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Thread: Black Monday

  1. #3421
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    OMG, not just one black swan lurking but three

    Some time in the future things won't be as good as it is today

    http://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazona...70722_TFTF.pdf
    The three are all expected so they are not black swan events :-)

  2. #3422
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewylewylewy View Post
    Real estate investors are seen as tall poppies because of the perception that people can't buy hoses because they have priced them out.

    Regarding extreme government not being good for a country, I will faceciously refer to Germanys economic success post WW2 lol. Of course they're paying for it now with white guilt immigration policy ��
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewylewylewy View Post
    I like my messages to be a little kryptic,
    I'll leave the speelling mistakes in ��
    Your first statement is neither funny nor correct. Why would you call the post WW2 government in Germany (under chancellor Adenauer) "extreme"?

    Your second statement is racist, dumb and offensive. Shame on you.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  3. #3423
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bjauck View Post
    Markets don't like uncertainty.

    Why are real estate investors tall poppies? Investing in real estate is the preferred and acceptable thing to do to build up a nest egg in the NZ system.

    Real estate investors should be on safer ground than stock market investors as in New Zealand there are many more voters who directly own real estate than own shares....certainly in $ terms.

    How should NZ politicians treat rich foreigners?

    I would guess that beneficiaries have been the target for many politicians over the years.
    Going forward with the very high cost of property living costs to income in NZ more and more voters will be voting for a anti-wealthy property, Pro rich foreigners owners of NZ land Govt.. like a LabGreenNZF >> this of course could well give as many "Black Mondays"

    IMHO if it wasn't for the National Tax cut vote bride ...I think English wouldn't been looking down a second defeat as PM >>
    Last edited by JBmurc; 24-07-2017 at 10:35 AM.
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  4. #3424
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    Not advocating anything wartime germany did, just referencing the fact that after the war germany was the only country that didn't have financial problems and their politics were about as extreme as it gets. Clearly far side politics does not equal melt down. Other extremes resulting in financial success (note that throughout, I'm only talking about financial success here) is China. Most recently, Trump boom is another example. I agree that the comment was tongue in cheek.

    Or was it the comment about how Germany has gone the other way with immigration policy that offended? I'm sorry, but white guilt is a real thing. There are races out there that hate white people (I myself, suffered a lot living in Leicester, UK from racism against white people and have had cars driving past shouting abuse, threats violence, theft, etc.). But those people want to live in white countries because their country is a nightmare. In Germany this has resulted in crime (mainly rapes and robbery). Why do they accept people from countries where it's acceptable to rape women because they're lesser beings, or rob people because that's just what you do? white guilt from the war and slavery.

    So what can we do about this? We can say "ummm, you're a racist, ummm I'm telling!", we can say nothing, or we can make bad jokes about it.

    Seriously though... Please don't tell on me

  5. #3425
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBmurc View Post
    Going forward with the very high cost of property living costs to income in NZ more and more voters will be voting for a anti-wealthy property, Pro rich foreigners owners of NZ land Govt.. like a LabGreenNZF >> this of course could well give as many "Black Mondays"

    IMHO if it wasn't for the National Tax cut vote bride ...I think English wouldn't been looking down a second defeat as PM >>
    Perhaps. A majority of households are still owner occupied. The proportion of owner-occupiers who vote is probably greater than the proportion of renters. Owner-occupiers have seen the value of their assets increase during the current government's period of office. That may favour the Party of Least Change (National). I think the political power of owners is greater than renters - still - although that could change in the medium term if socio-economic trends continue.

    The disaffected and those who have missed out on tax cuts, the change in the economy and the boom in asset prices may favour the parties of more radical change (the part of the electorate that may have favoured DT and Brexit in the US and UK.)

  6. #3426
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    There are roughly 2.2 to 2.3 million home owners in NZ.

    I can't say exactly as some of those will be trusts / companies that are owned by people who are already listed as a home owner (and therefore I counted twice), and some will be people with the same name that I counted as one person.

    There are an estimated 4.8 million people in NZ according to Stats NZ, I don't know how many of those can vote.

  7. #3427
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewylewylewy View Post
    Not advocating anything wartime germany did, just referencing the fact that after the war germany was the only country that didn't have financial problems and their politics were about as extreme as it gets.
    Not that this discussion belongs on this thread ... but if you drop very controversial statements, than maybe you should first check the facts. Germany paid a high price for losing WWII. And I still don't get which politics of post war Germany have been extreme? If you claim to state "facts", than please provide them.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lewylewylewy View Post
    Or was it the comment about how Germany has gone the other way with immigration policy that offended? I'm sorry, but white guilt is a real thing. There are races out there that hate white people (I myself, suffered a lot living in Leicester, UK from racism against white people and have had cars driving past shouting abuse, threats violence, theft, etc.). But those people want to live in white countries because their country is a nightmare. In Germany this has resulted in crime (mainly rapes and robbery). Why do they accept people from countries where it's acceptable to rape women because they're lesser beings, or rob people because that's just what you do? white guilt from the war and slavery.
    True - racism comes in all colours of the skin and it is always ugly. Statements that "fugitives come from countries where it is ok to rape women" is racist and wrong. And while it is correct that the fugitives who arrived in Germany do have a higher representation in the crime stats than the natives (quite similar to Maoris here, only that its here the natives with the higher rate of criminality) would I think that a big part of the problem in Germany is caused by the age and gender of most of the refugees. Most of them are young and male, this is the group of the population which is in all human races more adrenalin driven and ready to commit crimes. It is also true that many of the "rapes" and robberies" spread on social media never happened. We unfortunately live in a time of fake news.

    Look - this is a difficult subject and if you want to know more about it, than create an appropriate thread and lets continue there. Making "jokes" about it and at the same time spreading fake news is a quite sad way to deal with the issue that too many Westerners are happy to bomb the living hell out of Syria and Iraq and are quite happy to sell and supply weapons to anybody who asks (and pays) for it, but not too many are prepared to deal with the human problems we are creating that way.
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 24-07-2017 at 03:16 PM.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  8. #3428
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    Than or then, does it matter or anyone care? There will be a crash than we're all clambering for the exit. Than those who don't get out are screwed. Than the market recovers and the screwed are happy they held. Than those who sold buy in and screw the market. Than is then, but who cares and does it matter?

  9. #3429
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    Time to be a bit more cautious?
    Robert Shiller is concerned that his S&P 500 index is getting a tab too high for comfort, with average PE's of a tab over 30

    Attachment 9035

  10. #3430
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    Quote Originally Posted by Left field View Post
    Time to be a bit more cautious?
    Robert Shiller is concerned that his S&P 500 index is getting a tab too high for comfort, with average PE's of a tab over 30
    There are a great deal of pessimists emerging from the euphoria, many of whom know better than to risk their funds and investors wealth in the great ponzi scheme of global equities markets fuelled by sovereign liquidity that has and is quietly drying up.

    But it's different this time. Yeah right.

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