Black Monday

**Daytr** · 30-08-2015, 02:03 PM

I would suggest a multitude of factors. Sentiment obviously plays a part, but so does TA and when certain levels are triggered the TA traders all jump in or out. The DOW for instance has looked like a sell for six months. Goldman Sachs called it as well.
Then you have the algos who again will be triggered purely from TA.

Obviously these stocks are also held in indices as well & a lot of people trade the index, so if its bought or sold the individual shares that make up the index also have to be bought or sold.

Originally Posted by arc

hahaha it does sound off the edge , no I dont think for a second that its a conspiracy or "evil people"
Tax time is different for different parts of the world so it cant be related to that. The closest other event was the Chinese devalue but that was announced on the 12th?.

I have no theory. I found a pattern that I personally do not understand... end of story

I dont understand crashes, why do they happen, what are the triggers, what are the significant things that contribute to it. Its like the whole world woke up on the 7th and said its Hammer-Time.

You financial wizards out there, tell me what would make almost every top100, top500 across multiple stock exchanges undergo a selldown on the same day, or at least within a 3 day period.
Also in your estimation would the ongoing effects of this initial selldown be the cause of black monday, or is it just a coincidence

**winner69** · 30-08-2015, 02:27 PM

Originally Posted by Major von Tempsky

......

Life continues.

As the man said in the Sydney Morning Herald yesterday the ASX All Ords was down 0.5% last week

Ok not up but just part of the ebbs and flows of a market. ..just a normal week

**arc** · 30-08-2015, 04:56 PM

Yes indeed life continues, thank goodness. Another week another divy

Skid: Sorry to disappoint you but I think I will just go into quiet investigation mode for a while... raving on at 2 in the morning while tired and cranky is not a good image..

. If I find anything significant I will let people know.

Major von Tempsky: I think you are correct in that panic was and still is the prime motivator. If you spook the herd enough then stampede is a certainty.

Winner69: You asked if I had a theory and I dont have one... so I just thought of one now .. This has all happened before: it WILL happen again.

In relation to that, now that Im aware of the "pattern". I will spend some time searching for any others. I think there is a need for an active retrospective-indicator (it has to happen before it can be detected) that raises a BIG red flag within a few hours of this sort of thing happening again. If one knows one is prepared. This last event had a 2 week head start, before black monday, on us... I will start coding something to feed to the neural net that looks for things similar to this last event-pattern.

**Longhaul** · 30-08-2015, 07:01 PM

Thought I'd just leave this here - seems pertinent. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, foresight is even better!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ade-34-million

**skid** · 31-08-2015, 02:25 AM

Originally Posted by Longhaul

Thought I'd just leave this here - seems pertinent. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, foresight is even better!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ade-34-million

He played the market both ways and won--I remember Bob Dyans lyrics--"'I cant help it if Im lucky''

Arc--Im in a different time zone(Thailand atm) if my posts seem at a crazy hour----Im here because I decided to preserve profits on 2 different stocks----Best of luck on your research

Alot would say its no fun being cautious,but I can testify that aint true---meanwhile we all hope it doesnt completely come unstuck as that would be good for not many,especially if banks start to go.

When you have been involved with shares for a while ,it can be very hard to let go..

**arc** · 31-08-2015, 08:57 AM

Longhaul: Thats interesting, I am still relatively new to this game. I started last year with just divy stocks and then had a flutter on growth's. I will have to look up the mechanism of "shorting" as I have not attempted that before. It does sound risky... but knowing what we know now we might be forewarned about "next time".

Skid: Thanks for the reply. Did you have to actually fly there to "preserve the profit"?. Makes my walking from the lounge to the computer room seem very dull by comparison, I am mostly cashed up, just 2 divy payers left which i will ride out while waiting for the bottom of this alice in wonderland market. The hard part is determining the bottom from the hysterical bounce(s). Seems to be a version of cat and mouse, or cat and bear trap...

Today will be interesting, Dow is down S&P is up

**Bobcat.** · 31-08-2015, 11:07 AM

Futures are looking ugly for tonight in the US (currently down 200 points on the Dow, 26 points on the S&P).

Accordingly, the EUR and JPY once again are strengthening against the USD, AUD, and especially the CAD (Brent Oil is now back under $50/b).

Hope you chaps took the opportunity Friday to sell out what you hadn't earlier.

Precious metals may lift tonight but not much else IMO.

BC

**Nasi Goreng** · 31-08-2015, 11:19 AM

This week could be buying opportunity time.

Question for those of you who buy US equities, are any of you buying or considering US equities with kiwi down in the 64 range? It is a double risk in many ways now but some of the stock valuations are starting to look attractive.