Black Monday

[kiora]

Something else to worry about that a friend sent me.Chinese devaluation could also cause the mkts to plunge.This excerpt from"TTMYGH"

Chinese Capital Outflows Send FX Reserves To Lowest Since 2011


Overnight, China reported that the PBOC’s FX reserves fell another US$46bn to US$3.121 trillion in October as the central banks struggled to offset the impact of accelerating capital outflows, a bigger drop than the consensus estimate of US$34bn, triple the official September decline of US$19bn (recall that according to Goldman, the true FX outflow in recent months has been far greater

), and the biggest drop since January. The October decline brought China's total reserves the lowest amount since 2011.

As we have shown previously, a separate dataset called "PBOC's FX position", which shows the amount of PBOC's FX assets at book value and is usually released around the middle of the month, should provide a cross-check on PBOC's FX sales net of valuation effects.
As Bloomberg notes, the data come amid a period of renewed weakness for China’s currency. The yuan fell 1.53 percent last month, the most since a devaluation in August last year that shook investor confidence and ignited global market turmoil. Policy makers were suspected of propping up the exchange rate in the weeks leading up to a Group of 20 meeting in September and before the yuan’s entry into the International Monetary Fund’s reserves on Oct. 1 - and then reducing support after exports plunged the most in seven months. The currency fell to a six-year low of 6.7856 a dollar on Oct. 28.
The chart below which correlated China's outflows with the value of the Yuan suggests that either the currency is temporarily undervalued, or that the real amount of Chinese reserves, which may be unreported by the PBOC to prevent an even greater retail outflow scramble, may be as much as half a trillion dollars less than what has been officially reported.

And with Chinese capital outflows speculated as soon becoming the biggest risk factor to global financial stability, in a repeat of late 2015, once the chaos surrounding the US presidential election is over, below are some economist reactions to the reported number:

• “The yuan was sprinting all the way to approach 6.8 in October, which may have prompted the PBOC to sell some reserves to stabilize the market," said Gao Qi, a Singapore-based foreign-exchange strategist at Scotiabank. "Capital outflows will continue, the only questions is how fast, and that depends on the dollar’s move."
• "Capital outflow pressures will be sustained at least for the coming months," said Frederik Kunze, chief China economist at Norddeutsche Landesbank in Hanover, Germany. "Growing anxiety with regard to the soundness of the Chinese financial markets and the fear of a property bubble have to be seen in this context."
• "The number indicates relatively light intervention by PBOC during the month," said Ding Shuang, head of Greater China economic research at Standard Chartered Plc. in Hong Kong. Most of the drop comes from valuation effects, he said.
• Faster yuan depreciation against the dollar, higher interbank interest rates, and PBOC liquidity injections via open market operations "pointed to continued capital outflows in October," said Robin Xing, an economist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong.

Should Clinton win tomorrow, and push the USD even higher on expectations of a December Fed rate hike, many strategists believe that the next stop for the Yuan will be to drop to a level somewhere in the vicinity of USDCNY 7.00.

But where is the money going JT?
Into overseas equities /real estate?It may have the opposite effect until it needs to be repatriated then markets tank.
All part of Chinese planning.

[arc]

But where is the money going JT?
Into overseas equities /real estate?It may have the opposite effect until it needs to be repatriated then markets tank.
All part of Chinese planning.

Personally I have been looking over the patterns emerging from Chinese investments worldwide. I dont think there is any worry about the money being placed as part of a pump-n-dump scheme. You are talking Trillions of dollar-equivalents, spread across a wide range of sectors from A-agriculture to Z-zoology... im not kidding. The Chinese are gaining knowledge and strength in international arenas. The patterns point strongly the acquisition of knowledge as the prime driver in most cases. Yes there is a drive to acquire hardware/resources/land etc but it is all wrapped up in a much bigger picture.

[Bobdn]

Markets definitely pricing in a Trump victory now. Overall, through investment in oil stocks, I should do ok out of this.

[bull....]

Big week this week, possible market crash under the right scenario - dow fallen back into 2yr sideways channel with the bottom at 15370. normally a failed breakout retests the lows of the channel? normally


21/8/2015 17568-15370, 2 weeks, 2198 , 12.5%
8/1/2016 17405-15370. 3 weeks, 2035 , 11.7%
now 17888 - 15370 , 2-3 weeks, 2518, 14.07% ???????

very dangerous period we are entering

watch that level

[pak]

Selling hard into the close. TRUMP could actually win!

[arc]

Selling hard into the close. TRUMP could actually win!

The Lemmings are coming out to play... bring it on

[arc]

Almost time to start putting buckets out to catch those lemmings on the way down.


Crowd psychology and the Herd instinct are powerful forces when driven by million's of people.

[skid]

NZX down 3.5%

[GR8DAY]

Dont panic folks..........trump the chump is not going to win!!

[Yoda]

Well just in case , I ve cashed up... Insurance policy payment .