Black Monday

[BlackPeter]

2 Links to analysis done by Her Majesty's Treasury..Documents released May 2016..Grim reading..I wonder how many Leave voters read this???

HM Treasury analysis : The long term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives (PDF 201 pages)

HM Treasury analysis : The immediate economic impact of leaving the EU (PDF 90 pages)

Just looking at the summary - lots of (and quite sobering) reading ... yes, pity the Brits didn't bother to read it before they made their decision.

[Bjauck]

...
Also I understand there is a two-year timetable for negotiations on withdrawal...FEAR is in control not sense currently ...the UK voted to take back it democracy ..yes they will be punished ... was never going be easy road..

1. Most agree that two years is probably not going to be long enough for negotiations. Even if negotiations are incomplete after the 2 year period, the UK is ejected no matter what. In addition, EU and national leaders have said that negotiations for a UK-EU trade deal will only begin AFTER the UK is outside the EU.
2. Brexiteers have made a leap into the unknown for who knows how long.
3. Brexit campaigners have already backtracked on major promises made by many of them in relation to immigration and increased funding for health services. A duped electorate?

Less than 50% of the registered electorate voted for a Brexit. Surely Brexit has not passed the legitimacy hurdle for a major constitutional, legal and economic change. It is not a binding referendum anyway and the PM who promised to respect it, has resigned and is just a caretaker! The Brexiteers wanted the UK parliament to be sovereign, well this is a time for a parliamentary vote on Brexit. In any case, UKIPs Farage himself said previously that if the Leave side lost by a close margin, that there should be a second referendum.

[BlackPeter]

2 Links to analysis done by Her Majesty's Treasury..Documents released May 2016..Grim reading..I wonder how many Leave voters read this???

HM Treasury analysis : The long term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives (PDF 201 pages)

HM Treasury analysis : The immediate economic impact of leaving the EU (PDF 90 pages)

Great stuff - hoop, just need to share this table ... it basically says all:

BREXIT fallout.JPG

Obviously early days, but if we just look at the fall of the pound it appears the crown analysts had a quite accurate crystal ball ... would think that the English end up somewhere between the 2 scenarios.

Obviously - too late for the Brits to change their decision (though who knows, maybe they kick Boris and Co into their more private parts ... and turn back to the EU?), but not too late for us to use this info to guide future investment decisions!

On the bright side ... you might be correct, hoop - if we look at this analysis than the Brits did find a remedy against both deflation as well as against expensive real estate: Both scenarios predict in the UK a nice inflationary push on the consumer side ... combined with falling house prices. Sounds like paradise ...

[winner69]

Has Cameron well and truly stuffed Boris and his mates? It's up to new PM to trigger this Article 50 seeing Cameron won't.

Boris looking like a man who does not want to be PM. Probably a very short term job if he does and long term political aspirations stuffed.

I would not be surprised if the Tories went for somebody like Theresa May as PM who will say its all too hard and not trigger this Article 50 - a glorious backdown.

What a mess but intriguing

[Bjauck]

...
I would not be surprised if the Tories went for somebody like Theresa May as PM who will say its all too hard and not trigger this Article 50 - a glorious backdown.
What a mess but intriguing

A possible scenario, given less than 50% of the electorate actually voted for the Brexit. A parliamentary vote another possibility? However given Cameron's previous statement to respect the result of the referendum, it would not go down well with the Brexiteers, especially the UKIP supporters.

[winner69]

A possible scenario, given less than 50% of the electorate actually voted for the Brexit. A parliamentary vote another possibility? However given Cameron's previous statement to respect the result of the referendum, it would not go down well with the Brexiteers, especially the UKIP supporters.

Doesn't really matter what was said during the referendum - mostly lies anyway, esp from the leave side.

In an obscure sort of way Britain could be holding a a few aces if they only threaten to follow through and leave and then seek EU reforms.

EU looking a bitbp stuffed eh

[ratkin]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...eave-ebbw-vale

It is fairly difficult to understand how the British electorate could have been so stupid. Ebbw-Vale a prime example. Talk about biting the hand that feeds them. They always were an insular, mistrusting bunch, just like the Cornish who also voted to leave. They were looked after far better by the EU than they ever were by Westminster

[fish]

It would be good to know if this referendum is actually legally binding
The vote was narrow and only represents a minority of potential voters
The impression I have is that a lot that voted for Brexit did so on feelings rather than considering the financial implications.
In the light of day a lot will be having second thoughts
Does it require parliamentary vote to invoke article 50?
When is it likely to happen?-doesnt seem to be immediate and maybe the U.K. has the advantage here if they play for time.
The EU bureaucrats who helped push the UK to this decision want it to happen asap but may well be disappointed if I am reading the mood of the UK

[ratkin]

It would be good to know if this referendum is actually legally binding
The vote was narrow and only represents a minority of potential voters
The impression I have is that a lot that voted for Brexit did so on feelings rather than considering the financial implications.
In the light of day a lot will be having second thoughts
Does it require parliamentary vote to invoke article 50?
When is it likely to happen?-doesnt seem to be immediate and maybe the U.K. has the advantage here if they play for time.
The EU bureaucrats who helped push the UK to this decision want it to happen asap but may well be disappointed if I am reading the mood of the UK

One of my political active friends from Taunton and remain campaigner wrote the following this morning
The % vote in favour of Brexit was barely half and many of those who voted now acknowledge they were making a protest vote, and if they could vote again they would now vote in. Therefore I do not regard this as an overwhelming mandate for Brexit. It is clear that the Brexit brigade have played a massive con-trick on the ordinary voter with their lies about the money they will be able to spend on the NHs and their ability to stop immigration. Also 2 thirds of MP’s are anti-Brexit, so getting the Brexit legislation through Parliament will be difficult. It will be a long process to overcome this vote which was obtained under false pretences. At the moment nobody knows what the Brexit brigade hope to achieve through their negotiations with the EU. Once the proposals have been agreed then I believe we will need another referendum to ratify the proposals where 16 & 17 year olds are also given the chance to vote , bearing in mind it is their futures who are most at stake. I am happy to announce that our ‘Britain Stronger in Europe’ group is not disbanding and anyone who wants to join us is welcome. In the meanwhile please sign the You Gov petition demanding a second referendum -2,273, 000 & rising.

[Cricketfan]

It would be good to know if this referendum is actually legally binding

It's not legally binding.