Black Monday

[skid]

The US election is certainly a market mover right now. But IMO the more significant medium term driver of the NZX is the potential for foreign investors to cash up their NZX holding. Foreign NZX holdings have increased from 25% to 50% over the past few years. This is huge. If a significant portion of this recent increase in foreign holding is liquidated, it could be a significant cause for market weakness. A big sharp drop if they all run for the door at once, or a prolonged downtrend if foreign holdings are sold on rallies. But if foreign investors continue to see value in the NZX and don't cash up their investments, the US election will quickly become an historical effect, just like the Brexit vote. And "normal programming will resume shortly"

A pretty dangerous situation--If things do go pear shaped,places like NZX would be the first to go as investors look for safety

Some say the $US.would take a hit because of ''trust' issues,but when markets tank,normally investors run to the reserve currency--interesting quandary---Gold?

Of course if Hillary wins,its more a matter of how much the markets will gain.(unless trump manages to create a mess with his stubborness in terms of conceeding) Its very hard to imagine him humble---....and then.. with the Fed decision looming ,there are more potential pitfalls

So far the market have always managed to shake off whatever comes up--until they dont

[bull....]

A pretty dangerous situation--If things do go pear shaped,places like NZX would be the first to go as investors look for safety

maybe before I don't think so at the moment , nzx is not flavour of the mth at the moment and still could fall another 1000pts to the bottom of its uptrend

[winner69]

Have we climbed the 'wall of worry' yet ....or are we on the 'slope of hope' at the moment

[Beagle]

A few weeks ago I made the call privately by e.mail to a couple of good mates that I felt strongly that the market felt like it wanted to have a good old fashioned 10-15% correction. I have been over 70% cash for a few weeks now and I'm in no hurry whatsoever to reinvest !

With one or two exceptions it is very ugly out there and there's real sustained momentum to the downside.

As I posted last week, I seriously wonder if 6500 is on the cards for the NZX, that would amount to a 14% correction at the thick end of my expected range but with the amount of momentum and the fact that overseas shareholders hold about 50% by value of the NZX and with the RBNZ widely expected to lower the OCR next month its certainly understandable why overseas investors are worried about a declining Kiwi ! They appear to be shooting first with the sell button and asking questions later which is basically what I've been doing too. Why bother pushing back against a rolling train ?

In my view capital preservation is the name of the game right at the minute.

This from 26 October. My 10-15% predicted correction has come to pass and we're now down 11.3% from the peak on Sept 7th. I still think 6500 over the next 3 days is a possibility. Went to 80% cash since the above post.

The real question is what to buy quickly on happy Thursday if Hillary wins ?...worthy of a thread all of its own I reckon.

[bull....]

This from 26 October. My 10-15% predicted correction has come to pass and we're now down 11.3% from the peak on Sept 7th. I still think 6500 over the next 3 days is a possibility. Went to 80% cash since the above post.

The real question is what to buy quickly on happy Thursday if Hillary wins ?...worthy of a thread all of its own I reckon.

isn't it only worth buying on Thursday if you think the markets will keep going up? a 2% jump on Thursday could just as easily be followed by a 3% fall on Friday when people relise Clinton win is still not that good

[bohemian]

FBI has just said emails are clear. I would be interested in stocks to buy with a more probable Clinton win.

[skid]

isn't it only worth buying on Thursday if you think the markets will keep going up? a 2% jump on Thursday could just as easily be followed by a 3% fall on Friday when people relise Clinton win is still not that good

and if the Fed does indeed raise the rate,youd have to get your profit before then (or even when the market reacts to the news that its probably going to happen---Seems like a more dangerous than average, time to be investing.---It may well be a ''money saved'' type Christmas ,rather than a ''money made'' one--- but then again,trying to predict the herd mentality is not an easy task--It certainly has no respect for logic many times--(just look at the States)

[Baa_Baa]

This from 26 October. My 10-15% predicted correction has come to pass and we're now down 11.3% from the peak on Sept 7th. I still think 6500 over the next 3 days is a possibility. Went to 80% cash since the above post.

The real question is what to buy quickly on happy Thursday if Hillary wins ?...worthy of a thread all of its own I reckon.

That's already an:

18% retrace of the whole up trend 2009 low to Sept high.
21% retrace of the steep up trend 2012 low to Sept high.

Trump wins, FUD reigns, markets tank.
Clinton wins, relief rally then Fed raises rates, markets tank.

Am also pretty much fully out now.

[mondograss]

Not sure about this whole "markets will tank when the Fed raises rates" theory. I mean it's not as if anyone will be pursuing those higher rates from a yield perspective, nor should a (very) gradual return to some sort of normality cause that much instability. Sure there'll be jitters but I'm not buying the wholesale crash perspective.

[Hoop]

Powers of the President of the United States

Hmmm... scary stuff

Powers of the United States Congress