Black Monday

[bull....]

With NZ10Y rate vs US10Y showing smallest gap in recent history ...NZD is very bearish ...all pointing to markets thinking NZ rates will tank faster than US .


NZX should have better year based on above info ...will it ?

nzd very bearish cause economy stuffed at moment.
chickens coming home to roost now the property ponzi flat.
no big companies to produce real profits

[alokdhir]

nzd very bearish cause economy stuffed at moment.
chickens coming home to roost now the property ponzi flat.
no big companies to produce real profits

We should keep emotions out of financial decisions ...we all are market literate enough to understand that economy has to be in recession and labour market in doldrums before the big rate cuts can happen ...Conditions are getting there...Markets will keep rejoicing in 2024 in anticipation of lower rates thus higher multiples and better eps leading to higher valuations ...both multiples will expand and eps growth will happen ahead

FPH showed the way ...so will MFT and IFT and SUM etc ....Its aways past history of rate cycle repeating itself ...nothing different this time ....think 2010 onwards after GFC ....

[alokdhir]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...sted-companies

[Bikeguy]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...sted-companies

Thank you, great article,

[bull....]

We should keep emotions out of financial decisions ...we all are market literate enough to understand that economy has to be in recession and labour market in doldrums before the big rate cuts can happen ...Conditions are getting there...Markets will keep rejoicing in 2024 in anticipation of lower rates thus higher multiples and better eps leading to higher valuations ...both multiples will expand and eps growth will happen ahead

FPH showed the way ...so will MFT and IFT and SUM etc ....Its aways past history of rate cycle repeating itself ...nothing different this time ....think 2010 onwards after GFC ....

you forgot to mention inflation down to 2% lol cause that what ORR job measured on now.

[winner69]

We should keep emotions out of financial decisions ...we all are market literate enough to understand that economy has to be in recession and labour market in doldrums before the big rate cuts can happen ...Conditions are getting there...Markets will keep rejoicing in 2024 in anticipation of lower rates thus higher multiples and better eps leading to higher valuations ...both multiples will expand and eps growth will happen ahead

FPH showed the way ...so will MFT and IFT and SUM etc ....Its aways past history of rate cycle repeating itself ...nothing different this time ....think 2010 onwards after GFC ....

2009;was the year of the big rate cuts

[causecelebre]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...sted-companies

thanks for the link though it’s hard for me to take anything other than a cursory interest in anyone talking their own book

[alokdhir]

you forgot to mention inflation down to 2% lol cause that what ORR job measured on now.

I dont know why u still thinking bearish ? Maybe not yet. done your shopping !! U r savvy enough to know whats happening in market will be the trend ahead ....two up days one down day type ...


PS : Grab some KFL and sleep peacefully for next 5-7 years ...still giving u NZX blue chips at almost 10% discount...lol

[winner69]

There’s a lot of chatter that one of most consequential shifts in global markets over the next decade would be a re-pricing of neutral rate expectations.

For ages it has been sround 2.0%-2.5%, but there’s increasing evidence that in future it may be higher, even 4-5%.

[alokdhir]

There’s a lot of chatter that one of most consequential shifts in global markets over the next decade would be a re-pricing of neutral rate expectations.

For ages it has been sround 2.0%-2.5%, but there’s increasing evidence that in future it may be higher, even 4-5%.

This chatter equates to similar ideas not. so long ago suggesting neutral rates moving notch down from LT averages ...

Inflation control ...main purpose of rates ...so if one. study Inflation expectations ...its reasons etc. then one can drive future LT rates expectations

Recent Inflation flare up was caused by mainly supply side issues / sudden spurt in demand after pandemic shift in human behaviour and excess supply of money to keep masses in good mood while locked or in mental distress caused by pandemic conditions etc ...all these are one off not regular features to be included in LT analysis ...

But on the other hand AI has the. potential to BOOST tremendously human productivity thus causing supply side GLUT leading to very benign rates outlook

I am in the latter AI driven productivity boost supply glut camp thus in benign rates outlook ...LT rates can only come down not move up ...if Inflation control is their only objective ...not politics etc