Black Monday

[fish]

what do any of us know?Im just going by the fact that often the real falls are accompanied by fake rises along the way--so with that in mind ,its a bit early to make ''alls well'' calls.--There are a multitude of things to work out over there--are we really going to assume the separating from the EU and possibly a separation of the UK and other EU counties leaving is just a short lived panic situation and all will be well---that just doesnt feel right to me---If the short term panic doesnt feel right --could it just be because we are so used to status quo of things always bouncing back--I think all suspect that some day they just wont----maybe not now ,but some day -month-year-there will be another 50% drop to shake things out---I just hope it doesnt take the banks with it.

I guess I have the luxury of not having to squeeze every cent out of the capital I have so can afford to think more of protecting and sacrificing future profits--I realize that is not an option for all,and after all is the goal of share trading.

So what are the predictions for monday onwards?

My guess is that Europe will be a political and financial mess for sometime-many years.It wont impact on the productivity and earnings of NZ as much as many expect.
Markets will remain volatile-there will be many trading and investing opportunity.
The Euro and pound may fall further and best not to invest there

[fungus pudding]

So we leave all decisions to the Trumps. Clinton's. Tony Blair's. Helen Clarke's. George Soros.. Obama's. Yeltsin's..

Or perhaps just the Rothchild's ???

At least with their parties and advisors they could make an informed decision on something like the EU, and can be voted out of power. Do you really think the average man in the street had his head around the pros and cons of the EU? I doubt it, yet they were able to vote on this very important matter.

[Hoop]

So we leave all decisions to the Trumps. Clinton's. Tony Blair's. Helen Clarke's. George Soros.. Obama's. Yeltsin's..

Or perhaps just the Rothchild's ???

Yes... it the democratic right that people have usually once every 3 or 4 years.... be able to entrusted certain important people into powerful positions to do the job through majority/coalition vote...Those minorities who didn't vote for them have to suck it up and wait another 3 /4 years..
Often these voted in people/party then surround themselves with advisors and people from high/influential private/public positions (voters have no say with this) to aid with their important decision making...This is the democratic way...

This Black Swan event (Brexit) occurred when the people revolted during reasonably OK economic times..that was unexpected behaviour...

...........which makes me wonder when the Equity Markets regained all its shock losses if Mr Global Market believes the UK in the long run will not leave the EU or only partially leaves thereby adding synergy to both parties..

At least with their parties and advisors they could make an informed decision on something like the EU, and can be voted out of power. Do you really think the average man in the street had his head around the pros and cons of the EU? I doubt it, yet they were able to vote on this very important matter.

Agree.........which brings me back to how many pro-leave individuals did their homework/analysis (including read the Treasury papers below)

2 Links to analysis done by Her Majesty's Treasury..Documents released May 2016..Grim reading..I wonder how many Leave voters read this???

HM Treasury analysis : The long term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives (PDF 201 pages)

HM Treasury analysis : The immediate economic impact of leaving the EU (PDF 90 pages)

[Hoop]

A Black Monday?

No..................Europe/Asia markets closed bullish on Friday..........also US market will be closed Monday...

The VIX Friday is showing lower volatility for the S&P500 later in the month ahead...

No worries..eh

[Rep]

But this leaves the majority left out and left behind on the issues that matter to them.. Auckland housing is a good example of this

Is it a good example at all? The folk who currently own a home in Auckland that I speak to are mostly happy that the value of their homes has increased significantly. Some do have reservations about what their children may face in terms of buying a home... But sensationalist head lines about 80 sq metre cottages going for over $1m in Mangere Bridge aside (it's a waterfront 1100 sq metre property) - most feel good about the growth in their wealth and at present this actually represents a majority as while home ownership rates have fallen they still represent more than 60% of households (noting this isn't consistent across suburbs).

[minimoke]

I always do a share portfolio reconciliation on the first of every month. So 1st july I am a little behind 1 June. But it is still my second highest month this year.

If I look at my total position I'm $100 down this month so really in no position to see what the fuss is a bout.

[Bjauck]

Is it a good example at all? The folk who currently own a home in Auckland that I speak to are mostly happy that the value of their homes has increased significantly. Some do have reservations about what their children may face in terms of buying a home... But sensationalist head lines about 80 sq metre cottages going for over $1m in Mangere Bridge aside (it's a waterfront 1100 sq metre property) - most feel good about the growth in their wealth and at present this actually represents a majority as while home ownership rates have fallen they still represent more than 60% of households (noting this isn't consistent across suburbs).

In the South and West of Auckland home ownership rates have fallen to 38% probably as the result of Investors prepared to bid up the prices, accepting a low yield in the expectation of tax-free capital gains. The same issues that may have resulted in the protest Brexit vote are magnified in NZ - namely immigration pressures and the poorer in Society feeling as though they have been left behind.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/politi...#39;collapsing'
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/8094...f-cheap-houses

Not all home owners are happy in Auckland. Those who own their first home are finding that the difference required has increased at the same rate as the house prices, when they want to move "up the ladder" to buy a larger house for an expanding family and/or in a more sought after suburb.

[Raz]

Is it a good example at all? The folk who currently own a home in Auckland that I speak to are mostly happy that the value of their homes has increased significantly. Some do have reservations about what their children may face in terms of buying a home... But sensationalist head lines about 80 sq metre cottages going for over $1m in Mangere Bridge aside (it's a waterfront 1100 sq metre property) - most feel good about the growth in their wealth and at present this actually represents a majority as while home ownership rates have fallen they still represent more than 60% of households (noting this isn't consistent across suburbs).

It is illusional wealth unless they leave Auckland, can sell down or have investment properties. This illusion retains the status quo.

however the wider NZ taxpayers, which Auckland is far from the majority, now foots the bill in several ways: lower wages, financial credit risk & tax dollars needed on the growing infrastructure needs from Auckland population growth etc.

ps Unless what you really mean and the way the world now works is you inflate assets then borrow against those assets for spending money and they call that "Being wealthy" :-)

[Raz]

So what are the predictions for monday onwards?

My guess is that Europe will be a political and financial mess for sometime-many years.It wont impact on the productivity and earnings of NZ as much as many expect.
Markets will remain volatile-there will be many trading and investing opportunity.
The Euro and pound may fall further and best not to invest there

Well i'm actually investing in UK exporters with good market shares outside EU. They have now a serious competitive advantage.

[macduffy]

Well i'm actually investing in UK exporters with good market shares outside EU. They have now a serious competitive advantage.

Unless, of course, they import a lot of their raw materials/inputs.