to pick and choose and put one's performance in a favourable light. And even then, say, they have outperformed a broadly acceptable index and over a consistent period, how does luck factor into it, particularly w/ respect to future returns.

Not a perfect example but one that stuck with me from school.

Imagine a thousand people compete in a coin flipping contest to see who can get heads consistently the most.

After the first flip, ~500 people would be out.

By the fifth flip, statistically 97% people would be out and 3.13% (50%^5) would have flipped heads 5 times in a row. So a lucky 31 people who appear to be masters in their trade, outperforming the lesser 969 mere mortals. People flock around them to see what it was they did to make it happen. Was it the custom suit they wore, the way they polished their nails before flipping, the good luck charm they wore around their neck, or the way they flicked their thumb that made it so.

5 more flips later - getting to 10 flips in a row - only one person stands tall - flipping 10 heads in a row (50%^10 x 1000). All 999 fell by the wayside. The champion is crowned and all are in awe. Go on - flip one more for good fun - you just did 10 in a row surely the odds are a banger for another heads. After all, they've beaten the odds, and over a long period of time. But in reality the chance of flipping another heads is just 50%.

Point being there are thousands of active mutual funds, hedge funds, and so on globally, and each probably managing a handful or two of products - so a huge number of products, and statistically a good chance at least some will have outperformed the index. But is that just luck or skill? Hard to know, IMO.

Yeah it's just luck.
No research or skill involved at all, let alone inside information which is rife in the industry.

[SailorRob]

Yeah it's just luck.
No research or skill involved at all, let alone inside information which is rife in the industry.

So far over the top of its head can't even see it!

[SailorRob]

bending the truth again. its when you start and finish and any neg yrs in the mix thats makes the difference.
the fund managers you keep parroting on about are not special they invested in the period in the last 20 odd yrs where just about any monkey could have done well.

you need to get back to discovering buffett secret sauce. ill give you a clue cause you are having a bit of a problem discovering it.
As ben graham once said that in investing it is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results.

So far over the top of its head can't even see it!

[SailorRob]

bending the truth again. its when you start and finish and any neg yrs in the mix thats makes the difference.
the fund managers you keep parroting on about are not special they invested in the period in the last 20 odd yrs where just about any monkey could have done well.

you need to get back to discovering buffett secret sauce. ill give you a clue cause you are having a bit of a problem discovering it.
As ben graham once said that in investing it is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results.

Last 20 years actually the most difficult period to outperform in history, but in bull language it's the opposite.

The period he actually means is 2009 through 2020. Hardly the last 20 years. And even this period was practically impossible to outperform if you had any focus on value investing.

Remember the index was good only once in the last 100 years 🤔🤣

[bull....]

Last 20 years actually the most difficult period to outperform in history, but in bull language it's the opposite.

The period he actually means is 2009 through 2020. Hardly the last 20 years. And even this period was practically impossible to outperform if you had any focus on value investing.

Remember the index was good only once in the last 100 years 樂藍

lol bending the truth again woithout addressing the point. i must get a new keypad for xmas it keeps leaving out letters anyway what about addressing the point about its when you start and finish and add in some negative yrs determines how well you do .
actually it was easy to do better than sp500 last 20yrs just buy some tech stocks, buffett failed to this thats why he struggled. stock piucking wins always thats what determines good fund managers from bad but in the last 20 yrs odd most fund managers should have done well by just index hugging.

[Joshuatree]

Any guesses for stocks coming out as Broker's Picks this weekend ? MFT ?? SUM ??

Can tell you what won't be ,CRP and NTL
(Fool me once Shame on you,fool me twice...)

[SailorRob]

lol bending the truth again woithout addressing the point. i must get a new keypad for xmas it keeps leaving out letters anyway what about addressing the point about its when you start and finish and add in some negative yrs determines how well you do .
actually it was easy to do better than sp500 last 20yrs just buy some tech stocks, buffett failed to this thats why he struggled. stock piucking wins always thats what determines good fund managers from bad but in the last 20 yrs odd most fund managers should have done well by just index hugging.

No, just but bitcoin. Was that easy.

THAT is why buffett struggled so much. No bitcoin.

Well done bull.

[bull....]

No, just but bitcoin. Was that easy.

THAT is why buffett struggled so much. No bitcoin.

Well done bull.

i said tech stocks not bitcoin. anyway thats why your portfolio has underperformed. your so heavily weighted to berkshire that your portfolio has massively underperformed most monkeys the last 20yrs. you would have been better off being in that fund manager you mentioned.

the fact you failed to see that size would impact buffett performance going forward is a fail on your part.

[bull....]

ASB said it had also adjusted some of its long-term deposits, lowering the 24 month term deposit to 5.8% and all terms between 36 and 60 months to 5.5%.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mon...interest-rates

better lock in those high yielding stocks with safe dividends

[bull....]

No, just but bitcoin. Was that easy.

THAT is why buffett struggled so much. No bitcoin.

Well done bull.

do you even know or have an guess as to why buffett didnt buy tech stocks