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10-11-2016, 12:04 PM
#3061
Great post, hoop - though scary. Where will most of us be for this cycle to move back towards globalisation if it takes several decades for half a revolution?
But I think you have a very valid point (though you could argue that the cycle might speed up given today's better means of communication) ... and so we probably better adapt.
What stocks fare better under a protectionist system?
Is it time to move more funds overseas?
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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10-11-2016, 12:31 PM
#3062
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Great post, hoop - though scary. Where will most of us be for this cycle to move back towards globalisation if it takes several decades for half a revolution?
But I think you have a very valid point (though you could argue that the cycle might speed up given today's better means of communication) ... and so we probably better adapt.
What stocks fare better under a protectionist system?
Is it time to move more funds overseas?
An Answer:...Looking back in history.. NZ (as did many other small Countries) seemed to fair better with free trade...NZ relies heavily on export trade as we are a commodity producing nation..our population isn't big enough together with a lack of self sufficiency in energy resources to survive entirely on a domestic driven economy..Remember under the last Protective area (Muldoon) they tried to solve that self-sufficiency problem in energy (Think-Big)...It ended in disaster...
So yeah..overseas investing looks better...bigger is better ..eh.....I guess there will be some NZ companies that will do well..such as supplying to local needs
Last edited by Hoop; 10-11-2016 at 12:41 PM.
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10-11-2016, 02:28 PM
#3063
Originally Posted by Hoop
An Answer:...Looking back in history.. NZ (as did many other small Countries) seemed to fair better with free trade...NZ relies heavily on export trade as we are a commodity producing nation..our population isn't big enough together with a lack of self sufficiency in energy resources to survive entirely on a domestic driven economy..Remember under the last Protective area (Muldoon) they tried to solve that self-sufficiency problem in energy (Think-Big)...It ended in disaster...
So yeah..overseas investing looks better...bigger is better ..eh.....I guess there will be some NZ companies that will do well..such as supplying to local needs
That does not sound like it will bode well for PEB(if they ever get their act together) or even ATM,BLT ,etc
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10-11-2016, 02:38 PM
#3064
XRO and Orion Software OHE are very exposed to American intervention... and Trumps "If it aint built in America we dont want it".
Last edited by arc; 10-11-2016 at 02:43 PM.
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10-11-2016, 02:50 PM
#3065
82% of my portfolio total is made up of Air and Spk and I'm happy with that choice looking ahead, both big divvy payers and great NZ companies.
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10-11-2016, 03:08 PM
#3066
Originally Posted by couta1
82% of my portfolio total is made up of Air and Spk and I'm happy with that choice looking ahead, both big divvy payers and great NZ companies.
Have to maintain perspective, move with the times and have a Plan B though:
SPK is the retail remains from Telecom, largely owned by offshore investors, which longterm shareholders experienced one of the greatest wealth destructions in NZ market history aka Gattung, currently trading now around a 1/3 of its all time high. Probably never get back to the $9's
AIR is clearly cyclical up from .80's in 2012 and prior to that experienced traumatic events like Erebus and barely avoided bankruptcy by NZ Govt bailout, SP went to .20's, not sure if they paid a dividend through that mess.
These two have a history of periodically destroying capital.
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10-11-2016, 03:12 PM
#3067
Originally Posted by skid
That does not sound like it will bode well for PEB(if they ever get their act together) or even ATM,BLT ,etc
ATM doesn't count in the above comment. ATM is going to be made in America, as it is in Australia,NZ and the UK.Correct me if I'm wrong.
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10-11-2016, 03:15 PM
#3068
Originally Posted by Baa_Baa
Have to maintain perspective, move with the times and have a Plan B though:
SPK is the retail remains from Telecom, largely owned by offshore investors, which longterm shareholders experienced one of the greatest wealth destructions in NZ market history aka Gattung, currently trading now around a 1/3 of its all time high. Probably never get back to the $9's
AIR is clearly cyclical up from .80's in 2012 and prior to that experienced traumatic events like Erebus and barely avoided bankruptcy by NZ Govt bailout, SP went to .20's, not sure if they paid a dividend through that mess.
These two have a history of periodically destroying capital.
Fair enough, but unknown disasters aside I would argue that both these companies have moved on from the issues you have mentioned and have/are evolving into better companies, both will play an important role in our economy going forward.
Last edited by couta1; 10-11-2016 at 03:17 PM.
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10-11-2016, 03:26 PM
#3069
As a result of Trump investment in a 'safe' economy as NZ could increase substantially.
USA immigration enquiries increase by 56,000 in the 24 hrs before 9am today, 24x's more than usual.
Read this; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...hock-trump-win
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10-11-2016, 03:52 PM
#3070
Originally Posted by see weed
ATM doesn't count in the above comment. ATM is going to be made in America, as it is in Australia,NZ and the UK .Correct me if I'm wrong.
China?....
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