Black Monday

[blobbles]

Another good one from RNZ this morning:

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/pr...e-coming-crash

Touches quite a lot on fundamental economics and how people are increasingly realising how right Minsky was. He gives NZ property/debt market "1 - 2 years"... though arguably with the recent Auckland house prices dropping and subsequent listing rush, we may be tipping over the edge already (last part is my speculation).

Interesting his solution was to get the government to just "give everyone money/their fiat currency" with the proviso that those who are indebted use it to reduce debt, those that are not use it to invest into shares/the productive economy to ensure inflation is managed. He talks about how he was taken seriously by Rudd in Australia though who came up with the first home buyer grant, which has ballooned to first home buyers in Melbourne now getting ~$34k in first home buyer subsidies, exacerbating the housing issue there.

[Leftfield]

Another good one from RNZ this morning:

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/pr...e-coming-crash

Thanks for sharing Blobbles......like you I found it a refreshing take.....he makes a lot of sense and key message to me was, reduce your borrowing/gearing (mine is zero) and be prepared for a crunch. IMHO his 'solution' of a 'free' cash grant would not work in the real world as most people would spend a money 'gift' on the wrong things. Be magic if they all decided to spend it on shares in NZX companies tho!!

[Biscuit]

Thanks for sharing Blobbles......like you I found it a refreshing take.....he makes a lot of sense and key message to me was, reduce your borrowing/gearing (mine is zero) and be prepared for a crunch. IMHO his 'solution' of a 'free' cash grant would not work in the real world as most people would spend a money 'gift' on the wrong things. Be magic if they all decided to spend it on shares in NZX companies tho!!

I have not listened to the interview. Not sure how helicopter money can help since large parts of the world are already addicted to money printing! The economy works by cycles - boom and bust. Just let it happen...

[bull....]

hit the 7500 top to perfection now just chopping around in the range so have to wait see which way it breaks.

finished right at the top of the range - wow what will next week bring? breakout or breakdown.

US markets are breaking out so will we follow.

[bull....]

some good movement in nz stocks in Aus yesterday, wall st flat last night but up friday.. see what happens this week breakout measurement would be 8100 as a guestimate. time will tell

[bull....]

nzx couldnt manage to breakout, tried but back in the range, see what happens

[arc]

Im noticing an increase in the number of these "negative statement" types of documents.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-0...-order/8671756


Thoughts folks...

[JBmurc]

Im noticing an increase in the number of these "negative statement" types of documents.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-0...-order/8671756


Thoughts folks...

Yes every great party comes to an end the bigger the indulgence the bigger the hangover .....

Hoping I'm smart enough to load up into BEAR.asx and BBOZ.asx and move funds towards safer investments ...before the correction we always have ...

[BlackPeter]

Im noticing an increase in the number of these "negative statement" types of documents.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-0...-order/8671756


Thoughts folks...

Probably about the time of the year ... summer in the Northern hemisphere, most people who count either on holidays or thinking about going. Nothing else to write about, so why not warm up the economic crisis story from last year or from the year before? I guess the monster of Loch Ness (which used to fill the tabloids previously in this time of the year) must be close to retirement now, and crisis stories always sell good - nearly as exciting as watching scary movie for the umpth time

I think everything else related to the next downturn has been already stated on this thread. It will happen - at some stage. It is overdue, but so is the "big one" in the Southern Alps and in California. We are in unchartered waters. And given that the crisis industry correctly predicted 147 of the last 2 downturns (don't check, I made this number up ) am I sure that whenever the next crisis comes there will be some doomsday prophet proudly claiming that they told us so. They will however not mention the last 10 forecasts of theirs which have been wrong.

Fact is - an economic crisis can come at any time ... and normally it will come when people don't expect them and become over-confident. From that perspective: good that somebody is warming up the old doomsday stories ... I started to miss them and wondered already whether we are now moving into the market phase "be fearful when everybody else is greedy".

As usual - buy stocks producing real stuff people need, diversify (as well across asset classes) and be careful: It is a dangerous world out there including a lot of doomsday preachers.

Discl: (roughly) 50% non-REIT shares (including international), 30% REITS (most of them as well listed), 20% cash & bonds, no gold, no cryptocr*p and mainly the family home (not added to the "100%" as property (but the REITS).

[RupertBear]

John Ryders global newsletter out today. Worth a read www.globalnews.co.nz. He thinks an immediate reversal in share markets is unlikely but rising interest rates will impact on shares and he thinks the good times are nearing an end. He recommends having a good exit strategy in place for the next 6 month.