Black Monday

[Hoop]

John Ryders global newsletter out today. Worth a read www.globalnews.co.nz. He thinks an immediate reversal in share markets is unlikely but rising interest rates will impact on shares and he thinks the good times are nearing an end. He recommends having a good exit strategy in place for the next 6 month.

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Very brief newsletter but informative in saying that the markets have reached a pivot point...

I believe the best exit strategy is not repostioning ones portfolio, its reconditioning ones mental makeup....

[silu]

My strategy is to sell off most of my holdings to purchase my first home. I thought I keep my nest egg growing until I think it has reached a ceiling and me thinks this is just around the corner.

[couta1]

My strategy is to sell off most of my holdings to purchase my first home. I thought I keep my nest egg growing until I think it has reached a ceiling and me thinks this is just around the corner.

Hard to know who is right, or the timing of a downturn, however some stocks like Air are very pricey now IMO, no margin of safety and I'm not comfortable buying in that situation regardless of where the price heads to in the short term, or the special divvy potential up ahead. SUM other stocks that are unloved atm have already had a big correction, so would be more defensive in a downturn.

[Bobdn]

This is one of those glorious days, even my Warehouse shares are up (maybe thanks to Torpedo7 and it's support of Team NZ).

I'm savouring the sea of green.

[Lewylewylewy]

I think that so long as NZ doesn't increase interest rates, things will go great. Main indicators I'm watching are perceived inflation and suggestions from those in charge of increasing rates to match overseas.

I don't think the latter will happen because I think they've got more sense and will like us to have a slightly devalued currency to help trade. Based on this I'm "stocked up" on FPH and RBD with overseas interests.

I'm always worried, but not that worried at the moment.

[JBmurc]

I think that so long as NZ doesn't increase interest rates, things will go great. Main indicators I'm watching are perceived inflation and suggestions from those in charge of increasing rates to match overseas.

I don't think the latter will happen because I think they've got more sense and will like us to have a slightly devalued currency to help trade. Based on this I'm "stocked up" on FPH and RBD with overseas interests.

I'm always worried, but not that worried at the moment.

In New Zealand, the OCR remains at 1.75%, but higher funding costs
and greater competition for retail bank deposits should slowly push
interest rates up. Moody's has downgraded the credit ratings of the
big four Australian-based banks, and their New Zealand subsidiaries,
which will put pressure on offshore funding costs.
--John Ryder's Global Newsletter

[bull....]

always doom and gloom merchants around trying to call the end of the bull market guess someone will be right one day

anyway

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...conomic-growth

another rate hike for sure this year i reckon, find out the feds thinking tomorrow.

In NZ housing is slowing thank goodness dont want a bust do wee and election coming up as well but low rates support the market but as always what happens overseas will decide our fate.

[Joshuatree]

With North Koreas launching an IBM that can reach Alaska ,are we in for a military response from the USA.It certainly is a game changer and an excuse to act. Would ba Black Monday par excellence and cash would be king.

[BlackPeter]

With North Koreas launching an IBM that can reach Alaska ,are we in for a military response from the USA.It certainly is a game changer and an excuse to act. Would ba Black Monday par excellence and cash would be king.

Not sure I'd really expect Trump to be that dumb, but you never know. However - if the unexpected happens, than I would not be sure about the "cash is king" statement. Share prices world wide didn't do too bad during WWII (until close to the very end) but cash value turned (at least if invested on the wrong side of the conflict) quite soon to ZERO. Shares recovered quite well after the conflict.

I think diversifying across industries and geographies as well as buying stocks of companies producing essentials (which would unfortunately include weapons) might be a better strategy. Obviously - everybody needs some cash (or something which can easily be turned into cash) to get through a crisis period.

[Joshuatree]

Sorry BP, i mean cash to pick up possible bargains( never weapons, tobacco, gambling for 3 , my personal choice). Certainly tension is ratcheting up atm to maybe a new level; lets hope Kim Jong Jun has an unfortunate permanent coma type accident. Trump will be advised what to do; he respects his military commanders.