Black Monday

[Mush]

but also they have hiked plenty of times when the economic data has been weak looking past to the big picture

Agreed, however in those instances the market was expecting a move regardless of economic data. In the case of tomorrow the market isn't expecting a hike, hence the widely held view that they wont move. They want to avoid adding to volatility by shocking markets.

Probabilities shown below with almost 60% priced in by Dec meeting.

Attachment 8319

[bull....]

IMO the NZ market is more pumped than most others due to the high proportion of yield stocks. So I suggest it has further to fall then other markets whenever the FED raises their benchmark rate. I am 100% out, have been since April. I believe the NZX is currently in the process of transitioning into a bear market, but that is simply my opinion. I see the possibility/probability of the Don poling above Hilary as the next imminent catalyst for the VIX index to rise and share markets to fall, even though the Don may be seen as more pro-business. If he gets elected, although unlikely, I think lots of money would be repatriated from foreign investments including NZX. And once the exodus begins, investors behave like sheep rather than rational individuals. Company fundamentals mean absolutely nothing

I put recent hawkish FED comments down to them increasing market preparation for a rise, not signalling that the increase is about to happen. Very unlikely they would act so close before a Presidential election

agree with a lot of things you say but the fed has been talking hawkish for ages and still havnt had the guts to pull the trigger 1/4 pt means jack really but at least they will get some credibilty back

[bull....]

Agreed, however in those instances the market was expecting a move regardless of economic data. In the case of tomorrow the market isn't expecting a hike, hence the widely held view that they wont move. They want to avoid adding to volatility by shocking markets.

Probabilities shown below with almost 60% priced in by Dec meeting.

Attachment 8319

your probably right the markets are the feds master

[skid]

your probably right the markets are the feds master

I believe there is a train coming from both directions--theres the obvious market jolt when they do rise--and on the other side they are seeing the diminishing results that the QEs and now easy money are actually having in terms of boosting the economy- They wont have much of a choice but to start the withdrawals,even with not great results that quarter.
Somewhere down the line,we,or our sons, will be better off.

Disc.-Im out as well (shares) but do have Gold which will get walloped by an interest rate rise,but possibly will kick in if markets fall alot.

[Baa_Baa]

At times you'd think it's all about the US Fed and their interest rates, but apparently lots of the CB's are in trouble and quite a few sovereign states as well, even some of the largest. http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/worl...ble-will-burst

[drcjp]

I believe the poet Denis Glover described current market behaviour very well when he wrote;

"Little for the many,
much for the some,
everybody's biting,
everybodies bum".

[janner]

I believe the poet Denis Glover described current market behaviour very well when he wrote;

"Little for the many,
much for the some,
everybody's biting,
everybodies bum".

Quardle oodle ardle wardle doodle..

Just about sums up the market these days :-)))))

[Sgt Pepper]

"Get ready for the mother of all stock market corrections once central banks cease their money printing"

Headline of an analysis in the latest Telegraph.

[see weed]

"Get ready for the mother of all stock market corrections once central banks cease their money printing"

Headline of an analysis in the latest Telegraph.

It is ok, I had a prayer this morning, everything should be all right for a while.

[bull....]

no rate increase lol reckon they missed the boat this yr cant see a rate increase in dec esp if trump wins