Black Monday

[Lewylewylewy]

Does any one else find it humorous that the whole worlds investment opportunities and success hinge on one (potentially mentally ill) person?

We really do live in the Orwellian society that we often joke about.

Personally, I enjoy the vollatility, it's fun and fully of opportunity. I could do with a nice crash.

[percy]

I am extremely nervous about the NZ market.Although I think the outlook for NZ is excellent,I am concerned about the valuations of a number of stocks.I have held EBO for a number of years,the PE goes from about 13 to 16.Today it is 21.94.I hold,having sold 60% of my holding.
Other PEs which I can not understand are; AIA 30.54,FRE 22.07,RBD 22.59 [held],MFT 22.25,and POT 38.73.
All very fine companies,but a great number of years' earnings have been built into their share prices.
Is it different this time.?

[couta1]

I am extremely nervous about the NZ market.Although I think the outlook for NZ is excellent,I am concerned about the valuations of a number of stocks.I have held EBO for a number of years,the PE goes from about 13 to 16.Today it is 21.94.I hold,having sold 60% of my holding.
Other PEs which I can not understand are; AIA 30.54,FRE 22.07,RBD 22.59 [held],MFT 22.25,and POT 38.73.
All very fine companies,but a great number of years' earnings have been built into their share prices.
Is it different this time.?

I only hold 4 stocks currently and they all have PE's of 10 or below except A2 which is fully deserving of its PE of 28 ish.

[Jinx]

I am extremely nervous about the NZ market.Although I think the outlook for NZ is excellent,I am concerned about the valuations of a number of stocks.I have held EBO for a number of years,the PE goes from about 13 to 16.Today it is 21.94.I hold,having sold 60% of my holding.
Other PEs which I can not understand are; AIA 30.54,FRE 22.07,RBD 22.59 [held],MFT 22.25,and POT 38.73.
All very fine companies,but a great number of years' earnings have been built into their share prices.
Is it different this time.?

An interesting thought I've previously had about the NZX (and international relations)
If the Dow continues to rise so steadily because of trump based policy (tax cuts, lack of monetary policy, interest rates at near 0) then can we really say the NZX won't benefit? Not only this but with China being shunned from the US Chinese investors will be looking for some place to park their money that isn't trying to start a trade war, New Zealand ticks a lot of boxes. As long as trump continues on his almost random and very compulsive policy choices then the market has neither positive or negative sentiment, only confusion.

To me it seems like trump wants monetary policy that will keep him and his many other rich mates making serious money investing. Although high P/E's are a problem, it's seen globally with many companies having P/E's in the hundreds, if a company can have a global impact and provide infrastructure in a huge number of ways then its hard to argue against high P/E's if people are willing to keep them up.

Discl: If the Euro zone gets more disbanded and trump gets impeached who knows what could happen. Otherwise see NZ as a safe haven in every respect.

[bull....]

An interesting thought I've previously had about the NZX (and international relations)
If the Dow continues to rise so steadily because of trump based policy (tax cuts, lack of monetary policy, interest rates at near 0) then can we really say the NZX won't benefit? Not only this but with China being shunned from the US Chinese investors will be looking for some place to park their money that isn't trying to start a trade war, New Zealand ticks a lot of boxes. As long as trump continues on his almost random and very compulsive policy choices then the market has neither positive or negative sentiment, only confusion.

To me it seems like trump wants monetary policy that will keep him and his many other rich mates making serious money investing. Although high P/E's are a problem, it's seen globally with many companies having P/E's in the hundreds, if a company can have a global impact and provide infrastructure in a huge number of ways then its hard to argue against high P/E's if people are willing to keep them up.

Discl: If the Euro zone gets more disbanded and trump gets impeached who knows what could happen. Otherwise see NZ as a safe haven in every respect.

monetary policy around the world has changed, at the moment rates are turning up, stimulus is being peeled back just this week yellen said many rate hikes this year if things keep rolling nicely along.
inflation has ticked up.
NZX is out of favour because our market is a yield market not many growth companies so with the above occurring is it any surprise money is leaving the nzx and going to countries where you can invest in stocks for growth.
and when you got a govt in the us that is willing to do fiscal policy for growth makes sense why dow etc are going up on the other hand nz govt is doing very little fiscal growth that's why housing , infrastructure even company tax will be uncompetitve soon , bad capital markets etc etc is it any wonder the nzx only went up during a low monetary environment.
look at all the well known fund managers jumping out at the top? maybe they don't want to diminish there bull market record.

[skid]

An interesting thought I've previously had about the NZX (and international relations)
If the Dow continues to rise so steadily because of trump based policy (tax cuts, lack of monetary policy, interest rates at near 0) then can we really say the NZX won't benefit? Not only this but with China being shunned from the US Chinese investors will be looking for some place to park their money that isn't trying to start a trade war, New Zealand ticks a lot of boxes. As long as trump continues on his almost random and very compulsive policy choices then the market has neither positive or negative sentiment, only confusion.

To me it seems like trump wants monetary policy that will keep him and his many other rich mates making serious money investing. Although high P/E's are a problem, it's seen globally with many companies having P/E's in the hundreds, if a company can have a global impact and provide infrastructure in a huge number of ways then its hard to argue against high P/E's if people are willing to keep them up.

Discl: If the Euro zone gets more disbanded and trump gets impeached who knows what could happen. Otherwise see NZ as a safe haven in every respect.

The bigger they are (DOW) the harder they fall and a president who has no experience yet of handling a crises---we'll see how that goes when it comes---right now he is big business's darling

[arc]

What he understands is making money (but only within a narrow field). Im hearing more and more concern that he doesn't understand politics and international relations, or even public relations. the disconnect between running a money making business and running a nation to successfully navigate/operate within the international arena framework...will bite

Sooner or later there is going to be an implosion.

[Lewylewylewy]

What he understands is making money (but only within a narrow field). Im hearing more and more concern that he doesn't understand politics and international relations, or even public relations. the disconnect between running a money making business and running a nation to successfully navigate/operate within the international arena framework...will bite

Sooner or later there is going to be an implosion.

Agreed, especially about the narrow field. From that position there would be so many ways to make money. Better money than his silly negotiation and advertising standpoint, and less obvious to the public too.

I think there is also the possibility that solve layers of government and policy might stop him doing anything too stupid, but only to the point where it wouldn't deminish the position of President in the public eye.

[Lewylewylewy]

The outcome of tax reform is the indicator I have my eye on.

[arc]

In relation to comments made by others here about key people leaving top positions, we all need to ask is there more to the story?. Are they just playing safe or expecting something to develop in the relatively near future, or is it a sideways step to a even better position?

Some Hedge fund managers see times of uncertainty ahead.

https://goldstocksforex.com/2017/02/...-donald-trump/