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Thread: Black Monday

  1. #2761
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    Quote Originally Posted by moimoi View Post
    How do you know this?
    That was a bit of an absolute statement was'nt it(should have put an (imo)---They can of course stay low,but from what Ive read the longer they stay SO low ,the greater the risk of a bubble from all that easy money and the damage that occurs when it breaks,which can happen for any number of reasons-(look at the share market and housing)-They were put low to encourage growth in the economy which unfortunately has not happened anywhere near what they had hoped. Theres been alot of speculation though (Russian roulette?)

  2. #2762
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    Quote Originally Posted by skid View Post
    This is kind of one of those things that i hope your right,but think you may be wrong-partly because I hav'nt heard a satisfactory explanation of how its going to come right,or even continue on,and plenty about how it can come unstuck.
    Not sure what you mean with "you hope I am right" ... I am just saying that while the actual threats might change (conflicts in different regions of the world, global warming replacing nuclear overkill ... and so on) the absolute "threat level" did not change. However - there used to be crashes before ... and there will be crashes in the future, and while I don't see any imminent threat - the next crash may or may not be around the corner.

    Can we avoid it by listening to doomsday preachers - for sure not, but we would create some more (self full filling prophecies)

    If & when it comes ...
    is it likely to ruin some investors - probable;
    is it likely to impact on most peoples wealth for some time? - for sure
    will it be the end - definitely not!
    will it end the long term uptrend ... I don't think so.

    Interesting - even really bad events (like WWII) didn't hit the DOW too hard. Depending on what MA you use - the time from 1932 to 1965 was basically all bullish (of course with some corrections in between). Have a play with the chart:
    http://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-...storical-chart
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  3. #2763
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    Quote Originally Posted by arc View Post
    So I take it then that you are selling out as fast as you can, in multiple small sized lots..?

    What makes you think that?
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  4. #2764
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    Interesting reflections about Japan (economic stagnation for the last 2 decades) and the next economic crash in Chris Lee's "Taking Stock" released 22. September 2016:

    https://www.chrislee.co.nz/taking-stock
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  5. #2765
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    What makes you think that?

    Just joking...a bit of dark humour...

    I worked with a broking firm for a while, heard many people talking something up while they were actually making an orderly exit...

  6. #2766
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    us election debates start next week so could provide direction or volatility going forward, anyway nasdaq new highs and others not to far behind targets still look on track at this stage
    one step ahead of the herd

  7. #2767
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    Can I throw this out there and ask for comment or opinion. Are the Kiwisaver "fixed interest rate" managed funds tied to an index in some way to measure contributors account holding? Do these work like bonds where as interest rates/yields fall the bond value increases? If so, are there potentially going to be some very disappointed wage earners in the future, who have been advised or chosen to stick with a so called conservative saving plan, only to find that should interest rates start to rise in the future they experience a degree and possibly significant amount of capital value loss?

  8. #2768
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    Quote Originally Posted by littletramp View Post
    Can I throw this out there and ask for comment or opinion. Are the Kiwisaver "fixed interest rate" managed funds tied to an index in some way to measure contributors account holding? Do these work like bonds where as interest rates/yields fall the bond value increases? If so, are there potentially going to be some very disappointed wage earners in the future, who have been advised or chosen to stick with a so called conservative saving plan, only to find that should interest rates start to rise in the future they experience a degree and possibly significant amount of capital value loss?
    I'd guess that "fixed interest rate" kiwisaver funds are primarily invested in company and Govt bonds, but only guessing, so their value will rise and fall with the value of the underlying bonds.

  9. #2769
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by arc View Post
    Just joking...a bit of dark humour...

    I worked with a broking firm for a while, heard many people talking something up while they were actually making an orderly exit...
    Not my style ...

    currently fully invested (after picking up some WHS this morning ...) but the cash reserve I always hold ...
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  10. #2770
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    Quote Originally Posted by littletramp View Post
    Can I throw this out there and ask for comment or opinion. Are the Kiwisaver "fixed interest rate" managed funds tied to an index in some way to measure contributors account holding? Do these work like bonds where as interest rates/yields fall the bond value increases? If so, are there potentially going to be some very disappointed wage earners in the future, who have been advised or chosen to stick with a so called conservative saving plan, only to find that should interest rates start to rise in the future they experience a degree and possibly significant amount of capital value loss?
    you make money from interest payments on these accounts so if they only invest in cash little risk of losing your money unless the bank goes bust which is not impossible under nz legislation as they will use your money in deposit to save the bank, if the fund has bonds they make capital gains as well as interest payments in a falling interest rate environment you lose value on your bonds in a rising rate environment but only if you sell if you hold to maturity you shouldn't lose capital and still get your interest payments. but you can still lose your capital if the fund has corporate bonds and the company goes bust.

    anyway the point should be going ahead if we stay in a low rate environment get used to ultra low returns from these accounts
    one step ahead of the herd

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