Black Monday

[Daytr]

Oil demand has increased as the price of oil has plummeted and demand is somewhat elastic as I pointed out some months ago, but got shot down for by a few pundits. However demand or driving season is coming to an end and there lies the problem in regards supply and over hanging stock build of oil at this point. Crude stocks are about to balloon again.

[Daytr]

Just shorted the DOW with a fairly tight stop.
A bit of a punt, but after seeing some of the sales pitches from the Wall Street types, I think this market is in trouble.
They really would sell their grandmother wouldn't they.
Remind me. What was John Key's role in banking? ;-)

[skid]

I can say I haven't taken a hit. Non of my stop losses were triggered so I have sat out the last few days out. Portfolio as at last night still up 14% (ex dividends) on prior year so I don't see a need to lock in losses by selling.

I have no idea what will happen on wall Street tonight. I'm not worried and if my stop loss is triggered I'll take the hit. I generally don't sweat the day to day ups and downs as I'm not a day trader.

It is fun sitting on the side lines and watching though.

I understand what you are getting at--especially if you think this is just a storm in a tea cup--but if your 14% up ,you would not be locking in losses -you would be locking in profits--(if you are wrong about this correction)

[macduffy]

Just shorted the DOW with a fairly tight stop.
A bit of a punt, but after seeing some of the sales pitches from the Wall Street types, I think this market is in trouble.
They really would sell their grandmother wouldn't they.
Remind me. What was John Key's role in banking? ;-)

Now I never knew that!

John Key has been responsible for the recent ructions on Wall Street!

[Daytr]

Ha ha, nope just comparing the sales pitch he does for every government asset he can lay his hands on.

[Hoop]

Just shorted the DOW with a fairly tight stop.
A bit of a punt, but after seeing some of the sales pitches from the Wall Street types, I think this market is in trouble.
They really would sell their grandmother wouldn't they.
Remind me. What was John Key's role in banking? ;-)

bang on the 38.2%FIB resistance....I've seen many worse punts than yours Daytr..incl some of my own

Yeah the sale pitches..You can see which Wall St gurus got caught in this downturn..eh?

[Daytr]

Well its in the red at the moment, but only smalls so we will see.
I made a fair bit on my original shorts on the DOW over the last 6 months.

[arc]

Looking back at the 2008 crash, it was actually the mid-2006 to mid-2007 inflationary spike that started to collapse later part of 2007 and took all of 2008 to reach the bottom... scarey

[Bjauck]

Looking back at the 2008 crash, it was actually the mid-2006 to mid-2007 inflationary spike that started to collapse later part of 2007 and took all of 2008 to reach the bottom... scarey

Talking of inflationary spikes, compared with March 2007 the NZ capital index is about at the same level today, compared with an increase of 20% in the CPI inflation index. However, Auckland house prices are about 60% up.

[minimoke]

I understand what you are getting at--especially if you think this is just a storm in a tea cup--but if your 14% up ,you would not be locking in losses -you would be locking in profits--(if you are wrong about this correction)

Yes. locking in profits may make sense. But as I say my portfolio is in an upward trend. I have seen these "corrections" before and invariably the market recovers to a stronger position than before the correction. So by selling I do lock in profit less sales commission. As at today I am 3.3% down on my position last month. Knock off the sell commission and the re-entry buy commission I'm down around 4% - because if I want to lock in profits I should have sold last month.

One thing I don't have is a Profit Sell trigger, just a stop loss - so I'm inclined to let things run. I guess when i look at a 4% "loss" I just cant get excited about trying to outsmart a market with a reentry price. I have confidence my portfolio is fundamentally OK and it will bounce back.

Incidentally while I glance at individual prices on a near daily basis I only do a portfolio analysis on a monthly basis. And at the moment I have CEN, SPK and THL in a better position today than last month - so do I sell now? I guess I just cant be bothered sweating the swings and roundabouts. The portfolio trend is my friend. A couple of day glitch does not constitute a trend