Black Monday

[Bikeguy]

I'm at the Central Districts field days and can tell you outlook is grim....

I feel the economy is just hanging on but about to blow up.

Very well said, I am in total agreement.

[JBmurc]

Very well said, I am in total agreement.

Yes the Wanaka API wasn't much in the way of sales going the day I was there ...also talked with a friend that has an insurance broking company .. last year and for many previous average accounts in arrears 2-3 at present it's hitting 40+ per month not paying premiums

[thedrunkfish]

I'm at the Central Districts field days and can tell you outlook is grim....

I feel the economy is just hanging on but about to blow up.

What makes you say that Rawz? Im in the industrial sector in the region and things have got very very quiet all of a sudden.

[Rawz]

What makes you say that Rawz? Im in the industrial sector in the region and things have got very very quiet all of a sudden.

Each year i go to the Southern field days, CD field days and National field days at Mystery creek. Have done so for last 10 years while working in the asset finance industry. So Ive got a bit of a gut feel based on many years of talking to people at the coal face. Just seems suppliers are a bit desperate for sales, too much inventory that needs to be shifted. Punters not buying etc. I havnt seen a start up business for about 9 months. Was seeing 1 a week in 2021 buying diggers, trucks etc from the suppliers.

Interest only requests now, arrears creeping up... Just stuff like that you know what i mean?

Could be wrong about the economy blowing up. Im 90% invested and soon to be 100% once i buy another lot of TWR this week. I own 3 stocks. Findi, Tower and 2CC. All 3 should go alright if the economy goes kaboom.

[thedrunkfish]

Each year i go to the Southern field days, CD field days and National field days at Mystery creek. Have done so for last 10 years while working in the asset finance industry. So Ive got a bit of a gut feel based on many years of talking to people at the coal face. Just seems suppliers are a bit desperate for sales, too much inventory that needs to be shifted. Punters not buying etc. I havnt seen a start up business for about 9 months. Was seeing 1 a week in 2021 buying diggers, trucks etc from the suppliers.

Interest only requests now, arrears creeping up... Just stuff like that you know what i mean?

Could be wrong about the economy blowing up. Im 90% invested and soon to be 100% once i buy another lot of TWR this week. I own 3 stocks. Findi, Tower and 2CC. All 3 should go alright if the economy goes kaboom.

Very interesting insights Rawz, thanks.

[mike2020]

When the likes of TWR and a few others like ATM are in vogue it really shows you how bad the NZX is currently doing and that includes most of the top 50. Slim pickings. We wait for HGH to get under a dollar and OCA is only a good buy in the 50s now? PGW? RYM? AIR? Is this symptomatic of the country as a whole? Or in a hole?

[Bobdn]

It's just hard to know how AI and advances in robotics will impact NZ companies in the future. The productivity gains could be incredible - far beyond what we saw with Lotus 1 2 3 or Word Perfect.

For example, could robotic carers or nurses be the next big thing in the rest home sector within 5 years or so? I'm not talking about a clunky "Robbie the Robot" but a sophisticated synthetic/android like the skin jobs found in the motion picture "Blade Runner". They are virtually indistinguishable from humans. Advances in robotics could have a huge impact on the bottom line of many sectors.

These are the sorts of "big ideas" I try to incorporate into my stock selection process.

[winner69]

Copper prices troughed in June 2023 and are now accelerating ….maybe a signal the Fed should forget about rate cuts and start considering the possibility of rate hikes.

[Panda-NZ-]

For example, could robotic carers or nurses be the next big thing in the rest home sector within 5 years or so? I'm not talking about a clunky "Robbie the Robot" but a sophisticated synthetic/android like the skin jobs found in the motion picture "Blade Runner". They are virtually indistinguishable from humans. Advances in robotics could have a huge impact on the bottom line of many sectors.

Highly unlikely. Robotics still has a way to go and it will be better for repetitive and predictable tasks.

If do we have runaway tech progress then it may cause both deflation and social instability.

[Daytr]

Copper prices troughed in June 2023 and are now accelerating ….maybe a signal the Fed should forget about rate cuts and start considering the possibility of rate hikes.

Not sure about rate hikes, but as I posted a week or two ago, there is an argument for no rate cuts.
Seems the Fed is signalling otherwise though.

NZ on the other hand, I still think we will see rate cuts earlier than most of the market is predicting, which could be interesting for the NZD.