Black Monday

[couta1]

dow , s&P holding so far in breakout territory 2 yr consolidation range has 20k target still if it continues to hold us earnings looking good breadth good so lets see big week this week.
nz market still looks cheap relative to others

Cheap when you'rve got stocks like CNU trading on a PE of 30, I don't think so, but a few such as Air/IFT and NZR are still cheap yes.

[Snow Leopard]

Cheap when you'rve got stocks like CNU trading on a PE of 30, I don't think so, but a few such as Air/IFT and NZR are still cheap yes.

You are supposed to look in the direction in which you are travelling.

Making decisions off the back of historical P/E ratios is a recipe for poor performance.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Nasi Goreng]

Does anyone think fibre will be the way we get internet in 30 years? Think back to where we were in 1986 and progress made since then... and then think forward to 2046 when you might have got your money back. I wouldn't pay 30 times earnings for CNU.

[bull....]

Cheap when you'rve got stocks like CNU trading on a PE of 30, I don't think so, but a few such as Air/IFT and NZR are still cheap yes.

guess you wouldn't have pay 200x earnings for amazon either in 2009 when it was 100 now 700 odd

[Hoop]

Cheap when you'rve got stocks like CNU trading on a PE of 30, I don't think so, but a few such as Air/IFT and NZR are still cheap yes.

When valuing cyclical stocks the best reliability is to average the last 10 years data...or average the data over an entire cycle.
Cyclical stocks are a different breed of animal ...danger signs emerge when their PE Ratio become very low...

In other words...
1..the market is telling you that future earnings are no longer sustainable at current values...
2..the market is forward (future) looking, while the financials reported are recent history...hence the low PE at the moment
3..the best time to buy cyclical stocks is (opposite to logic) when their PE ratio is very high..not when their PE Ratios are extremely low.

try googling how to value cyclical stocks

[cyclist]

3..the best time to buy cyclical stocks is (opposite to logic) when their PE ratio is very high..not when their PE Ratios are extremely low.

Would another way of saying the same thing?: Buy when they are historically cheap in $ terms, and they are cheap because everything (profit) has turned to crap.

[fish]

I wouldn't be interested in buying most shares on the NZX currently,overinflated prices being driven by divvy hunters giving little or no thought as to whether what they are buying is at a reasonable price or not, as long as its better than a term deposit it will do kinda mentality, now when is the next black Monday due to arrive?

Nor were you interested in buying chorus when they were $2.
SP has many drivers-its a little more complex than you assume
I must admit I sold all my chorus a couple of weeks ago-and they have kept rising since-but I did keep buying as it kept dropping below $2 and for a short time I wondered if you were right.
Sentiment can drive prices both too high and too low and no one knows where the nzx will be next week-or next year
My chorus gains mitigated my nzo losses- my intention is always to buy with future dividends in mind rather than trade.However I decided I wanted a charter boat more than chorus shares but have kept NZO even though they seem unlikely to be paying dividends anytime soon.
I wouldnt presume the majority of investors are giving little or no thought as to what is a reasonable price.

[couta1]

Nor were you interested in buying chorus when they were $2.
SP has many drivers-its a little more complex than you assume
I must admit I sold all my chorus a couple of weeks ago-and they have kept rising since-but I did keep buying as it kept dropping below $2 and for a short time I wondered if you were right.
Sentiment can drive prices both too high and too low and no one knows where the nzx will be next week-or next year
My chorus gains mitigated my nzo losses- my intention is always to buy with future dividends in mind rather than trade.However I decided I wanted a charter boat more than chorus shares but have kept NZO even though they seem unlikely to be paying dividends anytime soon.
I wouldnt presume the majority of investors are giving little or no thought as to what is a reasonable price.

Sentiments of Fear and Greed are the main drivers of SP, Greed is in charge currently. PS - I've held many shares on and off since Chorus was $2 including Chorus itself and wouldn't buy it at its current price nor Spark for that matter.

[Raz]

I wouldn't be interested in buying most shares on the NZX currently,overinflated prices being driven by divvy hunters giving little or no thought as to whether what they are buying is at a reasonable price or not, as long as its better than a term deposit it will do kinda mentality, now when is the next black Monday due to arrive?

should be quote of the day...keeping it real Couta1

[Ace]

Agree that fear and greed do drive SP, however a good quote comes to mind from Buffett, "It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price." and ultimately it depends what you think is a fair price which in turn determines how good of an investor you may be comparatively to others, although that shouldn't matter and it's about improving on your own record. In the end I wouldn't focus too much on market sentiment, which usually stirs investors down the wrong path - I believe it's a lot easier to pick a good or decent company than buying or selling a company at the perfect time. If the fundamentals are sound, the price will reflect this in the long run. You can never accurately guess what the market will do. But that's just me - several weeks ago I was considering selling some of my holdings to fund my purchase of a Testarossa from the states, one of my dream cars as a child - so I guess that brings my financial acumen under question, so it may be best just to ignore me lol.