Black Monday

[BlackPeter]

Are you referring to the Rothschild report that @BlackCross posted?

There was a number of posts preparing us for the next big crash (one from Sgt Pepper a bit up the page), but yes, the Rothschild report does as well talk a lot about problems to come (Chinese Banking, Brexit, American Elections, Middle East conflict and many many more). Sure - but again, whats new? The world has always had a large number of problems and conflicts and can't stop worrying about them. WWII, the communist threat, nuclear overkill, peak oil, global warming are just some of them - and still, the globe kept turning and the long term trend for stocks kept pointing upwards ...

[Baa_Baa]

There was a number of posts preparing us for the next big crash (one from Sgt Pepper a bit up the page), but yes, the Rothschild report does as well talk a lot about problems to come (Chinese Banking, Brexit, American Elections, Middle East conflict and many many more). Sure - but again, whats new? The world has always had a large number of problems and conflicts and can't stop worrying about them. WWII, the communist threat, nuclear overkill, peak oil, global warming are just some of them - and still, the globe kept turning and the long term trend for stocks kept pointing upwards ...

Yes that's true, I didn't read the Rothschild commentary as a "doomsday prophet" though, it just pointed out a number of risks to markets they they observe, all seem quite valid, but more interesting was their response weighting and de-weighting portfolio percentages. It's good to read what such a large investor is doing and how they view the market risks and opportunities.

[arc]

There was a number of posts preparing us for the next big crash (one from Sgt Pepper a bit up the page), but yes, the Rothschild report does as well talk a lot about problems to come (Chinese Banking, Brexit, American Elections, Middle East conflict and many many more). Sure - but again, whats new? The world has always had a large number of problems and conflicts and can't stop worrying about them. WWII, the communist threat, nuclear overkill, peak oil, global warming are just some of them - and still, the globe kept turning and the long term trend for stocks kept pointing upwards ...

So I take it then that you are selling out as fast as you can, in multiple small sized lots..?

[skid]

There was a number of posts preparing us for the next big crash (one from Sgt Pepper a bit up the page), but yes, the Rothschild report does as well talk a lot about problems to come (Chinese Banking, Brexit, American Elections, Middle East conflict and many many more). Sure - but again, whats new? The world has always had a large number of problems and conflicts and can't stop worrying about them. WWII, the communist threat, nuclear overkill, peak oil, global warming are just some of them - and still, the globe kept turning and the long term trend for stocks kept pointing upwards ...

This is kind of one of those things that i hope your right,but think you may be wrong-partly because I hav'nt heard a satisfactory explanation of how its going to come right,or even continue on,and plenty about how it can come unstuck.

[davflaws]

The second most used phrase in this site (after DYOR) is "This time is (or isn't) different.
So given that here will continue to be surges and corrections, is the long term trend still up? Or is this time different?

[skid]

The second most used phrase in this site (after DYOR) is "This time is (or isn't) different.
So given that here will continue to be surges and corrections, is the long term trend still up? Or is this time different?

Are you talking about the markets or the Feds interest rates,because those are 2 very different things....but seriously..many think that this trend you are speaking of is actually not an ''honest'' trend. Its a longish brew that is leading up to an inevitable fall of the dominoes--something that has been created (this fiscal policy) that is heading towards a very hard landing. QEs and low interest cannot carry on forever. They lose their punch,until they do nothing to help any more-then there is nothing left in the arsenal to help with the next catalyst that brings the market down. So according to many-''this time'' has been brewing for a long while.(doesnt mean some have not made alot of dosh though) But I guess we need to look at where to from here.

[moimoi]

QEs and low interest cannot carry on forever.

How do you know this?

[peat]

How do you know this?

it is presumably an assumption made on the basis that printing money will debase a currency and must eventually result in hyperinflation , and very low (negative) interest rates will destroy many important parts of the capitalist system eg the insurance industry

[Valuegrowth]

It is hard to predict anything. However we can have some estimation based on our own study. I don’t agree “that this time is different. There are cycles. For example, I believe NZD should begin its major down trend from 2017/18 onwards. For me major uptrend is intact for selected markets and stocks. In addition, there are undervalued markets and stocks.

Other thing is despite higher P/E ratio, there are investors and traders ready to pay premium for some American tech stocks. Their food stocks also have great demand.

DYOR

The second most used phrase in this site (after DYOR) is "This time is (or isn't) different.
So given that here will continue to be surges and corrections, is the long term trend still up? Or is this time different?

[moimoi]

it is presumably an assumption made on the basis that printing money will debase a currency and must eventually result in hyperinflation , and very low (negative) interest rates will destroy many important parts of the capitalist system eg the insurance industry

8 years in and no hyperinflation and according to the RBNZ numbers, no inflation to speak of...perhaps another 8 years?