Black Monday

[skid]

A "hung" electoral college would be the worst scenario. Either from Ed Mullins winning Utah and holding the balance of power or some Republican "electors" refusing to support Trump following a future scandal, either scenario could plunge the US and markets into chaos for months.

My money is on Hillary sneaking home but without a mandate and house/senate to get much done. A recipe for further paralysis but not chaos.

Yes,the Senate has certainly become a much closer race than before.

[skid]

I'm picking this coming Monday to be black Monday. Markets are nervous due to uncertainty about the US election. I reckon more negative news about Hillary Clinton will emerge this weekend which will be the trigger for the selloff monday.

Just my 2c :-)

Its gone from Democracy(kind of) to..whose the best at corrupting democracy (at at least influencing it)

[Lewylewylewy]

Imagine being Donald Drumpf and seeing share markets collapse at the fear that he may be in charge of things

[bohemian]

If he was aware of that I would feel more confident, but I don't think he would. What we can be sure of is that Putin would be comfortable with a useful idiot in the White house.

[BlackPeter]

If he was aware of that I would feel more confident, but I don't think he would. What we can be sure of is that Putin would be comfortable with a useful idiot in the White house.

Just wonder what Dumb will do if he doesn't win ... no way for him than to re-pay Putin, and I hear the Russians are pretty rough if you owe them.

Would love to see this crook disappearing in Siberia ...

[bohemian]

I bet he loves being called The Don. Maybe he might wake up with a horses head, not sure what the Russians are into, can't be nice though.

[xafalcon]

The US election is certainly a market mover right now. But IMO the more significant medium term driver of the NZX is the potential for foreign investors to cash up their NZX holding. Foreign NZX holdings have increased from 25% to 50% over the past few years. This is huge. If a significant portion of this recent increase in foreign holding is liquidated, it could be a significant cause for market weakness. A big sharp drop if they all run for the door at once, or a prolonged downtrend if foreign holdings are sold on rallies. But if foreign investors continue to see value in the NZX and don't cash up their investments, the US election will quickly become an historical effect, just like the Brexit vote. And "normal programming will resume shortly"

[bull....]

Big week this week, possible market crash under the right scenario - dow fallen back into 2yr sideways channel with the bottom at 15370. normally a failed breakout retests the lows of the channel? normally


21/8/2015 17568-15370, 2 weeks, 2198 , 12.5%
8/1/2016 17405-15370. 3 weeks, 2035 , 11.7%
now 17888 - 15370 , 2-3 weeks, 2518, 14.07% ???????

very dangerous period we are entering

[skid]

If he was aware of that I would feel more confident, but I don't think he would. What we can be sure of is that Putin would be comfortable with a useful idiot in the White house.

And Ironically ,that would suit ISIS as well (It plays right in to their strategy of separating all Muslims from rest of humanity) They would like nothing better than for the vast majority of peaceful Islamist's to get such a hard time that they all come over to ISIS in frustration.--

[fungus pudding]

For me the question is - If you had a knock-out punch story re Trump when would you release it?

My guess is that if you had such a story and were either looking to maximize the revenue from selling it or the political impact of releasing it, you probably would have done so already. To me this indicates there won't be a knock-out punch story. One, or several stories about someone Trump screwed over in his past - yea there's a good chance around that.

Knock out punches have an immediate effect - then fade. To be most effective the later the better, so don't be surprised if something comes out on Monday. (NZ Tuesday)