Black Monday

[RupertBear]

Thanks for your words of wisdom on this Hoop, much appreciated

[Brain]

Thanks Hoop for your explanation. I would be interested to know how many Buy and sell Signals you would see in the above graph.

[Lewylewylewy]

This is an interesting read: http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-me...aign-promises/

It's interesting that the article was from mid last year, and essentially says that Trump won't do any of the things he says he will. Trump has basically started hacking through that list at high speed.
Clearly laws aren't doing him (he sacks any public servant that gets in his way, most will be scared by the public beheading of the attorney general). Also the expedience of the implementation of his policies shows that no more research goes into his ideas before he pushes them through.
This guy is brash and brutal in the way he works. The next things on his list are squashing trade with Mexico and Ghina (presumably some big taxes going to happen there); reducing taxes for all in the US; and taking oil sites from ISIS.

The last one will be interesting, because it will depend where Trump thinks ISIS are located. Also where the oil is may depend on when this policy is implemented... If they create fiscal issues in the US by reducing tax and poorly implemented trade policies, they could do another Iraq.

Iraq: the twin towers were attacked (close eyes and point finger East) it was almost certainly, probably Sadam Hussein. We want blood. He must die.

I wouldn't be shocked if America started invading any middle Eastern countries with oil and just seizing the lot, then using that to fill the holes in the wallet lining.

Then again, he hasn't yet applied new import taxes... So maybe not everything is as easy for him to do? So much uncertainty and volatility.

[winner69]

Probably totally irrelevant but why we could see a S&P500 at 1,000

Stock Market and the Rule of Law
http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/01...e-rule-of-law/



Extracts -

The valuation of firms in any market also depends on the degree to which investors’ rights are protected. Because a firm’s share price reflects the cash flow per share that non-controlling shareholders expect to receive, this share price should fall if non-controlling shareholders expect expropriation by either corrupt officials or controlling shareholders. To the extent that official corruption and poor corporate governance distort the decision-making of the firm’s management, they also destroy shareholder value.

And ....


The United States stock market currently sells at a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 21.8 times (trailing 12 months) and a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) multiple of 26.4 times.

In comparison, the Russian stock market sells at a PE of 9.1 times and a CAPE of 5.9. It is the “cheapest” large stock market in the world. The reason for this discount is that these are shares of stock that trade in a dictatorship, wholly controlled by the whims of the Kremlin. CEOs can be jailed for operating or even speaking against those in power. Assets can be confiscated or reassigned at will. State control of corporate entities does not encourage investors to pay up for minority stakes in these businesses.

Similarly, China’s PE is 7.2 times – one third the valuation of US companies – and its CAPE is 12.8 – less than half that of the United States stock market. The country has been taking steps to liberalize its financial system and corporate environment, but these things happen very slowly. Bear in mind that official statistics put the growth rate of China’s economy at more than double that of the US. Again, governance issues and fear of political interference help the world’s second largest economy earn quite a discount for its stock valuations.

[BlackPeter]

Probably totally irrelevant but why we could see a S&P500 at 1,000

Stock Market and the Rule of Law
http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/01...e-rule-of-law/



Extracts -

The valuation of firms in any market also depends on the degree to which investors’ rights are protected. Because a firm’s share price reflects the cash flow per share that non-controlling shareholders expect to receive, this share price should fall if non-controlling shareholders expect expropriation by either corrupt officials or controlling shareholders. To the extent that official corruption and poor corporate governance distort the decision-making of the firm’s management, they also destroy shareholder value.

And ....


The United States stock market currently sells at a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 21.8 times (trailing 12 months) and a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) multiple of 26.4 times.

In comparison, the Russian stock market sells at a PE of 9.1 times and a CAPE of 5.9. It is the “cheapest” large stock market in the world. The reason for this discount is that these are shares of stock that trade in a dictatorship, wholly controlled by the whims of the Kremlin. CEOs can be jailed for operating or even speaking against those in power. Assets can be confiscated or reassigned at will. State control of corporate entities does not encourage investors to pay up for minority stakes in these businesses.

Similarly, China’s PE is 7.2 times – one third the valuation of US companies – and its CAPE is 12.8 – less than half that of the United States stock market. The country has been taking steps to liberalize its financial system and corporate environment, but these things happen very slowly. Bear in mind that official statistics put the growth rate of China’s economy at more than double that of the US. Again, governance issues and fear of political interference help the world’s second largest economy earn quite a discount for its stock valuations.

Might be quite relevant. Money is always trying to optimise the risk / reward ratio - and Trump is clearly increasing the risks. whether he is increasing the rewards as well is questionable, given that he seems to be highly incompetent to run anything - and certainly not a country.

I think particularly foreign owners of US shares should be concerned. Obviously - they don't fall under the "America first" policy - and who knows, maybe they soon can't access their US funds anymore? Its easy these days in the US to remove foreigners rights by one stroke of the idiots pen - ask the 4 star Iraqi general who was leading the US troops in Iraq - he is not anymore allowed to visit his family in the US.

[Raz]

Probably totally irrelevant but why we could see a S&P500 at 1,000

Stock Market and the Rule of Law
http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/01...e-rule-of-law/



Extracts -

The valuation of firms in any market also depends on the degree to which investors’ rights are protected. Because a firm’s share price reflects the cash flow per share that non-controlling shareholders expect to receive, this share price should fall if non-controlling shareholders expect expropriation by either corrupt officials or controlling shareholders. To the extent that official corruption and poor corporate governance distort the decision-making of the firm’s management, they also destroy shareholder value.

And ....


The United States stock market currently sells at a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 21.8 times (trailing 12 months) and a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) multiple of 26.4 times.

In comparison, the Russian stock market sells at a PE of 9.1 times and a CAPE of 5.9. It is the “cheapest” large stock market in the world. The reason for this discount is that these are shares of stock that trade in a dictatorship, wholly controlled by the whims of the Kremlin. CEOs can be jailed for operating or even speaking against those in power. Assets can be confiscated or reassigned at will. State control of corporate entities does not encourage investors to pay up for minority stakes in these businesses.

Similarly, China’s PE is 7.2 times – one third the valuation of US companies – and its CAPE is 12.8 – less than half that of the United States stock market. The country has been taking steps to liberalize its financial system and corporate environment, but these things happen very slowly. Bear in mind that official statistics put the growth rate of China’s economy at more than double that of the US. Again, governance issues and fear of political interference help the world’s second largest economy earn quite a discount for its stock valuations.

This is the unwritten reason i exited my US stock..especially all in my name. I think a discount will occur over time possibly set off with a partial flow of Sovereign funds out of the US. I now only hold US investment in a US legal structure with other US residents..

[bull....]

nice day on the us markets after a brief dip

[skid]

nice day on the us markets after a brief dip

Only causualty--the Dodd Frank law (the one thats suppose to help protect us from the next GFC)

[BlackPeter]

Only causualty--the Dodd Frank law (the one thats suppose to help protect us from the next GFC)

True - noticed that as well. He just has to give his billionaire friends at wall street some gifts.

Unless the senate discovers that they have some spine (and I doubt that) - lets be prepared for an outrageous continuation of the current bull run, ended by a deep cliff ... Trump just creating the basis for all sorts of debt bubbles, shady speculation and GFC mark 2!

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/03/b...gulations.html

[winner69]

True - noticed that as well. He just has to give his billionaire friends at wall street some gifts.

Unless the senate discovers that they have some spine (and I doubt that) - lets be prepared for an outrageous continuation of the current bull run, ended by a deep cliff ... Trump just creating the basis for all sorts of debt bubbles, shady speculation and GFC mark 2!

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/03/b...gulations.html

As well doing away with the need for oil/ resource companies to disclose payments to foreign governments .....and oal companies can now dispose waste into streams