Black Monday

[Hoop]

And if the fed did raise interest rates that would cause a drop in $NZ relative to US and in turn would help companies like SCL and SEK. It would even make NZ more attractive to tourists and give AIR another boost. So would not be all bad.

hmmm...Be careful what you wish...... I can't remember NZ being overrun by hoards of tourists when our NZ$ hit US$0.40 back in 2001 but I can remember the exporter complaining they wanted the $ lower again....Importers were bitching and disappearing leaving less consumer selection but most couldn't afford to buy anything anyway..heaps of tradies had no work = no mon no fun....NZ stockmarket turned into a big bear.. Our Ozzie neighbor got filled up with Kiwis....and visions of Banana Republic from the 1980's era got revisited......the beginning of AIRNZ slide to bankruptcy

Edit: this was one year before 9/11 so no excuses please

[macduffy]

As the saying goes:

History doesn't repeat - it rhymes.

Whatever that means!

[skid]

As the saying goes:

History doesn't repeat - it rhymes.

Whatever that means!

It means there are lots of different ways to suffer

[Jantar]

hmmm...Be careful what you wish...... ...

Not that I wish, as I also hold HLG and STU which would not do well with a lower dollar.

[Valuegrowth]

According to this article, conditions today are different from last summer, and a repeat of last August’s swoon probably can be avoided. We have to wait and see. With all these noises still there are opportunities in global markets.

Sorry .. I do not understand ..

Maybe my PC.. Maybe I did not receive all content.. Maybe I am dumb..

Could you please expand on that ??

Do appreciate your postings.

[neopoleII]

""I can't remember NZ being overrun by hoards of tourists when our NZ$ hit US$0.40 back in 2001""

i remember trying to sell a lifestyle back then (north facing bombay hills with auckland views) and even advertised overseas with no results.
sold the block at a depressed price.... and lost money.
fast forward to today...... the property is worth more than everything that i have ever made in my life.
different times back then...... and lots of people were watching the dollars and expenditure.

in my case i was cash flush back then but had a "high maintenance partner" that wanted horse land - not prime views.
hard lesson .... but i survived and have a priceless wife now........ living in a cardboard box.
"best things in life are........"

[janner]

""I can't remember NZ being overrun by hoards of tourists when our NZ$ hit US$0.40 back in 2001""

i remember trying to sell a lifestyle back then (north facing bombay hills with auckland views) and even advertised overseas with no results.
sold the block at a depressed price.... and lost money.
fast forward to today...... the property is worth more than everything that i have ever made in my life.
different times back then...... and lots of people were watching the dollars and expenditure.

in my case i was cash flush back then but had a "high maintenance partner" that wanted horse land - not prime views.
hard lesson .... but i survived and have a priceless wife now........ living in a cardboard box.
"best things in life are........"

Cardboard Box.... LUXURY !!!...

[Hoop]

As the saying goes:

History doesn't repeat - it rhymes.

Whatever that means!

Scary predictions. Perfect for a Black Monday.

http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/83...nomic-academic

Another good read

[Mush]

Long time reader, first time Poster.

My take on current market conditions:
NZX has becoming increasingly correlated with global movements in the past few years. Now over half of NZ stocks have foreign ownership (up from 29% odd 2012). Saw the effects of the market momentarily re-pricing a higher chance of a fed hike in Sept last Friday (NZX down 2.5% on Monday, along with other major global indices being the most recent example). So we are vulnerable for capital flight in times of stress.
Markets are on FED watch at the moment, IMO it seems like they are looking for any excuse NOT to hike and are worried about the effects divergent monetary policy will have on already fragile international monetary conditions.

Attached:
A Graph showing NZD/USD and the NZX50 performance this year. Noting the relative correlation between the two.
To me, this helps explain why the NZD has been stubbornly bid despite the RBNZ's easing cycle (foreign yield hungry flows).
NZX50 up around 16% YTD, to me valuations continue to be stretched as equity risk premiums are compressed (willing to take lower yield for same risk profile), rather than fundamental earnings growth.


Attachment 8316

Should be some interesting times between now and the end of the year.

Mush

[Hoop]

Long time reader, first time Poster.

My take on current market conditions:
NZX has becoming increasingly correlated with global movements in the past few years. Now over half of NZ stocks have foreign ownership (up from 29% odd 2012). Saw the effects of the market momentarily re-pricing a higher chance of a fed hike in Sept last Friday (NZX down 2.5% on Monday, along with other major global indices being the most recent example). So we are vulnerable for capital flight in times of stress.
Markets are on FED watch at the moment, IMO it seems like they are looking for any excuse NOT to hike and are worried about the effects divergent monetary policy will have on already fragile international monetary conditions.

Attached:
A Graph showing NZD/USD and the NZX50 performance this year. Noting the relative correlation between the two.
To me, this helps explain why the NZD has been stubbornly bid despite the RBNZ's easing cycle (foreign yield hungry flows).
NZX50 up around 16% YTD, to me valuations continue to be stretched as equity risk premiums are compressed (willing to take lower yield for same risk profile), rather than fundamental earnings growth.


Attachment 8313

Should be some interesting times between now and the end of the year.

Mush

Welcome Mush....I can't open up your attachment...is it you or me