Black Monday

[Bjauck]

I believe Trump is more or less coming to the UKs rescue because he likes Brexit (which was what I was alluding to and ties in with your first point)

Will the UK actually exist for much longer - Scotland hates Brexit and Trump in equal measure! Also Brexit UK may need free trade more than Trump, who seems not to be overly keen on it.

[Bjauck]

...

I think that NZ is looking at a recession in the next few years, or if there's no recession we will trundle along nicely. I have no idea which will occur, but I do believe that the biggest thing keeping us going is the influx of immigrants and house price inflation. Each bringing more money to families by inflation and more money in the country. Not a great way to run an economy, but a hard one to get out of (not blaming anyone for this situation, politically - just stating the way I see things).

The government won't have to worry about getting out of it. It is a question of when house prices stop rising. Interest rates, supply issues, robust wages and foreign demand have provided a perfect storm.

The UK out of the EU will be an easier country to do trade deals with....just the one set of interests rather than all the competing interests in a cartel of many nations. Of course it won't be as desirable a business destination without its current access to the EU market.

[xafalcon]

I think that NZ is looking at a recession in the next few years, or if there's no recession we will trundle along nicely. I have no idea which will occur, but I do believe that the biggest thing keeping us going is the influx of immigrants and house price inflation. Each bringing more money to families by inflation and more money in the country. Not a great way to run an economy, but a hard one to get out of (not blaming anyone for this situation, politically - just stating the way I see things).

I read the NZ economic pulse differently.

The consensus is that the world economy is improving = more discretionary spending money = more tourism income for NZ (our largest export earner, a hugely significant employer and source of plenty of extra GST)

Dairy trade pricing is returning to long term averages (our second largest export earner) = greater income for farmers = expansion for support services & industries

Immigration continuing at elevated levels for some time yet = more people = more demand for housing & services (another significant source of employment)

Reducing unemployment = more tax take & corresponding reduction in welfare expenditure = more infrastructure spend (another significant source of employment) & reducing personal taxation

Wheeler's time at the RB coming to an end = less hawkish replacement likely = higher growth through lower interest rates (than they would be under current RB governor)

Improving NZ economy = likely credit rating upgrade to AAA = lower cost of borrowing

Even external shocks could be managed better by NZ than most other economies since our deficit is so much smaller than many other countries and our monetary policy settings have room to move downwards

All the signs I see are pointing to onwards and upwards for NZ inc

[Lewylewylewy]

All things remaining the same, I agree... It's the change I'm concerned about. Lots of potential changes in the coming few years.

Addendum: Really? Graeme Wheelers time is coming to an end? 😞 I thought he did a good job.

[couta1]

There will be no Black Monday this coming week, that's been Trumped, its onwards and upwards as we head into reporting season.

[janner]

There will be no Black Monday this coming week, that's been Trumped, its onwards and upwards as we head into reporting season.

Agree :-)))))

Onward and upward.. :-))))))))))))))

[janner]

How refreshing..

Few really know what is coming... :-))))

[winner69]

All things remaining the same, I agree... It's the change I'm concerned about. Lots of potential changes in the coming few years.

Addendum: Really? Graeme Wheelers time is coming to an end? 😞 I thought he did a good job.

Wheeler was shocker

His legacy will be a bust part of the boom/bust cycle he has created.

2018/2019 might not be pretty

[Bjauck]

Wheeler was shocker

His legacy will be a bust part of the boom/bust cycle he has created.

2018/2019 might not be pretty

Was Wheeler stuck between a rock and a hard place? Interest rates up=stifling business:rates down and inflating residential housing price bubble. So LVR up:reduce demand but shut out first home owners without rich families.

Where was Key and the government?

[JeremyALD]

There will be no Black Monday this coming week, that's been Trumped, its onwards and upwards as we head into reporting season.

Agree Couta not sure why some are worried.