Black Monday

[skid]

But his father, Isaac, did.

Whenever young Isaac went to visit his mother she would say, when he came back from the privy at the end of garden.
"Did you remember to put the seat down young man? As I used to say to your late father, 'What Goes Up Must Come Down'".
And it is, in part, this remembrance which later inspired him.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS: The whole gravity and toilets thing could be taken further but best we do not pursue this line of thought, even if Isaac did.

I once did a job at a place where when I used the toilet, the seat, when i put it up ,would simply fall back down---I didnt say anything as one of the 2 females (partners) was kind of scary.

Im sure I could make some kind of comparison to todays market,but we have probably digressed enough for one day

[neopoleII]

if you look at this site
http://www.indexmundi.com/commoditie...ver&months=300
and then investigate all the different commodities over the 25 year scale it will show you one thing.
all the graphs are going downhill from 2010ish.
one graph is interesting. several makes you look further but most going down hill on the 25 year scale is an eye opener.
and the peaks of most of the graphs is similar.
and to add to all that...... we still have massive debt( from the last downturn) and are entering the world of negative interest rates....
some one has to pay...... either todays punter/ investor or tomorrows new person entering the global market / workforce / home owner.
we all have a choice......... most dont think there is a choice.

[JBmurc]

IMHO at some stage massive amounts of DEBT will be forgiven (wiped clean)...no way the world economy can grow even with neg rates ....credit expansion out of control is the story of the last 20-30yrs

[nextbigthing]

Does anybody know where I can find the historical PE for the NZX? As per this article.

http://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article...-equities.html

Thanks

[Leftfield]

Does anybody know where I can find the historical PE for the NZX? As per this article.

http://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article...-equities.html

Thanks

Agree, it would be good to be able to track (say) NZX 50 av P/E's to support the article's claim that "New Zealand’s equity market has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.5, compared to a five-year average of 16.2."

In the meantime I've been re-reading Ben Graham's 'Intelligent Investor"......his preference for investments with P/E's of below 20 to 25 is heartening. It would seem that NZX still has some room to move ? (particularly in times of low inflation and low interest rates.)

[winner69]

Agree, it would be good to be able to track (say) NZX 50 av P/E's to support the article's claim that "New Zealand’s equity market has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.5, compared to a five-year average of 16.2."

In the meantime I've been re-reading Ben Graham's 'Intelligent Investor"......his preference for investments with P/E's of below 20 to 25 is heartening. It would seem that NZX still has some room to move ? (particularly in times of low inflation and low interest rates.)

Did you read this comment under that article linked -

On 14 April 2016 at 9:44 am Brent Sheather said:
It’s worth thinking about what Mr Williams is saying here in terms of the discounted cash flow model. The theory says that a share price is simply the discounted net present value of a stock. The very much simplified DCF model is the value of a company’s cash flows in perpetuity discounted at an appropriate discount rate.

Thus what Mr Williams is saying is that the lower the discount rate, which is a function of interest rates, the higher will be the value of the stock. This is quite correct except for the fact that interest rates don’t fall in isolation. As a recent Bank of England report shows the major factor pushing interest rates down globally in the last 30 years has been lower inflation, lower growth and various other factors. So it may not be correct to argue that lower interest rates imply higher price earnings multiples because we are ignoring the top half of the equation ie lower sales growth and thus lower profits and thus lower cash flows. It may be correct but it may not.

Philip Coggan in the Economist magazine frequently argues this point. For example look at Japan in the last 20 years – interest rates have continued to fall but price earnings multiples have fallen with them.

So there is some free CPD but unfortunately it doesn’t involve maximising the value of your business or how to more effectively close a sale.

[winner69]

Agree, it would be good to be able to track (say) NZX 50 av P/E's to support the article's claim that "New Zealand’s equity market has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.5, compared to a five-year average of 16.2."

In the meantime I've been re-reading Ben Graham's 'Intelligent Investor"......his preference for investments with P/E's of below 20 to 25 is heartening. It would seem that NZX still has some room to move ? (particularly in times of low inflation and low interest rates.)

Your broker should have historical PE of the NZ50

If he does ask him how they treat the big losses that XRO etc make

As an aside Morningstar say PE currently is 15.65 and AMP Capital quote a more than 19.......hmmm

[skid]

so one thing that caught my eye was that the US is warning the big banks they do not have enough reserves to make it through another bad patch--and this after gov bailouts ,practically giving money to banks--Everyone knows that they have used the money to speculate but to the point of to little reserves? These big merchant banks are lose cannons---Should we be concerned? It appears to me to be one of those things that doesnt affect day to day trading but could be a real problem if it gets to the point the reserves are needed.

[winner69]

Agree, it would be good to be able to track (say) NZX 50 av P/E's to support the article's claim that "New Zealand’s equity market has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.5, compared to a five-year average of 16.2."

In the meantime I've been re-reading Ben Graham's 'Intelligent Investor"......his preference for investments with P/E's of below 20 to 25 is heartening. It would seem that NZX still has some room to move ? (particularly in times of low inflation and low interest rates.)

I thought that a PE of 15 was the most Mr Graham would go to .....and didn't he tie it with the Price Book ratio as well by mltiplying the PE by PB and if it was more than 22 (?) bad luck no buying hat one

He not the Father of Value Investing for nothing

[trader_jackson]

PE's are higher than usual, lets see if NZ earnings growth can keep up (like it has done in the past few years, mostly)

So far this quarters American reporting season (which, yes has only just started), is no where near as bad as most were forecasting (reminds me of last quarter...)