Black Monday

[Mush]

Can anyone with a decent charting app indicate at what value NZX50 is stepping out of its start of 2012 bull price channel? Looks to be about 6800 odd, which could be taken out today with another drop like yesterday... at that point I would assume technicals are looking pretty weak with a major trend reversal possible... its got to happen some time!

Or am I just making stuff up?


(Ignore this, just noticed people have been talking about it on the other NZX50 thread, duh)

Here is a 5Y chart with the trend channel from 2011 and the 2016 channel. Looks like the target could be somewhere between 6,300-6,500. Risk off sentiment looks as though it will continue into December if not longer.

Attachment 8428

[workingdad]

Just remember the banks require 30 days notice now to break a TD before expiry of the term.

Thanks for that, have the ability to use a revolving credit facility for about half that amount so not too much of an issue. Interesting to see how it all settles post election.....

[bull....]

us hit the bottom of the trading range yesterday reversed today bearish im watching 17800 , 2070

still on maybe what ya reckon this week or next week bad if it happens back in that giant trading range 16000 - 18000 failed big break out oh my god it could get nasty

[TJP]

Holy hell, I knew when my intuition said "get the hell out" I should have cashed up. Still up but not out.... to complete JeremyALDs song..."free falling now I'm, free falling...."

[xafalcon]

Here is a 5Y chart with the trend channel from 2011 and the 2016 channel. Looks like the target could be somewhere between 6,300-6,500. Risk off sentiment looks as though it will continue into December if not longer.

Attachment 8428

I always suggest using NZX capital index, as dividends can mask transition points, amplify apparent uptrends and minimise apparent downtrends

[Mush]

I always suggest using NZX capital index, as dividends can mask transition points, amplify apparent uptrends and minimise apparent downtrends

I tend to disagree.

Attachment 8434

[xafalcon]

Increase the granularity significantly ie. the past 6-9 months

I am not talking chalk & cheese differences, they are subtle. But at a transition point IMO the capital index gives a clearer picture

Looking at your graph, it appears that you can already see the magnitude of the recent NZX capital index fall appears greater than NZX50 decline (my reason #3)

You should also find the capital index peak occurred earlier than NZX50 peak (my reason #1), and was lower (my reason #2)

Go back a couple of pages in this tread and read the posts BaaBaa and myself

But everyone has a different preference when analysing data, so if you prefer using NZX50 data, go right ahead.

[Mush]

My point is that it's irrelevant what data you use, the differences are immaterial and do not provide a different conclusion to the current situation.

In actual fact, both charts show September 7th as peak for both NZCI and NZX50 so I'd be double checking the data.

Regardless, both indicate solid formation of downtrends. Which, IMO is set to continue given the global risk-off environment we are in.

[stevevai1983]

I took big hit recently
my holdings:
SKC: bang!
TIL: bang!
SUM: bang!
SCL: not bad

However during this on-going correction some stocks are finally close to "realistic" price.
I am interested in RYM IFT EBO FRE CNU... if they drop more i will deploy new long term capital

[BlackPeter]

I took big hit recently
my holdings:
SKC: bang!
TIL: bang!
SUM: bang!
SCL: not bad

However during this on-going correction some stocks are finally close to "realistic" price.
I am interested in RYM IFT EBO FRE CNU... if they drop more i will deploy new long term capital

Should have sold, when the charts told you to ...

Anyway, depending on your risk appetite it might be sensible to wait until we know the outcome of the US election before deploying new capital. Sure - if Hillary wins, than a good time to buy might be now, but what if Trump wins?