Black Monday

[BlackPeter]

You read it hear first folks......"I predict Black Monday will take place the first Monday following Donald Trump's election."

... is this the same year when Easter Sunday and Boxing Day fall on Waitangi Day?

I could well imagine some street fighting after Hillary's landslide victory. Trump is a vicious bully with the intention to leave only scorched earth after his demise - and so are the crowds supporting him. No respect for democracy. Not sure, though this will have a lasting impact on the share markets. I think a relieve rally on Wednesday (Nov 9th) - well, Thursday, November 10th at our place is more likely to happen ...

[fungus pudding]

... is this the same year when Easter Sunday and Boxing Day fall on Waitangi Day?

I could well imagine some street fighting after Hillary's landslide victory. Trump is a vicious bully with the intention to leave only scorched earth after his demise - and so are the crowds supporting him. No respect for democracy. Not sure, though this will have a lasting impact on the share markets. I think a relieve rally on Wednesday (Nov 9th) - well, Thursday, November 10th at our place is more likely to happen ...

You can bet your bottom dollar Hilary will win cos the election is rigged. Trump says so. So there.

[winner69]

You read it hear first folks......"I predict Black Monday will take place the first Monday following Donald Trump's election."

Wont be much of a fall - after a Black Wednesday and Thursday and Friday

[BlackPeter]

Interesting Monday, yesterday - and today might be just a repeat of that. International markets over night (but the Nikkei) kept dropping.

With the NZD dropping as well against all major currencies it is probably a fair assumption that foreign money is pulled out of NZ - which means that the NZX rebound (which is certain to come at some stage) will get less of a boost.

Overall - there might be some buying opportunities later this week (or next week?), though I assume that volatility will reign at least until the outcome of the US elections is known. God help us all if it is Trump.

Keep safe out there ...

Discl: still holding a lot of shares, but more cash than usual (approaching 20%) ...

[skid]

You read it hear first folks......"I predict Black Monday will take place the first Monday following Donald Trump's election."

Well....that did come out of left Field......I agree with PART of your prediction...If Trump wins(now 11.6% chance) there will be a very black Monday

Its certainly looking like there will be trouble when(88.4%)Trump loses--Narcissists do not take defeat nicely

Ive got a friend over there that is showing all the signs of being in a cult--seriously

GOLD--Ive heard gold bars make good doorstops........ seriously though--sometimes the best way to lose something is to try to hard to hide it----when is the last time you saw someone rifling through all that junk thats been under your garage for the last 10yrs

[arc]

Interesting Monday, yesterday - and today might be just a repeat of that. International markets over night (but the Nikkei) kept dropping.

With the NZD dropping as well against all major currencies it is probably a fair assumption that foreign money is pulled out of NZ - which means that the NZX rebound (which is certain to come at some stage) will get less of a boost.

Overall - there might be some buying opportunities later this week (or next week?), though I assume that volatility will reign at least until the outcome of the US elections is known. God help us all if it is Trump.

Keep safe out there ...

Discl: still holding a lot of shares, but more cash than usual (approaching 20%) ...

Personally Im beginning to think it wont matter who wins the election, the markets are reacting to global situations (The US situation represents a speed bump but its only one of a number of factors to model into the picture) . I think the present decline may continue through Christmas.

[blackcap]

Well....that did come out of left Field......I agree with PART of your prediction...If Trump wins(now 11.6% chance) there will be a very black Monday

Its certainly looking like there will be trouble when(88.4%)Trump loses--Narcissists do not take defeat nicely

s

The bookies give Clinton a 82% chance of winning and Trump a 15.6% chance, so it looks likely that it will be a Clinton win. Do not think there will be trouble though if Trump loses... what kind of trouble to you envisage Skid?

[Hoop]

The quote "The economy stupid" coined by James Carville (Bill Clinton's Campaign Strategist) outlined the recessionary times during 1992 Presidential race between Bill Clinton and George H.W.Bush...The phrase became a snowclone for American Political Culture
What is interesting is as far as I'm aware Hillary and her merry band haven't used the phase...maybe the economy is in too good a shape..eh..Obama reign started near the end of the GFC so His economy performance stats will be huge..

A recent Business Insider Article written by Elena Holodny on the 15th October basically sums it up with the article's title Elections and the stock market: History tells us economics matter more than politics. Could it be different this time?

Quote from Cafemom.com...In "Presidential Cycle," Ned Davis Research notes the S&P 500 posted its weakest returns in the first year of the four-year election cycle. Since 1900, stocks have gained just 3.4% on average in the post-election year, compared with gains of 4.0% in the midterm year, 11.3% in the pre-election year and 9.5% in an election year. See chart in Trustmarks PDF article

How have stocks fared from Election Day to year's end? When a Democrat wins, stocks have lost 1%, while rising 4% if a Republican wins, Bespoke Investment Group says (paywall but has 14 day free trial) .

[arc]

Well....that did come out of left Field......I agree with PART of your prediction...If Trump wins(now 11.6% chance) there will be a very black Monday

Its certainly looking like there will be trouble when(88.4%)Trump loses--Narcissists do not take defeat nicely

Ive got a friend over there that is showing all the signs of being in a cult--seriously

GOLD--Ive heard gold bars make good doorstops........ seriously though--sometimes the best way to lose something is to try to hard to hide it----when is the last time you saw someone rifling through all that junk thats been under your garage for the last 10yrs

Skid, are you looking for that stack of gold bars you coated with Lead to look like old fishing sinkers...
Did the scrap man take them away...????

[Lewylewylewy]

Agree with the xmas slide (something that sounds more fun than it really is).

We've got:

Fed rates increase = money leaving nz investments
NZ OCR going down = money leaving NZ investments
Low inflations = outlook of more OCR dropping = speculation causing money to leave NZ investments
Trump risk = investors preferring cash

will continue up to xmas because of the spread of events through to xmas.

Good time to be committing to holding or selling up. I partially sold, but hold more than I wanted (I actually accidentally bought a load with a low ball offer I had sitting there, which kicked in after my sell. Grrr.). Iritating, but I'll just stick with my current holdings and ride it out, hopefully topping up around xmas. I'm just imagining that I put the money in a crap return term deposit, because I'll still get divies and investments are safe - there's no risk with this drop, but missed out on bargains.