Black Monday

[Baa_Baa]

Friday 20th January is Trumps' inauguration day, which is our Saturday so our market won't know which way it might go prior to close. Let's hope that the topping process (indecision) in the DOW and other US bourses recently isn't accompanied by some god awful acceptance speech which reverses or undermines the sentiment relying on his massive election promises of investment in the USA. It could be a black Monday here if that happens. Eyes on and fingers on the trigger.

[peat]

It could be a black Monday here if that happens. Eyes on and fingers on the trigger.

just buy the Vix?

I am quite sure DT is long the Vix. Bigly long. Uge

The clip from SNL with Baldwin doing an impersonation is fantastic.

[RGR367]

Friday 20th January is Trumps' inauguration day, which is our Saturday so our market won't know which way it might go prior to close. Let's hope that the topping process (indecision) in the DOW and other US bourses recently isn't accompanied by some god awful acceptance speech which reverses or undermines the sentiment relying on his massive election promises of investment in the USA. It could be a black Monday here if that happens. Eyes on and fingers on the trigger.

Gut feel says DOW is on a downhill after his inauguration. Though not completely black Monday yet for us, it will turn darker come mid of the week. Such is the power of trumping

[Lewylewylewy]

I've changed m my outlook for the year. With brexit pushing the pound down, and Trumps import taxes, who is NZ going to export to?

I'm selling out of some of my portfolio to get ready for the bargains to come. Keeping some cash in shares

[janner]

I've changed m my outlook for the year. With brexit pushing the pound down, and Trumps import taxes, who is NZ going to export to?

I'm selling out of some of my portfolio to get ready for the bargains to come. Keeping some cash in shares

America is in the high 50's position as far as trade with NZ is concerned. Our beef is usually Hamburger meat. So the lowly paid will still be eating it. Lamb is high quality and the rich will not stop eating.

America's possible trade war with China is more of a concern to us IMO. Even then a great deal of our exports to China are off season produce to high end customers and such goods as Quality baby formula will always be wanted.

[bull....]

last 5 days people rotating back to some of the worst performers after trump won.

Security Name	Close	5 Day
BRAZIL	63783.21	8.9338
GOLD	1202	5.9031
NEW ZEALAND	7074.94	4.6552
LONDON	7327.13	4.4995
AUSTRALIA	5748.4	3.8949
TLT	121.31	3.2426
HANG SENG	22718.15	3.167
INDIA	27288	3.0163
Nasdaq	5574.12	2.3808
Dow Utilities	657	1.7028
EEM	36.68	1.41
CRB	194.53	1.3335
OIL	52.64	1.3282
GERMANY	11554.71	1.3215
FRANCE	4882.18	1.0119
HYG	87.32	0.9597
S&P 500	2274.64	0.6687
Dow Indust	19885	0.653
CHINA	3103	-0.6086
Russel	1372.05	-1.1541
JAPAN	19095.24	-1.5768
Dow Transports	9202	-2.1792

[Lewylewylewy]

Hmmm maybe it won't be so bad. UK may recover if trade agreements are good, and Trump may fail to execute his desires.

Though I think any whomping of any big industry in NZ would be significant.

Probably is not as bad as I first thought.

Interesting that Theresa May has corrected her tone on the events to come. Maybe she's learning that you have to be careful how you present things.

[skid]

Hmmm maybe it won't be so bad. UK may recover if trade agreements are good, and Trump may fail to execute his desires.

Though I think any whomping of any big industry in NZ would be significant.

Probably is not as bad as I first thought.

Interesting that Theresa May has corrected her tone on the events to come. Maybe she's learning that you have to be careful how you present things.

I think that trade agreement is a little sweetner for Brexit--(still think that the best way to get a handle on trumps trade scenario is to see what benefits him ,personally.)

[Lewylewylewy]

I think that trade agreement is a little sweetner for Brexit--(still think that the best way to get a handle on trumps trade scenario is to see what benefits him ,personally.)

UK:
I thought the trade agreements were a case of trying to set up agreements with countries so they don't lose out when they leave the EU, which has it's own trade agreements they won't have access to anymore. Ways in which I see the UK losing on Brexit is loss of trade agreements (restriction on purchasing = less resources for businesses relying on external sources and disruption. Restrictions on exporting = business closures). This means less jobs in the UK (which might be ok if the immigrants are forced to leave, which they won't) and inflation and unavailability of some goods. Could be ugly if trade agreement negotiations don't go well.

US:
So far, to my knowledge, the main thing Trump's been doing is using his position to negotiate building permits with foreign powers that previously denied him. I'd say it's pretty difficult to align your interests with his financially.

He does however, seem to have a bee in his bonnet about several political & economic issues that I think he's driving from a personal (egocentric) perspective - what he thinks America needs to do to improve. Mainly these are poorly planned and tactlessly executed ideas that he hasn't researched or fully thought out. How much conviction / ability he will have executing these is another matter. If you can work that out, you can predict what will happen and make your money buying on the dips.

I think that NZ is looking at a recession in the next few years, or if there's no recession we will trundle along nicely. I have no idea which will occur, but I do believe that the biggest thing keeping us going is the influx of immigrants and house price inflation. Each bringing more money to families by inflation and more money in the country. Not a great way to run an economy, but a hard one to get out of (not blaming anyone for this situation, politically - just stating the way I see things).

[skid]

UK:
I thought the trade agreements were a case of trying to set up agreements with countries so they don't lose out when they leave the EU, which has it's own trade agreements they won't have access to anymore. Ways in which I see the UK losing on Brexit is loss of trade agreements (restriction on purchasing = less resources for businesses relying on external sources and disruption. Restrictions on exporting = business closures). This means less jobs in the UK (which might be ok if the immigrants are forced to leave, which they won't) and inflation and unavailability of some goods. Could be ugly if trade agreement negotiations don't go well.

US:
So far, to my knowledge, the main thing Trump's been doing is using his position to negotiate building permits with foreign powers that previously denied him. I'd say it's pretty difficult to align your interests with his financially.

He does however, seem to have a bee in his bonnet about several political & economic issues that I think he's driving from a personal (egocentric) perspective - what he thinks America needs to do to improve. Mainly these are poorly planned and tactlessly executed ideas that he hasn't researched or fully thought out. How much conviction / ability he will have executing these is another matter. If you can work that out, you can predict what will happen and make your money buying on the dips.

I think that NZ is looking at a recession in the next few years, or if there's no recession we will trundle along nicely. I have no idea which will occur, but I do believe that the biggest thing keeping us going is the influx of immigrants and house price inflation. Each bringing more money to families by inflation and more money in the country. Not a great way to run an economy, but a hard one to get out of (not blaming anyone for this situation, politically - just stating the way I see things).

I believe Trump is more or less coming to the UKs rescue because he likes Brexit (which was what I was alluding to and ties in with your first point)