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Thread: Black Monday

  1. #3061
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Great post, hoop - though scary. Where will most of us be for this cycle to move back towards globalisation if it takes several decades for half a revolution?

    But I think you have a very valid point (though you could argue that the cycle might speed up given today's better means of communication) ... and so we probably better adapt.

    What stocks fare better under a protectionist system?

    Is it time to move more funds overseas?
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  2. #3062
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Great post, hoop - though scary. Where will most of us be for this cycle to move back towards globalisation if it takes several decades for half a revolution?

    But I think you have a very valid point (though you could argue that the cycle might speed up given today's better means of communication) ... and so we probably better adapt.

    What stocks fare better under a protectionist system?

    Is it time to move more funds overseas?
    An Answer:...Looking back in history.. NZ (as did many other small Countries) seemed to fair better with free trade...NZ relies heavily on export trade as we are a commodity producing nation..our population isn't big enough together with a lack of self sufficiency in energy resources to survive entirely on a domestic driven economy..Remember under the last Protective area (Muldoon) they tried to solve that self-sufficiency problem in energy (Think-Big)...It ended in disaster...

    So yeah..overseas investing looks better...bigger is better ..eh.....I guess there will be some NZ companies that will do well..such as supplying to local needs
    Last edited by Hoop; 10-11-2016 at 12:41 PM.

  3. #3063
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    An Answer:...Looking back in history.. NZ (as did many other small Countries) seemed to fair better with free trade...NZ relies heavily on export trade as we are a commodity producing nation..our population isn't big enough together with a lack of self sufficiency in energy resources to survive entirely on a domestic driven economy..Remember under the last Protective area (Muldoon) they tried to solve that self-sufficiency problem in energy (Think-Big)...It ended in disaster...

    So yeah..overseas investing looks better...bigger is better ..eh.....I guess there will be some NZ companies that will do well..such as supplying to local needs
    That does not sound like it will bode well for PEB(if they ever get their act together) or even ATM,BLT ,etc

  4. #3064
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    XRO and Orion Software OHE are very exposed to American intervention... and Trumps "If it aint built in America we dont want it".
    Last edited by arc; 10-11-2016 at 02:43 PM.

  5. #3065
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    82% of my portfolio total is made up of Air and Spk and I'm happy with that choice looking ahead, both big divvy payers and great NZ companies.

  6. #3066
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    82% of my portfolio total is made up of Air and Spk and I'm happy with that choice looking ahead, both big divvy payers and great NZ companies.
    Have to maintain perspective, move with the times and have a Plan B though:

    SPK is the retail remains from Telecom, largely owned by offshore investors, which longterm shareholders experienced one of the greatest wealth destructions in NZ market history aka Gattung, currently trading now around a 1/3 of its all time high. Probably never get back to the $9's

    AIR is clearly cyclical up from .80's in 2012 and prior to that experienced traumatic events like Erebus and barely avoided bankruptcy by NZ Govt bailout, SP went to .20's, not sure if they paid a dividend through that mess.

    These two have a history of periodically destroying capital.

  7. #3067
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    Quote Originally Posted by skid View Post
    That does not sound like it will bode well for PEB(if they ever get their act together) or even ATM,BLT ,etc
    ATM doesn't count in the above comment. ATM is going to be made in America, as it is in Australia,NZ and the UK.Correct me if I'm wrong.

  8. #3068
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    Have to maintain perspective, move with the times and have a Plan B though:

    SPK is the retail remains from Telecom, largely owned by offshore investors, which longterm shareholders experienced one of the greatest wealth destructions in NZ market history aka Gattung, currently trading now around a 1/3 of its all time high. Probably never get back to the $9's

    AIR is clearly cyclical up from .80's in 2012 and prior to that experienced traumatic events like Erebus and barely avoided bankruptcy by NZ Govt bailout, SP went to .20's, not sure if they paid a dividend through that mess.

    These two have a history of periodically destroying capital.
    Fair enough, but unknown disasters aside I would argue that both these companies have moved on from the issues you have mentioned and have/are evolving into better companies, both will play an important role in our economy going forward.
    Last edited by couta1; 10-11-2016 at 03:17 PM.

  9. #3069
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    As a result of Trump investment in a 'safe' economy as NZ could increase substantially.

    USA immigration enquiries increase by 56,000 in the 24 hrs before 9am today, 24x's more than usual.

    Read this; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...hock-trump-win

  10. #3070
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    Quote Originally Posted by see weed View Post
    ATM doesn't count in the above comment. ATM is going to be made in America, as it is in Australia,NZ and the UK.Correct me if I'm wrong.
    China?....

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