Black Monday

[winner69]

.......but he made unnecessary cuts to the OCR when the economy was pinging along nicely.

Too much focus on the NZD

His legacy will be the big bust in 2018/2019

Wheeler got a problem now with CPI higher than expected

Probably do his usual thing and not believe it - it can't be so - and keep OCR at current levels for a while yet

His legacy will be the pain in 2018/2019

[bull....]

what a nice week definitely a black Monday for the bears who used to lurk on this thread. anyway top of the long term channel I have is 21000 at this time. im sure trump will get us there just need a few good tweets

[skid]

trump good for markets a , anyway same strategy from 08 still working that is buy every dip hahha till it stops working a lol same nz

Exactly--they say market is overbough so cull the bad stuff and buy good stuff on the dips--so Im assuming it will take more than an initial dip or Trump doing something a bit shocking to change the mindset (later causing the former?)

[winner69]

Totally irrelevant but I find this chart interesting

[RupertBear]

Totally irrelevant but I find this chart interesting

Not sure its irrelevant at all winner

[Hoop]

Totally irrelevant but I find this chart interesting

Not totally irrelevent Winner...I find the Market behaviour (group human behaviour) interesting...
Although your chart shows an extreme (hyperinflation currency destruction depression through to World War, it still shows to a lesser extent what a political paradigm shift to "drain the swamp" and fix a broken system can do to Markets..It seems to spark a bit of life into the markets which happens to be contrary to current thinking (or swamp dwellers thinking which at the time still influences the public's thinking)...
Note how long that cyclical bull market lasted...about 10 years...The bull looked to had died when Hitler's (and his party) image went from Economic Saviour to Egotistical Maniac but to the contary ..it took the markets another 2 to 3 years before "reality" hit home.....All to do with market sentiment and public euphoria..eh...A nice example that its never different this time...and...the market regaining it's sanity will take much longer than you think..

[blobbles]

Does anyone else see a double top coming for NZX?

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=...=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Lets admit it, we are ripe for a correction. I know double tops for individual stocks aren't a good look, does it also apply across the whole market? They do usually signal the end of a bull market...

[BlackPeter]

Does anyone else see a double top coming for NZX?

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=...=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Lets admit it, we are ripe for a correction. I know double tops for individual stocks aren't a good look, does it also apply across the whole market? They do usually signal the end of a bull market...

Sure - might end up either in a head and shoulders or in a double top - or it might just continue to rise.

Problem with these patterns is - you never know until they are completed ... so we can just be vigilant. At this stage I would not exclude any of the options - the Trump factor might well be good for another couple of years of rising stock prices (just refer to winners recent post re the German CDAX 1930 to 1950) ... however - whatever it is, any further rise will in my view only aggravate the inevitable downturn at the end ...

[Brain]

When I look at that chart I can see that we have passed through multiple occasions where a double top could have occurred. I think that double tops can only be recognised in hindsight after the damage has been done and the market has then taken such a negative view that the previous high is not going to be exceeded. I am sceptical about a lot of TA but particularly double tops.
Having said that I suppose the NZ sharemarket will now go into a long recession which would be good because then we can all pick up high yielding stocks. The share market is about sentiment (TA) but is underpinned by dividend yield (FA). I think FA is the best way to go and is good hence the expression "Sweet FA"

Brain

[Hoop]

When I look at that chart I can see that we have passed through multiple occasions where a double top could have occurred. I think that double tops can only be recognised in hindsight after the damage has been done and the market has then taken such a negative view that the previous high is not going to be exceeded. I am sceptical about a lot of TA but particularly double tops.
Having said that I suppose the NZ sharemarket will now go into a long recession which would be good because then we can all pick up high yielding stocks. The share market is about sentiment (TA) but is underpinned by dividend yield (FA). I think FA is the best way to go and is good hence the expression "Sweet FA"

Brain

As with all chart patterns once formed there is a degree of hindsight involved....A Chartist is well aware they will never get near the top nor get in near the bottom...Many investors fancies themselves at buying near the bottoms but in reality seldom do...so no difference..eh

Brain..FA and TA are investor tools..to get the best investment results both are at your disposal to use...I personally use FA to find a good quality stock then use TA to "time" (signal) my entries and sadly as it sometimes occurs an exit..

Brain..The good thing is, a double top pattern is formed and identified well before the damage (capitulation) occurs....

Most people without adequate knowledge about TA or how it works fail to understand what the discipline methodology is all about...The TA discipline tells you about the market participants (who are mostly fundamentally driven), who they are, and how they are feeling (sentiment) ..all this indicates their trading behaviour..Trading behaviour shows up as digital data which can displayed visually on charts, indicator bars, and the like, or more complexly via sophisticated computer programs..Once trading behaviour is digitalised a TAer can simulate all sorts of outcomes and possibilities, e.g forming statistical probabilities using history....It doesn't stop there as infinite amount of analysis can be done with digital..such as identifying very powerful variables affecting that Market such as primary Drivers secondary drivers tertiary drivers..For example astute very experienced (non TA) investors sub-consciously know when to exist certain industry sectors well before bad results are known because they sense (gut feel) the driving forces have changed...something which the "rest of us" have to number crunch to analyse/wait for updated results, and realise too late..

Statistical correlations is the name of the game..however the media only assumes (often incorrectly) and sadly it's readers believes and learns into its "false logic" and forward looking crystal balls....so TA can alert you (indicators diverging) to possible very logical looking malformation with a lot of followers (believers).

When a double top pattern has been formed (as with all patterns and events) a chartist can then apply statistical odds as to which way the market is likely to go. Remember there is still a chance the market can rise after a double top pattern has been formed but the odds are against you..See Bulkowski's site for the odds

Chart patterns is a form of TA because chartists usually use chart indicators to reinforce the trending movements of the price thereby attempt to more actually determine the statistical odds of a near future happening..

In other words..if you were an investor looking to gain 10% in an investment with 30% odds against losing 20% (25% to recuperate) with 70% odds..would you leave your money in.....No!!..because Investors use risk v reward..If you do stay invested (because the current results or fundamentally very good) you are still playing against the odds with poor reward.

Most FAers ride out the bumps and holes in the shareprice...or if a downtrend grabs hold decide they bunker down and blame irrationality..

TA Discipline assumes that the market knows something you don't...Getting caught in a bad downtrend, one faces an impossible stressful decision "Do I sell now and see the price recover?" or "hold on and suffer more misery as the fall continues?".....Strict TAers never face this decision...They have a lot of small losses but never big ones...hence the saying, "quit your losses early and let your profits run"

Chartists (using patterns) play the market using the "house" odds...I personally use charts and invest in shares with a 70% chance of winning (most good odds happen with a stocks in an already established uptrend)....if I invest at lower winning odds there has to be a higher reward to so....It pays to know about the Risk v Reward methodology, a discipline in its own right.